Drive for Detroit: Week 6 Preview

September 29, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Don't think of tonight as the end of another warm September. Instead, consider it the start to a momentous final month of another Michigan high school football regular season. 

Nine games this weekend feature teams with perfect records facing off. Add in that 72 teams statewide can clinch the first automatic playoff berths awarded this fall, and most fans won’t have to drive far to find a game with significant implications.

Check out our preview below of the best games in every corner of the state, powered by MI Student Aid. For the weekend's full schedule, check out the MHSAA Score Center. All games below are Friday unless noted.

Bay & Thumb

Holly (4-1) at Fenton (3-2)

Fenton loaded the front of its schedule with Caledonia and Temperance Bedford and came away with an 0-2 start, but bounced back nicely in pursuit of a sixth straight Flint Metro League title. The Tigers are tied for first with Holly, which also bounced back from an opening-night loss to competitive Berkley and is seeking its first win over Fenton since 2011. Regardless of tonight’s result, Fenton may still hold one more upper hand in the league race – it already has beaten Ortonville Brandon (4-1), Holly’s opponent in Week 9.

Others that caught my eye: Midland (3-2) at Davison (5-0), Flint Carman-Ainsworth (3-2) at Bay City Central (3-2), Corunna (5-0) at Montrose (3-2), Marine City (1-4) at St. Clair (3-2).

Greater Detroit

Detroit Martin Luther King (5-0) at Detroit Cass Tech (5-0), Saturday

These Detroit Public School League rivals have lined up for some colossal tilts over the years – see last season’s 31-28 and 27-25 King wins in their first meeting and then PSL championship game. But this might be the most hyped matchup of the series to date. Cass Tech, last season’s MHSAA Division 1 runner-up, has outscored its opponents by a combined 268-45 while giving up scores to only Oak Park and Detroit East English. Then there’s King, which has outscored its opponents 243-6, giving up its only points to Detroit Central in Week 2. This matchup with likely decide the PSL East Division 1 champion; regardless, they’ll likely meet again in the PSL tournament final in Week 9. And regardless of that as well, both could end their seasons playing again at Ford Field in MHSAA Finals for the second year in a row.

Others that caught my eye: Trenton (5-0) at Allen Park (5-0), Redford Union (4-1) at Dearborn Fordson (5-0), Birmingham Groves (5-0) at Farmington Hills Harrison (3-2), Orchard Lake St. Mary's (3-2) at Birmingham Brother Rice (3-2) on Saturday.

Mid-Michigan

Pewamo-Westphalia (5-0) at Laingsburg (5-0)

Few think defense first when it comes to the Pirates, last season’s Division 7 runner-up. But they haven’t given up a point this season since Week 1 to Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central and haven’t given up more than seven in Central Michigan Athletic Conference play since 2014. Laingsburg ended up winning a District title last year after falling to P-W 50-7 in Week 7 and could be best-suited among league opponents to know how to get on the board this week. But the Wolfpack still must slow down P-W star running back Jared Smith as he attempts to go over 1,000 yards rushing for the season tonight despite carrying the ball only 73 times heading into this game.

Others that caught my eye: Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (4-1) at Ithaca (5-0), Lake Odessa Lakewood (5-0) at Olivet (4-1), Durand (4-1) at New Lothrop (5-0), Williamston (3-2) at Fowlerville (3-2).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Maple City Glen Lake (4-1) at Frankfort (5-0)

Teams without a league loss face off this weekend in all three divisions of the Northern Michigan Football League, but this Leaders matchup is the most intriguing, arguably, based on past history and the past few weeks. Glen Lake and Frankfort have played each other yearly going back at least to the late 1950s, with their meetings often the best of the season in the old Northwest Conference. Glen Lake set up the intrigue this time by handing Charlevoix its first loss this season last week, and big, 49-7. Frankfort won the Leaders last fall, but lost 10-6 to Glen Lake, which played in the Legends division in 2015.

Others that caught my eye: St. Ignace (4-1) at Gaylord St. Mary (5-0), Kalkaska (5-0) at Boyne City (3-2), East Jordan (4-1) at Charlevoix (4-1), Traverse City St. Francis (5-0) at Grayling (3-2).

