Drive for Detroit: Playoff R2 Preview
November 3, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
It's predictable perhaps – and yet still intriguing – how the MHSAA Football Playoffs just a week into the five-week run.
Of 38 teams selected for at-large bids to the 256-team 11-player field, only seven remain.
Of 36 undefeated teams at the end of the regular season, including six in 8-player, 34 are still alive.
At least for now. Two matchups of undefeated opponents are among games highlighted in this week's "Drive for Detroit" preview – powered by MI Student Aid. See those below, and remember to tune in to MHSAA.com for all of this weekend's matchups, scores and next week's matchups as they're determined. All games below are Friday unless noted.
Division 1
Clarkston (8-2) at Davison (10-0)
It’s been four years since these M-15 powers faced off. Clarkston has enjoyed the success since that last matchup, winning Division 1 back-to-back in 2013 and 2014, and now stands in the way of Davison extending its first 10-win season since 2006. Junior Tariq Reid has run for 2,003 yards and 36 touchdowns this fall, and no doubt will be called upon heavily as the Cardinals go for their first District title since 2008.
Others that caught my eye: Rockford (7-3) at Grandville (9-1), Detroit Cass Tech (10-0) at Dearborn (9-1), Macomb Dakota (7-3) at Utica Eisenhower (10-0).
Division 2
Traverse City Central (9-1) at Lowell (10-0)
This could be a history-making evening for Traverse City Central, which is looking to advance to the Regional round for the first time since old Traverse City High did so in 1991. The Trojans vanquished for good rival Traverse City West by a point last week but now face another team that has survived close games as well; reigning Division 2 champion Lowell pulled off a couple of impressive comebacks this fall on the way to a fourth straight season with at least 10 wins.
Others that caught my eye: Birmingham Brother Rice (7-3) at Birmingham Groves (9-1), Grosse Pointe North (8-2) at Grosse Pointe South (7-3), Oak Park (7-3) at Detroit Martin Luther King (8-2) on Saturday.
Division 3
East Grand Rapids (8-2) at Muskegon (9-1)
The west side of the state has earned its football reputation from high-powered matchups like this one could be; these are two of the storied programs in state history, although both also are hungry to add to their legacies. East Grand Rapids is seeking its first MHSAA championship since 2010 and Muskegon is playing to contend for its first since 2008. The Big Reds won their recent meetings in 2014 and 2015, and have yet to be challenged much aside from a Week 2 loss to Lincolnshire, Ill. East Grand Rapids has won seven straight since opening 1-2 with losses to Grand Rapids Catholic Central and later Lowell.
Others that caught my eye: Romulus (9-1) at Allen Park (10-0), Grand Rapids Christian (9-1) at Byron Center (9-1), Coldwater (8-2) at Chelsea (10-0).
Division 4
Marysville (10-0) at Detroit Country Day (10-0), Saturday
Country Day is surging as it seeks its first MHSAA title since 1999; the Yellowjackets have played arguably their three toughest opponents of the season the last three weeks, and handed Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood a decisive 35-7 defeat to open the playoffs. But a defense giving up only eight points per game will face its toughest challenge from a Marysville offense led by 1,000-yard rushers Danta Chrcek (1,595) and Phillip Griffor (1,073). The Vikings are playing for their first 11-win season since 1992.
Others that caught my eye: Hudsonville Unity Christian (8-2) at Benton Harbor (10-0), Lansing Sexton (7-3) at Lake Odessa Lakewood (9-1), Detroit Mumford (8-2) at River Rouge (9-1).
Division 5
Grand Rapids West Catholic (8-2) at Portland (10-0)
It’s hard to not see this as one of the key games in the entire Division 5 bracket. Reigning champion West Catholic opened with a big road win 42-20 last week over Lansing Catholic and now gets the Cougars’ main league rival in Portland, which beat Lansing Catholic by only a point way back in Week 4. The deciding matchup tonight could be the Raiders’ powerful run game and its ability to hold onto the ball (and keep the Falcons' offense off the field) against a West Catholic defense that has given up more than seven points only once since Week 3. (Watch this game tonight on the PrepZone on FoxSportsDetroit.com.)
Others that caught my eye: Remus Chippewa Hills (9-1) at Reed City (10-0), Frankenmuth (9-1) at Freeland (10-0), Muskegon Oakridge (9-1) at Ithaca (10-0) on Saturday.
Division 6
Jackson Lumen Christi (8-2) at Schoolcraft (10-0), Saturday
This could show Schoolcraft’s stature as a contender for its first MHSAA championship since 2001. The Eagles have rumbled to nearly 47 points per game and beat rival Constantine twice in the last three weeks, but can show their stuff on a grander level against one of the state’s best-known powerhouse programs. Lumen Christi hasn’t lost since Week 3 and after opening 1-2 with defeats to West Catholic and Battle Creek Harper Creek. A win this week could be a key confidence boost for the Titans too as they pursue a first Finals trip since 2009.
Others that caught my eye: Maple City Glen Lake (8-2) at Roscommon (9-1), Calumet (9-1) at Negaunee (10-0), Napoleon (8-2) at Grass Lake (9-1).
Division 7
Saugatuck (10-0) at Pewamo-Westphalia (10-0), Saturday
A matchup of offensive stars Jared Smith and Blake Dunn make this one of the state’s most intriguing matchups in any division, regardless of the fact it’s also a rematch of last season’s District Final. Smith is up to 2,108 yards rushing this season on just 166 carries – for a 12.7 yards per carry average – and will go down as one of the top running backs in state history after setting an MHSAA record for single-season yardage as a junior with more than 3,000 as the Pirates finished Division 7 runners-up. Dunn has run for only 1,916 yards this season – 16.1 per carry – and thrown for 729 more.
Others that caught my eye: Detroit Loyola (8-2) at Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett (10-0), Flint Hamady (8-2) at New Lothrop (9-1), Unionville-Sebewaing (9-1) at Ubly (10-0).
Division 8
Mendon (8-2) at Climax-Scotts (10-0)
Climax-Scotts finally broke a four-year playoff losing streak to Mendon last season with an 8-6 first-round win, and should be confident heading into a possible repeat, this time for a District title. The Panthers haven’t been challenged much, aside from a 20-point win over Pittsford in Week 6. Mendon has had to do a little more work under first-year coach and alum Robert Kretschman, but is riding a six-game winning streak and three-win improvement from a year ago. (Watch this game tonight on the PrepZone on FoxSportsDetroit.com.)
Others that caught my eye: Saginaw Nouvel (7-3) at Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (8-2), Newberry (8-2) at St. Ignace (9-1), Lincoln Alcona (9-1) at Frankfort (10-0).
8-Player
Crystal Falls Forest Park (9-1) at Powers North Central (10-0)
Forest Park in Week 2 gave North Central its closest game in two seasons of 8-player football, which means this rematch could go a couple different ways. The Jets, who won that night 60-42 and have scored 56 or more points in every game, may need quarterback Jason Whitens to add significantly to his 36 touchdown passes on only 91 completions this fall if the offenses come out firing again. Or Forest Park and senior running back Dan Nocerini (2,181 yards/39 TDs rushing) could work to keep Whitens off the field and the score a little lower this second time around.
Other Regional Finals: Pickford (9-1) at Engadine (10-0), New Haven Merritt (10-0) at Deckerville (9-0), Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (10-0) at Portland St. Patrick (10-0) on Saturday.
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Lowell downed Greenville in a Division 2 playoff opener last week. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.