Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 3 Preview
November 9, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
We’ve reached the third week of the 2017 Football Playoffs, and we’re going to switch up our “Drive for Detroit” format just a bit to kick off this week’s preview with a closer look at the “March to Marquette."
Eight teams will play Semifinals this weekend to reach the first two-division 8-Player Finals to be hosted Nov. 18 by the Superior Dome at Northern Michigan University.
So we’ll glance at those four games first, followed by one person’s opinion of the most intriguing Regional Finals in all eight 11-player divisions. Six games will be broadcast this weekend either on Prep Zone by FOX Sports Detroit or MHSAA.tv, and the MHSAA playoff scoreboard page remains home to results and next week’s games as they’re determined. The MHSAA Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan Army National Guard, and “Drive for Detroit” is sponsored by MI Student Aid.
8-Player Division 1
Stephenson (9-2) at Central Lake (11-0), Saturday
The move to 8-player clearly has been to Central Lake’s liking after the Trojans went only 2-7 a year ago in its final season with 11 on the field. This Semifinal will be a program first and has come after playoff wins over two other first-year 8-player programs. Stephenson also is playing in its first Semifinal, and the Eagles also have been considered among the best in 8-player most of the season. The only disappointments have been a two-point loss to Rapid River and 12-pointer to reigning champion Powers North Central, two more eventual playoff qualifiers.
Bellevue (10-1) at Deckerville (10-1), Saturday
Bellevue has shined in uncharted territory, reaching 10 wins and the Semifinals for the first time as a first-year 8-player program. Junior Gino Costello (1,756 yards, 21 TDs passing) quaterbacks a balanced attack. Deckerville, the reigning MHSAA runner-up, avenged its lone loss of the season last week in a big win over Morrice. The Eagles are averaging 341 total yards per game with junior Cruz Ibarra and senior Kenton Bowerman combining for more than 1,885 yards and 25 touchdowns rushing.
8-Player Division 2
Crystal Falls Forest Park (8-2) at Pickford (11-0), Friday
Pickford fell in last year’s Semifinal to reigning and also eventual champion Powers North Central, but has stormed back giving up only 184 yards per game. Four runners have at least 580 yards on the ground, and senior quarterback Jonah Bailey has thrown for 1,020 yards and 15 touchdowns. Former 11-player Semifinal regular Forest Park will make its first 8-player appearance at this stage of the playoffs in its second year since making the format switch, with a defense that’s giving up nearly three points fewer per game than a year ago.
Kinde-North Huron (10-1) at Portland St. Patrick (10-1), Saturday
Huron, in its second Semifinal in five seasons but with its most wins ever, has ridden a rushing attack led by senior Mike Craig. He’s run for 1,694 yards – 10.9 per carry – and 25 touchdowns as the Warriors have continued a turnaround from 2-7 a year ago. Portland St. Patrick has had a winning record every season since switching to 8-player in 2012, and this will be the Shamrocks’ first Semifinal since that fall as they look to play in a championship game for the first time since 1997.
11-Player Division 1
Detroit Cass Tech (8-2) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (10-1), Friday
This looks like a measuring stick game for both teams. Most years, reigning Division 1 champion Cass Tech would be an automatic favorite to win the whole thing again – but with two losses this fall, the Technicians have found themselves traveling the last two weeks. That said, those defeats came to reigning Division 2 champ Martin Luther King by 10 points and by only three points to Pickerington Central, which is 10-1 heading into the second round of the Ohio playoffs. Beating Cass Tech immediately lends respect to that opponent, which Chippewa Valley would deserve it if it lands a first Regional title since 2003. The Big Reds’ only loss was by seven in Week 4 to Utica Eisenhower, the Semifinal opponent if both succeed this weekend.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Detroit Catholic Central (7-4) at Canton (10-1), West Bloomfield (9-2) at Utica Eisenhower (11-0), SATURDAY Clarkston (9-2) at Holland West Ottawa (10-1).
11-Player Division 2
Oak Park (9-2) vs. Warren DeLaSalle (9-2) at Wayne State University, Friday
Oak Park is another program that could find itself more in the statewide spotlight with a successful weekend. The Knights have played in a Regional Final only once before, in 2012, and are seeking to make the Semifinals for the first time. Their only losses are to teams still alive – Eisenhower, again, in Division 1, and Division 3 semifinalist Farmington Hills Harrison. The Pilots are notable obstacles, of course. The Detroit Catholic League Central champs outscored their first two playoff opponents by a combined 96-0, and are only three years removed from winning the Division 2 title in 2014.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Traverse City Central (8-3) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (11-0), Flushing (9-2) at Livonia Franklin (9-2), Ypsilanti Lincoln (9-2) at Detroit Martin Luther King (10-1).