Southeast & Border

Grosse Ile (5-0) at Milan (5-0)

While Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central has made the most noise out of the Huron League over the last few seasons, these two are regulars in the mix as well. Both have a pair of 10-win seasons this decade and could be on their ways to a third – with this meeting likely deciding the league title as both have two-win leads on the rest of the conference. Milan, last year’s league runner-up, beat Grosse Ile 44-7 in 2015 and still must see St. Mary next week and then Carleton Airport to finish the Huron slate. The Red Devils, meanwhile, have one more win already than all of last season, shut out St. Mary last week, and after tonight finish the league schedule with Airport and Riverview (which are a combined 2-8).

Others that caught my eye: Chelsea (5-0) at Adrian (3-2), Clinton (4-1) at Sand Creek (5-0), Hudson (5-0) at Hillsdale (3-2), Concord (5-0) at Springport (4-1).

Southwest Corridor

Schoolcraft (5-0) at Lawton (5-0)

Lawton also got the highlighted spot from this region last week, against Gobles as both hoped for the opportunity to face Schoolcraft to decide the Southwestern Athletic Conference Central title. Lawton won 31-21 and gets first shot at the Eagles after falling to them 47-0 last season despite also entering that game 5-0. Schoolcraft quietly has built a 16-game regular-season winning streak and hasn’t allowed a SAC Central opponent to get within 21 points since joining the league a year ago.

Others that caught my eye: South Haven (3-2) at Edwardsburg (5-0), Detroit U-D Jesuit (3-1) at St. Joseph (4-1), Portage Northern (3-2) at Stevensville Lakeshore (4-1), Paw Paw (3-2) at Three Rivers (4-1).

Upper Peninsula

Menominee (5-0) at Escanaba (5-0)

The best in the Great Northern U.P. Conference face off to likely decide the championship, although the winner will need another win next week to clinch at least a share of the title. It’s been a while since Escanaba was in this conversation; a win tonight would give the Eskymos their most in a season since 2011. Breaking a 17-game losing streak to Menominee and qualifying for the playoffs too would make a win tonight that much sweeter – the Maroons, in fact, haven’t lost a league game since 2012 and have won 36 straight regular-season games total.  

Others that caught my eye: Negaunee (5-0) at Norway (5-0), Iron River West Iron County (3-2) at Calumet (4-1), Hurley, Wis. (5-1) at Hancock (3-2), Bark River-Harris (2-3) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (5-0) on Saturday.

West Michigan

Grandville (5-0) at Rockford (3-2)

It’s hard to give this game top billing over Reed City/Chippewa Hills (see below), but it’s explainable given the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red still has six of seven teams in contention for automatic playoff berths and these two arguably are the best. Grandville is enjoying its most successful run since 2006 – when it still lost to Rockford 28-0 to finish second in the league – and has outscored five opponents by a total of 231-31 after downing contenders Hudsonville 36-6 and East Kentwood 46-3 the last two weeks, respectively. Rockford has fought back gallantly from an 0-2 start that included a forfeit because of a team sickness Week 1. Extending a 21-season playoff streak – and more – looks a lot more possible now.

Others that caught my eye: Reed City (5-0) at Remus Chippewa Hills (5-0), Grand Rapids Christian (5-0) at East Grand Rapids (3-2), Cedar Springs (3-2) at Lowell (5-0), Whitehall (4-1) at Muskegon Oakridge (4-1).

8-Player

New Haven Merritt (5-0) at Owendale-Gagetown (5-0)

These are the top teams in the Mid-Michigan 8-Man Football League, Merritt in the Inland division and Owendale-Gagetown in the Coastal. They are also two of the top teams statewide; Merritt has the fourth highest playoff-point average in 8-player, and Owendale-Gagetown’s is tied for eighth highest. All of this could change this weekend, however; the Bulldogs are 8-0 against Merritt since the Mustangs started their program five years ago. Owendale-Gagetown won last year’s meetings 72-42 and 54-30 – but Merritt, following two straight playoff appearances, is off to its best start ever.

Others that caught my eye: Camden-Frontier (4-0) at Lawrence (5-0), Battle Creek St. Philip (4-1) at Webberville (4-1).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Detroit Martin Luther King (yellow jerseys) and Detroit Cass Tech will renew their rivalry Saturday after last facing off in last season’s PSL Final at Ford Field. (Photo courtesy of the Detroit Public School League.)

Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.