Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 3 Preview
November 9, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
We’ve reached the third week of the 2017 Football Playoffs, and we’re going to switch up our “Drive for Detroit” format just a bit to kick off this week’s preview with a closer look at the “March to Marquette."
Eight teams will play Semifinals this weekend to reach the first two-division 8-Player Finals to be hosted Nov. 18 by the Superior Dome at Northern Michigan University.
So we’ll glance at those four games first, followed by one person’s opinion of the most intriguing Regional Finals in all eight 11-player divisions. Six games will be broadcast this weekend either on Prep Zone by FOX Sports Detroit or MHSAA.tv, and the MHSAA playoff scoreboard page remains home to results and next week’s games as they’re determined. The MHSAA Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan Army National Guard, and “Drive for Detroit” is sponsored by MI Student Aid.
8-Player Division 1
Stephenson (9-2) at Central Lake (11-0), Saturday
The move to 8-player clearly has been to Central Lake’s liking after the Trojans went only 2-7 a year ago in its final season with 11 on the field. This Semifinal will be a program first and has come after playoff wins over two other first-year 8-player programs. Stephenson also is playing in its first Semifinal, and the Eagles also have been considered among the best in 8-player most of the season. The only disappointments have been a two-point loss to Rapid River and 12-pointer to reigning champion Powers North Central, two more eventual playoff qualifiers.
Bellevue (10-1) at Deckerville (10-1), Saturday
Bellevue has shined in uncharted territory, reaching 10 wins and the Semifinals for the first time as a first-year 8-player program. Junior Gino Costello (1,756 yards, 21 TDs passing) quaterbacks a balanced attack. Deckerville, the reigning MHSAA runner-up, avenged its lone loss of the season last week in a big win over Morrice. The Eagles are averaging 341 total yards per game with junior Cruz Ibarra and senior Kenton Bowerman combining for more than 1,885 yards and 25 touchdowns rushing.
8-Player Division 2
Crystal Falls Forest Park (8-2) at Pickford (11-0), Friday
Pickford fell in last year’s Semifinal to reigning and also eventual champion Powers North Central, but has stormed back giving up only 184 yards per game. Four runners have at least 580 yards on the ground, and senior quarterback Jonah Bailey has thrown for 1,020 yards and 15 touchdowns. Former 11-player Semifinal regular Forest Park will make its first 8-player appearance at this stage of the playoffs in its second year since making the format switch, with a defense that’s giving up nearly three points fewer per game than a year ago.
Kinde-North Huron (10-1) at Portland St. Patrick (10-1), Saturday
Huron, in its second Semifinal in five seasons but with its most wins ever, has ridden a rushing attack led by senior Mike Craig. He’s run for 1,694 yards – 10.9 per carry – and 25 touchdowns as the Warriors have continued a turnaround from 2-7 a year ago. Portland St. Patrick has had a winning record every season since switching to 8-player in 2012, and this will be the Shamrocks’ first Semifinal since that fall as they look to play in a championship game for the first time since 1997.
11-Player Division 1
Detroit Cass Tech (8-2) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (10-1), Friday
This looks like a measuring stick game for both teams. Most years, reigning Division 1 champion Cass Tech would be an automatic favorite to win the whole thing again – but with two losses this fall, the Technicians have found themselves traveling the last two weeks. That said, those defeats came to reigning Division 2 champ Martin Luther King by 10 points and by only three points to Pickerington Central, which is 10-1 heading into the second round of the Ohio playoffs. Beating Cass Tech immediately lends respect to that opponent, which Chippewa Valley would deserve it if it lands a first Regional title since 2003. The Big Reds’ only loss was by seven in Week 4 to Utica Eisenhower, the Semifinal opponent if both succeed this weekend.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Detroit Catholic Central (7-4) at Canton (10-1), West Bloomfield (9-2) at Utica Eisenhower (11-0), SATURDAY Clarkston (9-2) at Holland West Ottawa (10-1).
11-Player Division 2
Oak Park (9-2) vs. Warren DeLaSalle (9-2) at Wayne State University, Friday
Oak Park is another program that could find itself more in the statewide spotlight with a successful weekend. The Knights have played in a Regional Final only once before, in 2012, and are seeking to make the Semifinals for the first time. Their only losses are to teams still alive – Eisenhower, again, in Division 1, and Division 3 semifinalist Farmington Hills Harrison. The Pilots are notable obstacles, of course. The Detroit Catholic League Central champs outscored their first two playoff opponents by a combined 96-0, and are only three years removed from winning the Division 2 title in 2014.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Traverse City Central (8-3) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (11-0), Flushing (9-2) at Livonia Franklin (9-2), Ypsilanti Lincoln (9-2) at Detroit Martin Luther King (10-1).
