Drive for Detroit: Week 4 Preview
September 19, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
As we cruise into Week 4 of this high school football season, be ready for a few curveballs and change-ups.
For starters: Something just doesn't feel right about not featuring the latest meetings between Detroit Martin Luther King and Cass Tech and Traverse City West and Central, like we have almost every season since beginning these previews in 2012. But other games from those parts of the state are potentially bigger this time around.
Read on for more on many of the matchups that especially stuck out from this week's schedule. Be sure as well to check out this week's MHSAA.tv schedule featuring 25 games including seven mentioned below.
And because those two games mentioned above are still going to mean a lot, potentially, here are a few quick notes: The King/Cass winner will move to 2-2 and the loser to 1-3, with the teams likely to meet again in the league playoffs and the loser of that rematch very possibly missing the MHSAA postseason. Both got to 1-2 after playing some of the toughest opening competition of any teams statewide. Meanwhile, the West/Central “Patriot Game” will draw more than 10,000 fans downtown tonight, and the winner will be a frontrunner to win the Big North Conference title. West was the champ and Central second last season thanks to West's 21-14 win of the Trojans.
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Bay & Thumb
Frankenmuth (3-0) at Freeland (3-0)
These two have met six times over the last four seasons, four in nonleague contests and twice in the playoffs, with Freeland holding a 4-2 edge. The realigned Tri-Valley Conference East has them both in the same league this fall and as the only unbeaten teams overall after three weeks (Saginaw Swan Valley also is 2-0 in league play, 2-1 overall). Freeland has pulled out a couple of close games this fall against tough opponents, while the Eagles have won all of their games (against a less imposing group) by at least 29 points – but fell to the Falcons in last year’s Week 9 matchup 15-8.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY New Lothrop (3-0) at Montrose (3-0), Davison (3-0) at Flint Powers Catholic (3-0), Richmond (3-0) at Croswell-Lexington (2-1), Alma (1-2) at Saginaw Swan Valley (2-1).
Greater Detroit
Brighton (3-0) at Plymouth (3-0)
The Wildcats took a nice step last fall after posting sub-.500 records in 2016 and 2017, finishing 6-4. Taking down reigning league champion Brighton to move into first alone in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West would be another jump. Plymouth broke a three-year losing streak against rival Canton with a 15-13 win last week, while the Bulldogs are riding an 11-game regular-season winning streak that includes a 24-7 win over Plymouth last season.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Orchard Lake St. Mary's (3-0) at Walled Lake Western (3-0), Detroit Cass Tech (1-2) at Detroit Martin Luther King (1-2), Birmingham Groves (3-0) at Oak Park (2-1), Clarkston (1-2) at West Bloomfield (2-1), Brownstown Woodhaven (3-0) at Wyandotte Roosevelt (3-0).
Mid-Michigan
DeWitt (2-1) at Holt (2-1)
The Rams’ rejuvenation has brought relevance to this matchup after the first meeting between these teams ended with a 49-7 Panthers victory a year ago. With solid wins over Caledonia and Hudsonville and a close loss last week to Traverse City West, Holt is projecting early to earn its first playoff berth since 2013. But DeWitt represents a fourth straight tough opponent to start the season, and also a major measuring stick locally as the reigning Capital Area Activities Conference Blue champion and winningest team in the Lansing area since the start of the century.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Evart (3-0) at Beal City (3-0), Fowler (3-0) at Laingsburg (3-0), Portage Northern (3-0) at East Lansing (2-1), Williamston (2-1) at St. Johns (2-1).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City St. Francis (2-1) at Kingsley (3-0)
This rivalry has been one-sided this decade, with St. Francis winning seven of eight meetings including last year’s during the regular season (43-8) and playoffs (41-20). But there are a few reasons to believe this rematch will be much more competitive. First, last year’s games saw Kingsley break a four-year shutout streak against the Gladiators on the way to finishing 10-2 – after going only 1-8 in 2017. The Stags have won all of their games this fall by at least 27 points. And St. Francis did suffer only its second regular-season loss of the last five seasons, in Week 2 to Maple City Glen Lake – although the defeat is looking better every week as the Lakers remain unbeaten.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Traverse City Central (2-1) at Traverse City West (2-1), Frankfort (2-1) at Maple City Glen Lake (3-0), St. Ignace (2-1) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (3-0), McBain (1-2) at Lake City (1-2).
