Drive for Detroit: Week 7 Preview
October 6, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Tonight could end with at least a few Michigan communities celebrating the best night in their local high school's football history.
Breckenridge is seeking its first league title since its players' grandparents were newborns. Engadine, Corunna and many more could have momentous evenings as well as league titles stand to be decided all over the state.
All nine highlighted games of this week's Drive for Detroit preview powered by MI Student Aid could decide league races, whether tonight or in the near future. Check out the MHSAA Score Center for a schedule of this weekend's games and to see scores as they're reported. All games listed below are today unless noted.
Bay & Thumb
Corunna (6-0) at Lake Fenton (6-0)
This Genesee Area Conference Red finale matches the league’s co-leaders. Corunna’s transformation the last two seasons truly deserves note; the Cavaliers didn’t have a winning season from 2006-12 and then fell back to 2-7 in 2014 after a 6-4 finish the year before. But they’re in position to repeat as Red champs after sharing the title last season with Goodrich. Lake Fenton has been much more of a regular contender but still will be playing for its first league title since sharing the Red with Montrose in 2007.
Others that caught my eye: Alma (5-1) at Carrollton (4-2), Saginaw Swan Valley (4-2) at Freeland (6-0), Davison (6-0) at Lapeer (5-1), Saginaw Heritage (3-3) at Flint Carman-Ainsworth (4-2).
Greater Detroit
Rochester Adams (5-1) at Birmingham Groves (6-0)
It’s a little complicated, but the Oakland Activities Association White winner also can be partially determined tonight. Thanks to a one-point loss to Oak Park in Week 4, Adams trails Groves just slightly in the standings with the opportunity to secure a share of the league title with a win tonight in what will be its final league game of the fall. Groves also can clinch a share tonight with a win but still has one more league game to play next week and must win that as well to clinch the title outright – unless Oak Park, already with a league defeat to Groves, also loses one of its final two OAA White games. An Adams win tonight could lead to a three-way title share.
Others that caught my eye: Romeo (4-2) at Warren Mott (6-0), Detroit Western International (4-2) at Detroit Mumford (5-1), Detroit Catholic Central (6-0) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (4-2), Detroit East English (4-2) at Detroit Martin Luther King (5-1) on Saturday.
Mid-Michigan
Merrill (5-1) at Breckenridge (6-0)
Already celebrating its first playoff berth since 1993 – and after going 0-9 (!) last season – Breckenridge can secure a share of its first league title tonight in 70 years, according to a Midland Daily News report. But Merrill – which like Breckenridge joined the Mid-State Activities Conference this season after leaving the Tri-Valley Conference West – can set up a possibility to share the championship as it enters with only an MSAC loss to Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart. Merrill downed Breckenridge 48-6 a year ago after the Huskies took their 2014 meeting.
Others that caught my eye: Fowler (4-2) at Dansville (4-2), Lansing Sexton (4-2) at East Lansing (4-2), Stockbridge (3-3) at Olivet (4-2), DeWitt (5-1) at St. Johns (3-3).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Clare (5-1) at Roscommon (6-0)
These two are tied for first in the Jack Pine Conference with three games to play – meaning that a loss tonight won’t entirely derail either’s hopes. But the winner should be set up well to at least share the title, although Roscommon still must play Harrison (4-2) and Claire finishes with playoff hopefuls Beaverton (4-2) and Houghton Lake (3-3). The Pioneers are used to this scenario – before falling twice last season, they had won 34 straight Jack Pine games and have dominated the league most of the last two decades. Roscommon, meanwhile, has its most wins already since 2006, when it finished 10-2 and won the conference.
Others that caught my eye: Gaylord St. Mary (5-1) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (3-3), Muskegon Catholic Central (6-0) at Manistee (4-2), Charlevoix (5-1) at Onekama (5-1), Saginaw Nouvel (4-2) at Tawas (4-1).
