Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 1 Preview
October 25, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Everything will seem to speed up from here for 288 Michigan high school football teams beginning their playoff runs this weekend.
Temperatures dip below freezing, practices finish in the dark and urgency is at its utmost this time of year. But soon the reward will come into view – trips to Ford Field for the elite 11-player teams and Superior Dome for the best of the 8-player lineup.
All eight reigning champions and all eight 2017 runners-up are back as 11-player playoffs begin at the District level this weekend. Three of four 8-player finalists from last season, including one champion, are back as those brackets begin at the Pre-Regional level. A total of 125 games will be played tonight, with 19 more Saturday.
In addition to watching live from the stands, there are plenty of opportunity to watch playoff games all over the state either live or later this weekend. FOX Sports Detroit PLUS will bring the Division 7 opener at Kent City against Saugatuck to a live cable audience, and that game joins Haslett at East Lansing and Davison at Oxford to make up this week’s Prep Zone lineup streaming free of charge on FOXSportsDetroit.com and on the FOX Sports app. At least 13 more games will be viewable on MHSAA.tv, either live with subscription or free after 72 hours.
Below is a glance at a game of particular intrigue in each division. “Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid.
Division 1
Grosse Pointe South (8-1) at Dearborn Fordson (8-1)
These two make up one side of what might be the strongest District in Division 1 – on the other side Detroit Cass Tech (9-0) takes on Detroit Western (6-3). The Blue Devils won the Macomb Area Conference White for the third straight season and tripped up only Week 9 against Romeo – over the first eight games, they gave up 5.4 points per game. For the second straight regular season, Fordson’s only loss came to undefeated Belleville – and this time by only three points. The Tractors also are one of only four in-state teams to give the Technicians a close game over the last two years – losing by just five in last season’s District Final – but they can’t look past Grosse Pointe South toward a possible rematch.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Holland West Ottawa (6-3) at Hudsonville (6-3), Canton (6-3) at Detroit Catholic Central (6-3), Romeo (6-3) at Macomb Dakota (7-2). SATURDAY Brighton (7-2) at East Kentwood (8-1).
Division 2
Birmingham Groves (7-2) at Birmingham Seaholm (7-2)
This is one of those few rematches from Week 9 that crop up for the start of the playoffs every season, and Groves won this neighborly meeting 26-9 last week. But don’t think things can’t change over six days – it happens, and the Oakland Activities Association Blue champion Maples still gave up only 13 points per game during their first winning regular season since 2013. That said, Groves certainly knows how to turn it up in the playoffs. The Falcons are making their sixth straight postseason appearance and lost last year’s opener by just three to Brother Rice after making the Semifinals in 2016.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Portage Central (7-2) at Portage Northern (7-2), Warren DeLaSalle (7-2) at Warren Mott (7-2), Walled Lake Western (6-3) at Fenton (7-2), St. Clair Shores Lake Shore (6-3) at Port Huron Northern (8-1).
Division 3
River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2)
River Rouge’s enrollment has grown by more than 350 students over the last four years, as the Panthers went from Division 5-runner-up in 2015 to making Division 4 Semifinals the last two years and now playing in Division 3. Rouge’s only loss this fall was Week 1 to Cass Tech 40-7, and King fell by nearly the same score (42-8) to the Technicians in last week’s Detroit Public School League A championship game. The Crusaders also have lots of postseason experience, winning Division 2 in 2015 and 2016 and making the Semifinals last season before losing by a point to eventual champion Warren DeLaSalle. Just as impressive this fall, King’s only other defeat was by three to reigning Division 3 champion Muskegon – which has won 23 straight games and the rest this season by an average of 42 points per.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY East Grand Rapids (6-3) at Muskegon (9-0), Battle Creek Central (6-3) at Middleville Thornapple Kellogg (7-2), Garden City (6-3) at Warren Woods Tower (8-1), Haslett (8-1) at East Lansing (8-1).
Division 4
Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood (6-3) at Farmington Hills Harrison (6-3), Saturday
The Harrison watch continues as John Herrington, the winningest coach in state football history, leads the Hawks into their final playoffs with the school closing next summer. After two straight losses, Harrison beat Farmington last week to earn an automatic playoff berth and slotted in Division 4 after finishing runner-up in Division 3 last season. The Cranes might not seem as dangerous as a year ago when they set a school wins record going 10-2. But they moved into the tougher Detroit Catholic League AA this fall, and all three losses this season were by seven or fewer points – and now they’re back in the familiar Division 4 bracket.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Paw Paw (7-2) at Three Rivers (8-1), Lake Odessa Lakewood (7-2) vs. Flint Powers Catholic (6-3) at Atwood Stadium, Croswell-Lexington (6-3) at North Branch (7-2), Wyoming Godwin Heights (6-3) at Grand Rapids South Christian (5-4).