Southeast & Border
Sand Creek (3-0) at Clinton (3-0)
Clinton has emerged as the early favorite in the Tri-County Conference with recent power Ottawa Lake Whiteford off to a 1-2 start and the Redskins putting up at least 41 points in all three of their games so far. But Sand Creek has gone over 50 twice, and more impressively pulled out a 31-28 Week 2 win over otherwise unscored-upon Adrian Lenawee Christian. The last three games between these two were decided by seven points or fewer. Clinton won the last two including last fall 28-27.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Blissfield (2-1) at Brooklyn Columbia Central (3-0), Onsted (2-1) at Hillsdale (3-0), Michigan Center (1-2) at Addison (2-1), Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes (1-2) at Pittsford (2-1).
Southwest Corridor
Edwardsburg (3-0) at Vicksburg (3-0)
The reigning Division 4 champion Eddies have run their winning streak to 17 and given up all of eight points this season, those to Dowagiac in Week 1. This is all familiar of course – Edwardsburg has lost only two regular-season games over the last seven years, although the first defeat came to Vicksburg in 2014. Despite finishing just 3-6 a year ago, the Bulldogs did give the Eddies their second-closest game of the entire 2018 season including playoffs with a 38-22 defeat in Week 8 (only Grand Rapids Catholic Central in a two-point Semifinal loss came closer).
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Lawton (3-0) at Delton Kellogg (3-0), Paw Paw (3-0) at Dowagiac (2-1), Stevensville Lakeshore (2-1) at St. Joseph (3-0), Kalamazoo Central (1-2) at Kalamazoo Loy Norrix (0-3).
Upper Peninsula
West Iron County (3-0) at Calumet (3-0)
Coming off what surely will be one of its toughest league games of this season against Ishpeming Westwood, Calumet next gets what should be a strong nonleague challenge in West Iron – even considering the Copper Kings won the same matchup under similar circumstances 43-6 a year ago. The Wykons did go on to finish 8-3, its only other losses both to Ishpeming. A win tonight would give them not only a great measuring stick as they look to match up with another undefeated Hematites team in league play, but also would put West Iron at 4-0 for the first time since 2014.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Marquette (1-2) at Escanaba (3-0), Ishpeming Westwood (1-2) at Ishpeming (3-0), Kingsford (1-2) at Gladstone (2-1), Petoskey (0-3) at Sault Ste. Marie (2-1).
West Michigan
Rockford (3-0) at Muskegon Mona Shores (3-0)
Even with some of their opponents’ struggles, it’s always going to be impressive how Rockford has opened with wins over Grand Rapids Christian, Lowell and Holland West Ottawa. Mona Shores actually was even better this time against early opponents East Kentwood, Bay City Central and Reeths-Puffer than a year ago, when the Sailors also started 3-0 and then went on to beat Rockford 33-14 in Week 4 and eventually finish 12-2 and Division 2 runner-up. The Rams have some added motivation, as reportedly longtime and legendary coach Ralph Munger is slated to return to the sideline for the first time this fall after undergoing heart surgery just before practice began.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Holland Christian (2-1) at Byron Center (3-0), Sparta (3-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (2-1), Zeeland West (3-1) at Lowell (2-1), Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (2-1) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (1-2).
8-Player
Climax-Scotts (3-0) at Camden-Frontier (3-0)
While the Panthers’ early run during their inaugural season of 8-player has been impressive, Camden-Frontier might present a next-level challenge. The Redskins have made the playoffs all three seasons they’ve played 8-player, and this fall they’ve sandwiched a nice eight-point win over Burr Oak between 50+ scoring weeks. The last time these teams played, Climax-Scotts won 60-0 in a 2015 11-player game – but it’s a good assumption the move to 8-player for both will prove to be a bit of an equalizer as they meet again.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Suttons Bay (3-0) at Onekama (3-0), Rudyard (2-1) at Brimley (3-0), Colon (3-0) at Burr Oak (2-1). SATURDAY Pickford (2-1) at Eben Junction Superior Central (2-1).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Norway quarterback Nathan Paulitch (7) gains several yards during the second quarter of last week's game against Ishpeming before Hematites Ben Pruett (14), Dawson Delongchamp (17) and Tanner Romback (80) catch up to him. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.