Southeast & Border
Ida (6-0) at Hudson (5-1)
Ida has won all but one of its Lenawee County Athletic Association games over the last two seasons by at least 24 points. The team to come closer, Hillsdale (falling 20-17), is next week’s opponent – but Ida won’t look past rejuvenated Hudson. The Tigers have bounced back from finishing 4-5 last year and still have LCAA title hopes despite falling to Hillsdale 14-6 last week. Hillsdale already has a league loss as well, so an Ida win tonight puts the Bluestreaks in strong position to at least share the championship after winning it outright in 2015.
Others that caught my eye: Petersburg-Summerfield (4-2) at Clinton (4-2), Quincy (5-1) at Concord (5-1), Milan (6-0) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (3-3), Morenci (4-2) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (6-0).
Southwest Corridor
Battle Creek Harper Creek (6-0) at Coldwater (4-2)
Harper Creek is having an all-around great fall; the volleyball team is ranked No. 6 in Class B, the boys cross country team was tied for No. 9 in Lower Peninsula Division 2 entering this week, and the football team has doubled its wins from a season ago with an opportunity tonight to clinch a share of the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference championship against last year’s champion. Coldwater has won two straight over the Beavers and won’t go quietly, but Harper Creek has yet to allow a team to get closer than 10 points.
Others that caught my eye: St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic (5-1) at Bridgman (4-2), Schoolcraft (6-0) at Gobles (5-1), Portage Central (5-1) at Portage Northern (4-2), Delton Kellogg (4-2) at Watervliet (4-2).
Upper Peninsula
Ishpeming (3-2) at Negaunee (6-0)
A couple of pretty strong Negaunee teams have had their Mid-Peninsula Athletic Conference hopes dashed by MHSAA title-contending Ishpeming teams over the last few years. The Hematites have beaten the Miners in three straight, and the 2013 and 2015 victories decided league titles. But Negaunee enters as the favorite this time with wins over five teams still up for playoff berths, and Ishpeming has a little additional pressure; it must win two of its last three games against Negaunee, St. Ignace and Gwinn to guarantee adding to a 14-season playoff streak.
Others that caught my eye: Kingsford (4-2) at Iron Mountain (5-1), Escanaba (5-1) at Gladstone (3-3), Lake Linden-Hubbell (6-0) at Houghton (3-3), Hancock (4-2) at Gwinn (4-2).
West Michigan
Zeeland East (5-1) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (6-0)
Four teams in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green are at least 5-1 and a fifth is 4-2, making this arguably the strongest league in the state top to bottom this fall. Two of this week’s matchups are highlighted in this space this week, and Unity Christian enters tied with Byron Center for first place but with Hamilton and Zeeland East holding only one league loss. East is a newcomer after playing previously in the O-K Black, but could have the greatest influence on the final finish with Unity on the schedule this week, Byron Center next week and rival Zeeland West in Week 9
Others that caught my eye: Whitehall (4-2) at Ravenna (4-2), Big Rapids (3-3) at Reed City (6-0), Grand Rapids South Christian (3-3) at Wyoming (4-2), Hamilton (5-1) at Zeeland West (4-2).
8-Player
Cedarville (6-0) at Engadine (6-0)
Engadine is in the midst of a string of successful seasons it hasn’t enjoyed since the mid-1980s, but winning tonight could make this fall the best of the bunch. The Eagles can clinch a share of the Bridge-Alliance League title after returning this fall after a year playing in the Western Eight Conference. Cedarville, of course, is a regular favorite and has only four league losses in five seasons of 8-player football. The Trojans’ closest games this fall have been a pair of 20-point wins, and Engadine hasn’t let anyone get closer than 10.
Others that caught my eye: Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (6-0) at Lawrence (6-0), Webberville (5-1) at Portland St. Patrick (6-0), Rapid River (5-1) at Stephenson (5-1).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Saginaw Swan Valley (left) and Zeeland East faced off earlier this season; both will attempt to beat league leaders this weekend. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.