11-Player Division 3
DeWitt (10-1) vs. Muskegon (11-0) at Grand Haven, Saturday
On one sideline will be the Panthers, emerging from arguably the strongest District in the state in any division – DeWitt rose from a field including East Grand Rapids, Cedar Springs and Grand Rapids Christian. The Panthers haven’t lost since opening night to Christian and avenged that loss two weeks ago – and they still won’t be considered favorites against the reigning Division 3 runner-up Big Reds. Muskegon has topped 600 points for the second straight season and is down to giving up only 7.1 points per game this fall. Muskegon quarterback La’Darius Jefferson is coming off what’s become a typical 240 yards rushing with four touchdowns with another touchdown pass as well against Zeeland West.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY East Lansing (9-2) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (11-0), Riverview (10-1) at Dearborn Divine Child (10-1), Farmington Hills Harrison (8-3) at Linden (9-2).
11-Player Division 4
Lansing Sexton (8-3) at Edwardsburg (10-1), Saturday
As has been the case in the past, we’re seeing a powerful Sexton in the playoffs after the Big Reds spent most of the regular season facing larger opponents including postseason qualifiers in Divisions 1 and 3. The Big Reds cruised against previously one-loss Lake Odessa Lakewood two weeks ago before edging Plainwell last week by three – intriguing because Plainwell was one of three runners-up in the Wolverine Conference won by the Eddies. Edwardsburg avenged its lone defeat of this fall, to Three Rivers, last week with an 18-point win. The Eddies can call on some experience from last season’s Semifinal run, its second of the last four years.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Williamston (7-4) at Escanaba (9-2), Belding (9-2) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-0), SATURDAY River Rouge (9-2) at Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood (10-1).
11-Player Division 5
Grand Rapids West Catholic (9-2) at Portland (10-1), Friday
This will be the fifth playoff meeting over seven seasons between these perennial powers, with the Raiders’ lone win in the recent series coming when they faced each other in the 2012 Division 5 championship game. The Falcons have won the last four titles, last year after escaping with a 10-7 win over Portland in the District Final, and they are three-point losses to Grand Rapids Catholic Central and Jackson Lumen Christi from perfection this fall. Portland, with three straight shutouts and four over their last five games, likely will be West Catholic’s toughest test so far in the playoffs.
Other Regional Finals: SATURDAY Menominee (8-3) at Reed City (10-1), Muskegon Oakridge (9-2) at Saginaw Swan Valley (10-1), Algonac 10-1) at Frankenmuth (11-0).
11-Player Division 6
Ithaca (11-0) at Montague (11-0), Saturday
The players are likely too young to remember there is some history between these powerhouse programs. Montague in a 2009 Semifinal was the last team to beat Ithaca before the Yellowjackets reeled off 69 straight wins from 2010 through the 2014 Semifinals. This meeting has that kind of weight to it; more than a few would call these the two best teams in Division 6 as Montague has faced one single-digit challenge to its perfect run this year and Ithaca has won all of its games by at least 24 points.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Traverse City St. Francis (10-1) at Millington (10-1), Blissfield (7-4) at Warren Michigan Collegiate (11-0), SATURDAY Jackson Lumen Christi (9-1) at Watervliet (11-0).
11-Player Division 7
Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (7-4) at Madison Heights Madison (11-0), Saturday
Maybe this seems like an odd pick as the intriguing game from this division, given St. Mary qualified for the playoffs as an additional qualifier and Madison hasn’t given up a point in the postseason while enjoying a perfect run. But it’s worth noting that the Falcons are the only team this fall to give a loss to reigning champion Pewamo-Westphalia – which remains alive on the other side of the bracket – and have beaten two league champions over the last two weeks. Madison’s work has been truly impressive, however. The Eagles are playing to make their first Semifinal since 2007 and have survived three games decided by four points or fewer this fall while, like SMCC, playing a schedule loaded with larger opponents.
Other Regional Finals: FRIDAY Saugatuck (8-3) at Cassopolis (10-1), SATURDAY Breckenridge (10-1) at Lake City (11-0), Pewamo-Westphalia (10-1) at Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (10-1).
11-Player Division 8
Lincoln Alcona (9-2) at Saginaw Nouvel (11-0), Friday
Many expecting a Nouvel/Muskegon Catholic Central championship game in three weeks got a shock when reigning champ MCC fell to Mendon in the District Final. Now Lincoln Alcona, coming off its first District title in this sport, is looking to continue the demolition on its side of the bracket. Nouvel is trying to get to the Semifinals for the first time since winning Division 7 in 2011, and the Panthers have had only a few scares this fall – but the latest came last week in a one-point win over Harbor Beach. The Tigers are five points over two losses from a perfect record, and a Regional title would make those close losses easy to forget.
Other Regional Finals: SATURDAY Frankfort (8-2) at Iron River West Iron County (10-1), Climax-Scotts (9-2) at Mendon (11-0), Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-2) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (11-0).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTOS: Oak Park met Utica Eisenhower at the end of August; both teams will play in 11-player Regional Finals this weekend. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.