Drive for Detroit: Week 3 Preview

September 8, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

If Week 2 of the Michigan high school football season was loaded with matchups anticipated statewide, this week is just about the opposite – these games matter just as much, but it will likely take a few weeks to find out how they will impact the rest of this fall.

A pair of reigning MHSAA champions and a pair of neighbors who share a stadium are among highlighted matchups in this week’s Drive for Detroit preview, powered by MI Student Aid

But many of the other intriguing games feature teams off to quick starts for the first time in a while and still working to prove they’ll be in the mix at the end after showing that potential during the season's first two weeks.

Bay & Thumb

Lake Fenton (2-0) at Flint Beecher (2-0)

Although neither of these teams was among co-champions of the Genesee Area Conference Red last season, they’re annually among teams to beat in that league – and so far that looks to be the case again this fall. Beecher – which downed Lake Fenton 27-26 a year ago – has outscored its first two opponents by a combined 59-0. The Blue Devils’ early stretch has been tougher, but last week’s 18-14 win over 2015 playoff qualifier Olivet makes their start arguably more impressive as well.

Others that caught my eye: Ortonville Brandon (2-0) at Fenton (0-2), Detroit Loyola (1-1) at Marine City (0-2), Harbor Beach (1-1) at Reese (2-0), Croswell-Lexington (2-0) at Richmond (1-1).

Greater Detroit

Northville (2-0) at Walled Lake Western (2-0)

Last week’s 33-30 win over Canton gave Western 15 straight regular-season victories, and quarterback Cody White is one of the most discussed players across the state – he threw for 122 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 119 and two against the Chiefs. But Northville also was perfect during the regular season in 2015 and is coming off two similarly impressive wins over Dearborn and Brighton to kick off this fall.

Others that caught my eye: Southfield Arts & Technology (1-1) at Birmingham Groves (2-0), Dearborn Fordson (2-0) at Belleville (1-1), Detroit East English (1-1) at Detroit Central Collegiate (1-1), Oxford (1-1) at Clarkston (1-1).

Mid-Michigan

Fowlerville (2-0) at Portland (2-0)

Most seasons, Williamston/Lansing Catholic would be the game to see, or one of them, in the Capital Area Activities Conference White. But Fowlerville’s best start since 2009 is providing a spark of anticipation for a program that won a lot during the 1990s and 2000s – and quarterback Nick Semke (166 yards/4 TDs rushing, 201 yards/2 TDs passing) is another reason to be interested. All of that said, Portland is coming off a 40-0 win over annual playoff team Hillsdale and riding its typical tough running attack, led by one of the Lansing area’s best in Logan Lefke.

Others that caught my eye: Williamston (1-1) at Lansing Catholic (2-0), Lake Odessa Lakewood (2-0) at Perry (1-1), Mason (2-0) at St. Johns (0-2), Laingsburg (2-0) at Dansville (1-1).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Traverse City West (2-0) vs. Traverse City Central (2-0) at Thirlby Field

These rivals will celebrate the 20th anniversary of the split of old Traverse City High with a Patriot Game (see story on Second Half) and one of the most anticipated matchups in this rivalry since it began in 1997. West is off to its first 2-0 start since 2004, having stunned Midland on opening night by 28 points and come back with another 28-point win over Grand Haven. Central, which has beaten West in two straight, didn’t lose a regular-season game last season and outscored Bay City Western and Marquette by a combined 86-20 over the first two weeks.

Others that caught my eye: Cheboygan (1-1) at Boyne City (0-2), Rogers City (1-1) at Lincoln Alcona (1-1), Oscoda (1-1) at Whittemore-Prescott (2-0, East Jordan (2-0) at Central Lake (1-1).

Southeast & Border

Adrian Madison (2-0) at Clinton (2-0)

Reigning Division 6 runner-up Clinton is a powerhouse, with a combined record of 45-4 over the last four seasons and two comfortable wins this fall to extend its regular-season winning streak to 38. But Madison has earned the opportunity to hope; the Trojans gave Clinton arguably the latter’s best regular-season game last season before falling 37-21 and are off to their first 2-0 start since 2013. Madison hasn’t made the playoffs since 2009, and not finished above .500 since that fall, but starts the Tri-County Conference schedule having reversed a one-point 2015 loss to Onsted with a one-point win last week.

Others that caught my eye: Brooklyn Columbia Central (2-0) at Hudson (2-0), Hillsdale (1-1) at Dundee (1-1), East Lansing (1-1) at Jackson (1-1), Grosse Ile (2-0) at New Boston Huron (2-0).

Southwest Corridor

Stevensville Lakeshore (2-0) at Portage Central (2-0)

The narrative here hasn’t changed much over the last few seasons; one of these two has won the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West championship every year over the last four. Portage Central beat Lakeshore 7-6 last season and has won 16 of its last 17 regular-season games since losing to the Lancers by three in 2014. Both have romped to start this fall, Central outscoring its opponents 77-8 and Lakeshore 82-34.

Others that caught my eye: Jackson Lumen Christi (1-1) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (2-0), Portage Northern (1-1) at St. Joseph (2-0), Dowagiac (1-1) at Three Rivers (1-1), Kalamazoo Central (0-2) at Kalamazoo Loy Norrix (0-2).

Upper Peninsula

Bark River-Harris (2-0) at Newberry (2-0)

Bark River-Harris has enjoyed a rejuvenation going a combined 16-6 over the last two seasons and sharing the Mid-Eastern Conference title in 2015. Is Newberry next to make a jump? The Indians have been building with two playoffs appearances after a series of sub.-500 seasons and opened this fall with 30+ point wins over Harbor Springs and Munising. Either way, this should be entertaining – the teams scored 90 points between them as the Broncos won 56-34 last year.

Others that caught my eye: Iron Mountain (2-0) at Iron River West Iron County (1-1), Gaylord (1-1) at Escanaba (2-0), Johannesburg-Lewiston (1-1) at St. Ignace (1-1), Gladstone (1-1) at Negaunee (2-0).

West Michigan

Zeeland West (2-0) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (2-0)

It’s a rare treat when two reigning MHSAA champions match up, and there will be plenty of star power when reigning Division 4 winner Zeeland West faces the returning Division 5 champion Falcons. It’s been new coach, same story for West Catholic, which opened by avenging last year’s loss to Jackson Lumen Christi and has won 13 straight. Zeeland West has won 40 of its last 41 games and started this fall beating a pair that went a combined 16-5 a year ago.

Others that caught my eye: Hudsonville (2-0) at East Kentwood (2-0), Lowell (2-0) at East Grand Rapids (1-1), Grand Rapids Christian (2-0) at Wyoming (2-0), Muskegon Mona Shores (1-1) at Rockford (0-2).

8-Player

Waldron (2-0) at Portland St. Patrick (2-0) on Saturday

The Spartans posted their best finish, 8-2, as an 8-player team last fall after breaking a four-game losing streak to the Shamrocks with a 32-24 victory in Week 3. The offense that put up 46 points per game in 2015 is still rolling and scored 90 over the last two weeks. But St. Patrick has put up a combined 104 points in its first two games and no doubt has been circling this one as it looks to return to MHSAA title contention.

Others that caught my eye: Rapid River (1-1) at Webberville (2-0), Engadine (2-0) at Pickford (2-0).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: A Hudsonville receiver pulls in a catch and begins to break away from Holt defenders during the Eagles’ Week 2 victory. (Photo by Jeremy Sampson.)

Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.