Drive for Detroit: Week 7 Preview

October 6, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Tonight could end with at least a few Michigan communities celebrating the best night in their local high school's football history.

Breckenridge is seeking its first league title since its players' grandparents were newborns. Engadine, Corunna and many more could have momentous evenings as well as league titles stand to be decided all over the state. 

All nine highlighted games of this week's Drive for Detroit preview powered by MI Student Aid could decide league races, whether tonight or in the near future. Check out the MHSAA Score Center for a schedule of this weekend's games and to see scores as they're reported. All games listed below are today unless noted. 

Bay & Thumb

Corunna (6-0) at Lake Fenton (6-0)

This Genesee Area Conference Red finale matches the league’s co-leaders. Corunna’s transformation the last two seasons truly deserves note; the Cavaliers didn’t have a winning season from 2006-12 and then fell back to 2-7 in 2014 after a 6-4 finish the year before. But they’re in position to repeat as Red champs after sharing the title last season with Goodrich. Lake Fenton has been much more of a regular contender but still will be playing for its first league title since sharing the Red with Montrose in 2007.

Others that caught my eye: Alma (5-1) at Carrollton (4-2), Saginaw Swan Valley (4-2) at Freeland (6-0), Davison (6-0) at Lapeer (5-1), Saginaw Heritage (3-3) at Flint Carman-Ainsworth (4-2).

Greater Detroit

Rochester Adams (5-1) at Birmingham Groves (6-0)

It’s a little complicated, but the Oakland Activities Association White winner also can be partially determined tonight. Thanks to a one-point loss to Oak Park in Week 4, Adams trails Groves just slightly in the standings with the opportunity to secure a share of the league title with a win tonight in what will be its final league game of the fall. Groves also can clinch a share tonight with a win but still has one more league game to play next week and must win that as well to clinch the title outright – unless Oak Park, already with a league defeat to Groves, also loses one of its final two OAA White games. An Adams win tonight could lead to a three-way title share.

Others that caught my eye: Romeo (4-2) at Warren Mott (6-0), Detroit Western International (4-2) at Detroit Mumford (5-1), Detroit Catholic Central (6-0) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (4-2), Detroit East English (4-2) at Detroit Martin Luther King (5-1) on Saturday.

Mid-Michigan

Merrill (5-1) at Breckenridge (6-0)

Already celebrating its first playoff berth since 1993 – and after going 0-9 (!) last season – Breckenridge can secure a share of its first league title tonight in 70 years, according to a Midland Daily News report. But Merrill – which like Breckenridge joined the Mid-State Activities Conference this season after leaving the Tri-Valley Conference West – can set up a possibility to share the championship as it enters with only an MSAC loss to Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart. Merrill downed Breckenridge 48-6 a year ago after the Huskies took their 2014 meeting.

Others that caught my eye: Fowler (4-2) at Dansville (4-2), Lansing Sexton (4-2) at East Lansing (4-2), Stockbridge (3-3) at Olivet (4-2), DeWitt (5-1) at St. Johns (3-3).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Clare (5-1) at Roscommon (6-0)

These two are tied for first in the Jack Pine Conference with three games to play – meaning that a loss tonight won’t entirely derail either’s hopes. But the winner should be set up well to at least share the title, although Roscommon still must play Harrison (4-2) and Claire finishes with playoff hopefuls Beaverton (4-2) and Houghton Lake (3-3). The Pioneers are used to this scenario – before falling twice last season, they had won 34 straight Jack Pine games and have dominated the league most of the last two decades. Roscommon, meanwhile, has its most wins already since 2006, when it finished 10-2 and won the conference.

Others that caught my eye: Gaylord St. Mary (5-1) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (3-3), Muskegon Catholic Central (6-0) at Manistee (4-2), Charlevoix (5-1) at Onekama (5-1), Saginaw Nouvel (4-2) at Tawas (4-1).