Division 5
Grand Rapids West Catholic (5-4) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (7-2)
It’s pretty well-known at this point that West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 titles and made six straight MHSAA Finals. The Falcons had to come back from a 1-3 start this fall and beat Coopersville in Week 9 to earn a shot at becoming an additional qualifier – but keep in mind they won it all in 2013 as an additional qualifier. Unity Christian has looked for a few years like a program inevitably on its way to Ford Field. The Crusaders made the Division 4 Semifinals in 2016 and lost last year’s D4 opener by just six to eventual champion Grand Rapids Catholic Central. They lost out on a share of a league title last week falling to Zeeland East, but both defeats this season came to Division 3 playoff teams – and Unity won three games over teams that made the Division 4 bracket.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Berrien Springs (7-2) at Hopkins (8-1), Lansing Catholic (8-1) at Olivet (8-1), Detroit Osborn (6-3) at Detroit Denby (7-2). SATURDAY Clare (8-1) at Manistee (9-0).
Division 6
Michigan Center (8-1) at Grass Lake (8-1)
The Cardinals missed locking up a second straight Cascades Conference championship by less than a touchdown, falling to eventual title winner Grass Lake 14-10 in Week 6. Michigan Center led until the final two minutes – and this rematch should be a welcome opportunity. The Warriors are coming off a 55-7 loss to Division 8 contender Reading a week ago in the Cascades/Big 8 Conference champions crossover, but before that were giving up only 8.8 points per game. It’s easy to anticipate these teams keeping the score low and close again tonight.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Ishpeming Westwood (7-2) at Calumet (9-0), Ecorse (7-2) vs. Warren Michigan Collegiate (8-1) at Madison Heights Bishop Foley, Constantine (6-3) at Schoolcraft (7-2), Hemlock (8-1) at Montrose (7-2).
Division 7
Saugatuck (8-1) at Kent City (8-1)
Kent City was a seven-point defeat to unbeaten Lake City from a second straight perfect regular season, and the Eagles get the chance to impress the statewide TV crowd by shutting down an Indians offense averaging nearly 51 points per game. Senior Brad Dunn leads Saugatuck with 2,189 yards and 38 touchdowns rushing, and senior Jacob Stewart (918/13) also could go over 1,000 yards for the season for the reigning Division 7 runner-up – which lost only to Schoolcraft, by a point. Kent City gives up just under 11 points per game and held Lake City to 22 below its final regular-season scoring average in that 14-7 Week 8 loss.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Cass City (7-2) at Sandusky (8-1). SATURDAY Harbor Springs (7-2) at Roscommon (8-1), Oscoda (8-1) at Iron Mountain (7-2), Detroit Loyola (6-3) at Madison Heights Bishop Foley (8-1).
Division 8
Pittsford (7-2) at Reading (9-0)
The Rangers have put together strong teams over the years – they’re making their 24th playoff appearance, and the 2008 team reached the Division 7 Semifinals. But it’s a good argument this is Reading’s most impressive team of the playoff era as it outscores opponents 50-4 on average and outscored five playoff-bound teams by an average of 47-7. Pittsford has reasons to be confident too heading into its fifth straight playoffs and seventh in eight seasons. The Wildcats emerged from a four-team league where all four made the playoffs this fall, and their losses both were to playoff-bound teams. Pittsford also beat Waterford Our Lady (see below) big in Week 4 and is giving up only 8.7 points per game this fall.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Waterford Our Lady (5-4) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (8-1), Adrian Lenawee Christian (8-1) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (9-0), Saginaw Nouvel (6-3) at Harbor Beach (8-1), Mendon (5-4) at White Pigeon (7-2).
8-Player Division 1
Kingston (8-1) at Deckerville (7-2)
Deckerville has played in two straight MHSAA Finals, falling just three points short of the Division 1 title a year ago. The Eagles opened their North Central Thumb League Blue title march this fall with a 36-20 win over Kingston in Week 5, and they’re 10-0 against the Cardinals since the teams began playing each other regularly again in 2010. Kingston this fall tied its most wins since 2006, and a ninth victory would tie a high since 1999 – while also breaking the streak and making the Cardinals instant Division 1 contenders.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Battle Creek St. Philip (6-3) at Bellevue (8-1), Genesee (5-4) at Morrice (9-0), Camden-Frontier (5-4) at Colon (8-1).
8-Player Division 2
Crystal Falls Forest Park (5-4) at Powers North Central (8-1)
North Central clinched the Great Lakes Conference West ahead of second-place Forest Park thanks to a 52-28 win Week 6, and that was just the latest meeting between the two with potential championship implications. The Jets downed the Trojans 60-50 in a Regional Final in 2016 on the way to winning the 8-player title, and the Trojans beat the Jets 20-6 in last season’s playoff opener on the way to winning the Division 2 championship. North Central, with its only loss opening night to Engadine, would seem a big favorite this time – but Forest Park is putting up 44 points per game despite giving up 34 and should be comfortable if forced to trade score for score.
Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Rapid River (6-3) at Engadine (8-1), Marion (6-3) at Onekama (7-2), SATURDAY Peck (5-4) vs. Portland St. Patrick (5-4) at Portland.
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Jeremiah Lockhart and Muskegon, here against Reeths-Puffer, are among reigning champions seeking to repeat as playoffs begin this week. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.