11-Player Division 3
DeWitt (10-1) vs. Muskegon (11-0) at Grand Haven, Saturday
On one sideline will be the Panthers, emerging from arguably the strongest District in the state in any division – DeWitt rose from a field including East Grand Rapids, Cedar Springs and Grand Rapids Christian. The Panthers haven’t lost since opening night to Christian and avenged that loss two weeks ago – and they still won’t be considered favorites against the reigning Division 3 runner-up Big Reds. Muskegon has topped 600 points for the second straight season and is down to giving up only 7.1 points per game this fall. Muskegon quarterback La’Darius Jefferson is coming off what’s become a typical 240 yards rushing with four touchdowns with another touchdown pass as well against Zeeland West.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY East Lansing (9-2) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (11-0), Riverview (10-1) at Dearborn Divine Child (10-1), Farmington Hills Harrison (8-3) at Linden (9-2).
11-Player Division 4
Lansing Sexton (8-3) at Edwardsburg (10-1), Saturday
As has been the case in the past, we’re seeing a powerful Sexton in the playoffs after the Big Reds spent most of the regular season facing larger opponents including postseason qualifiers in Divisions 1 and 3. The Big Reds cruised against previously one-loss Lake Odessa Lakewood two weeks ago before edging Plainwell last week by three – intriguing because Plainwell was one of three runners-up in the Wolverine Conference won by the Eddies. Edwardsburg avenged its lone defeat of this fall, to Three Rivers, last week with an 18-point win. The Eddies can call on some experience from last season’s Semifinal run, its second of the last four years.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Williamston (7-4) at Escanaba (9-2), Belding (9-2) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-0), SATURDAY River Rouge (9-2) at Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood (10-1).
11-Player Division 5
Grand Rapids West Catholic (9-2) at Portland (10-1), Friday
This will be the fifth playoff meeting over seven seasons between these perennial powers, with the Raiders’ lone win in the recent series coming when they faced each other in the 2012 Division 5 championship game. The Falcons have won the last four titles, last year after escaping with a 10-7 win over Portland in the District Final, and they are three-point losses to Grand Rapids Catholic Central and Jackson Lumen Christi from perfection this fall. Portland, with three straight shutouts and four over their last five games, likely will be West Catholic’s toughest test so far in the playoffs.
Other Regional Finals: SATURDAY Menominee (8-3) at Reed City (10-1), Muskegon Oakridge (9-2) at Saginaw Swan Valley (10-1), Algonac 10-1) at Frankenmuth (11-0).
11-Player Division 6
Ithaca (11-0) at Montague (11-0), Saturday
The players are likely too young to remember there is some history between these powerhouse programs. Montague in a 2009 Semifinal was the last team to beat Ithaca before the Yellowjackets reeled off 69 straight wins from 2010 through the 2014 Semifinals. This meeting has that kind of weight to it; more than a few would call these the two best teams in Division 6 as Montague has faced one single-digit challenge to its perfect run this year and Ithaca has won all of its games by at least 24 points.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Traverse City St. Francis (10-1) at Millington (10-1), Blissfield (7-4) at Warren Michigan Collegiate (11-0), SATURDAY Jackson Lumen Christi (9-1) at Watervliet (11-0).
11-Player Division 7
Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (7-4) at Madison Heights Madison (11-0), Saturday
Maybe this seems like an odd pick as the intriguing game from this division, given St. Mary qualified for the playoffs as an additional qualifier and Madison hasn’t given up a point in the postseason while enjoying a perfect run. But it’s worth noting that the Falcons are the only team this fall to give a loss to reigning champion Pewamo-Westphalia – which remains alive on the other side of the bracket – and have beaten two league champions over the last two weeks. Madison’s work has been truly impressive, however. The Eagles are playing to make their first Semifinal since 2007 and have survived three games decided by four points or fewer this fall while, like SMCC, playing a schedule loaded with larger opponents.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Saugatuck (8-3) at Cassopolis (10-1), SATURDAY Breckenridge (10-1) at Lake City (11-0), Pewamo-Westphalia (10-1) at Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (10-1).
11-Player Division 8
Lincoln Alcona (9-2) at Saginaw Nouvel (11-0), Friday
Many expecting a Nouvel/Muskegon Catholic Central championship game in three weeks got a shock when reigning champ MCC fell to Mendon in the District Final. Now Lincoln Alcona, coming off its first District title in this sport, is looking to continue the demolition on its side of the bracket. Nouvel is trying to get to the Semifinals for the first time since winning Division 7 in 2011, and the Panthers have had only a few scares this fall – but the latest came last week in a one-point win over Harbor Beach. The Tigers are five points over two losses from a perfect record, and a Regional title would make those close losses easy to forget.
Other Regional Finals: SATURDAY Frankfort (8-2) at Iron River West Iron County (10-1), Climax-Scotts (9-2) at Mendon (11-0), Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-2) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (11-0).
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PHOTOS: Oak Park met Utica Eisenhower at the end of August; both teams will play in 11-player Regional Finals this weekend. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.