Southeast & Border

Ida (6-0) at Hudson (5-1)

Ida has won all but one of its Lenawee County Athletic Association games over the last two seasons by at least 24 points. The team to come closer, Hillsdale (falling 20-17), is next week’s opponent – but Ida won’t look past rejuvenated Hudson. The Tigers have bounced back from finishing 4-5 last year and still have LCAA title hopes despite falling to Hillsdale 14-6 last week. Hillsdale already has a league loss as well, so an Ida win tonight puts the Bluestreaks in strong position to at least share the championship after winning it outright in 2015.

Others that caught my eye: Petersburg-Summerfield (4-2) at Clinton (4-2), Quincy (5-1) at Concord (5-1), Milan (6-0) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (3-3), Morenci (4-2) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (6-0).

Southwest Corridor

Battle Creek Harper Creek (6-0) at Coldwater (4-2)

Harper Creek is having an all-around great fall; the volleyball team is ranked No. 6 in Class B, the boys cross country team was tied for No. 9 in Lower Peninsula Division 2 entering this week, and the football team has doubled its wins from a season ago with an opportunity tonight to clinch a share of the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference championship against last year’s champion. Coldwater has won two straight over the Beavers and won’t go quietly, but Harper Creek has yet to allow a team to get closer than 10 points.

Others that caught my eye: St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic (5-1) at Bridgman (4-2), Schoolcraft (6-0) at Gobles (5-1), Portage Central (5-1) at Portage Northern (4-2), Delton Kellogg (4-2) at Watervliet (4-2).

Upper Peninsula

Ishpeming (3-2) at Negaunee (6-0)

A couple of pretty strong Negaunee teams have had their Mid-Peninsula Athletic Conference hopes dashed by MHSAA title-contending Ishpeming teams over the last few years. The Hematites have beaten the Miners in three straight, and the 2013 and 2015 victories decided league titles. But Negaunee enters as the favorite this time with wins over five teams still up for playoff berths, and Ishpeming has a little additional pressure; it must win two of its last three games against Negaunee, St. Ignace and Gwinn to guarantee adding to a 14-season playoff streak.

Others that caught my eye: Kingsford (4-2) at Iron Mountain (5-1), Escanaba (5-1) at Gladstone (3-3), Lake Linden-Hubbell (6-0) at Houghton (3-3), Hancock (4-2) at Gwinn (4-2).

West Michigan

Zeeland East (5-1) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (6-0)

Four teams in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green are at least 5-1 and a fifth is 4-2, making this arguably the strongest league in the state top to bottom this fall. Two of this week’s matchups are highlighted in this space this week, and Unity Christian enters tied with Byron Center for first place but with Hamilton and Zeeland East holding only one league loss. East is a newcomer after playing previously in the O-K Black, but could have the greatest influence on the final finish with Unity on the schedule this week, Byron Center next week and rival Zeeland West in Week 9

Others that caught my eye: Whitehall (4-2) at Ravenna (4-2), Big Rapids (3-3) at Reed City (6-0), Grand Rapids South Christian (3-3) at Wyoming (4-2), Hamilton (5-1) at Zeeland West (4-2).

8-Player

Cedarville (6-0) at Engadine (6-0)

Engadine is in the midst of a string of successful seasons it hasn’t enjoyed since the mid-1980s, but winning tonight could make this fall the best of the bunch. The Eagles can clinch a share of the Bridge-Alliance League title after returning this fall after a year playing in the Western Eight Conference. Cedarville, of course, is a regular favorite and has only four league losses in five seasons of 8-player football. The Trojans’ closest games this fall have been a pair of 20-point wins, and Engadine hasn’t let anyone get closer than 10.

Others that caught my eye: Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (6-0) at Lawrence (6-0), Webberville (5-1) at Portland St. Patrick (6-0), Rapid River (5-1) at Stephenson (5-1).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Saginaw Swan Valley (left) and Zeeland East faced off earlier this season; both will attempt to beat league leaders this weekend. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)

Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.