A Game for Every Fan: Week 8
October 16, 2014
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider this little-known, or perhaps lesser-stated fact about the MHSAA football playoffs:
Two weeks remain in the regular season. But 50 percent of the 616 teams eligible for the postseason still control their futures with opportunities to earn automatic berths.
And that’s fewer teams than at this point the last few seasons – meaning more opportunities remain for a larger pool of teams to receive at-large bids.
Read on for more on some of those teams and some the games that matter most this week as the last available league titles are being locked down and playoff selection sits just 10 days away.
Bay and Thumb
Lapeer (7-0) at Flint Carman-Ainsworth (6-1)
It’s accurate to say Lapeer High has never been in this situation – this is the first season for the school, made up of the former Lapeer West and East. But a fair argument can be made that the Lightning has opened better than either school did over the last decade. It has clinched a share of the Saginaw Valley Association Red title and given up 20 points – total – this fall. Enter Carman-Ainsworth, last season’s champion of the former SVA South and a one-point loss to Mount Pleasant from also being perfect this fall.
Others that caught my eye: Flint Beecher (7-0) at Montrose (6-1), Birch Run (6-1) at Millington (7-0), Harbor Beach (7-0) at Marlette (5-2), Walled Lake Central (5-2) at Grand Blanc (5-2).
Southwest and Border
Watervliet (6-1) at Decatur (7-0)
Decatur has guaranteed a fourth straight winning season and is 30-11 since the beginning of 2011 – with three of those losses coming in the playoffs and seven coming in the competitive Southwestern Athletic Conference South. The Raiders never finished higher than third in the five-team league during the last three seasons. But the winner tonight will clinch a share of the title, although to do so Decatur must break a five-game losing streak to Watervliet – league champions the last three seasons.
Others that caught my eye: Berrien Springs (5-2) at Edwardsburg (7-0), Olivet (6-1) at Constantine (6-1), St. Joseph (4-3) at Battle Creek Lakeview (5-1), Homer (6-1) at Union City (7-0).
Greater Detroit
Ypsilanti Community (5-2) at Ypsilanti Lincoln (5-2)
The last four seasons have been like no other in Lincoln football history. The Railsplitters made the playoffs for the first time in 2011 and this season have guaranteed a fourth straight winning record – and tonight also can guarantee a third playoff berth and second straight outright Southeastern Conference White championship. Community had a brief up-and-down span, sandwiching an impressive win over Chelsea between two losses to finish September. But tonight’s win would mean for the Grizzlies a share of the league title and first playoff berth in the school’s two-year history.
Others that caught my eye: Farmington (6-1) at Birmingham Groves (6-1), Detroit Cass Tech (7-0) vs. Detroit East English (5-2) at Detroit Northwestern, Marine City (7-0) at Warren Woods-Tower (6-1), Harper Woods Chandler Park (5-2) at Warren Michigan Collegiate (7-0) on Saturday.
Lower Up North
Whittemore-Prescott (7-0) at Hillman (7-0)
This should end up the best game of the season in the northeastern end of the Lower Peninsula. Whittemore-Prescott won the North Star League Huron Shores championship and has clinched its 16th playoff berth in the last 17 seasons. Hillman won the league’s North Star division and has guaranteed its eighth playoff appearance in nine seasons with its best start since 1990. Last season marked the teams' first meeting since 1976 – and turned into a 66-26 win for the Cardinals. This time should be much closer.
Others that caught my eye: Elk Rapids (4-3) at Boyne City (7-0), Mancelona (4-3) at Central Lake (4-3), Manton (5-2) at Lincoln Alcona (4-3), Cadillac (7-0) at Manistee (4-3).
West Michigan
Rockford (6-1) at East Kentwood (6-1)
The Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title is down to three teams and two weeks of the season, with Rockford holding a one-win lead over East Kentwood and Holland West Ottawa – and West Ottawa next week’s opponent. The Rams haven’t lost a league game since Week 4 of 2010, and that has included two seasons of facing Muskegon in Red games. But it’s tough to argue against this being East Kentwood’s best season since 2003 – which also was the last time it won this matchup.
Others that caught my eye: Lowell (7-0) at Caledonia (5-2), Greenville (4-3) at Cedar Springs (6-1), Hudsonville (4-3) at Holland West Ottawa (5-2), Whitehall (6-1) at Ravenna (6-1).
Mid-Michigan
Lansing Everett (5-2) at Lansing Sexton (7-0)
This is the most meaningful game between these rivals since probably 1986, when Everett and Sexton met in the first league game of the season and the Vikings won by a point – and then eventually won the league title by a win over the Big Reds. Everett has the top-scoring offense in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue this season; Sexton’s defense has given up the fewest points. The Big Reds can win a share of the Blue title for the second straight season – but the Vikings are one of the few teams in the Lansing area that might be able to match Sexton's speedy pace.
Others that caught my eye: Pewamo-Westphalia (6-1) at Fowler (7-0), Harrison (7-0) at Clare (5-2), Walled Lake Western (6-1) at Hartland (6-1), Reed City (6-1) at Remus Chippewa Hills (6-1).
Upper Peninsula
Negaunee (4-3) at Marquette (7-1)
This game became key to Negaunee’s season after last week, when Marquette guaranteed a playoff berth with a win over Constantine and Negaunee fell to rival Ishpeming and into a must-win situation for the rest of the regular season. The Miners have made the playoffs five of the last six seasons – and the closest loss the season they missed qualifying by a win, 2011, was a six-point defeat to the Redmen.
Others that caught my eye: Crystal Falls Forest Park (5-1) at Bessemer (4-2) on Saturday, Felch North Dickinson (3-4) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (6-1) on Saturday, Marinette, Wis. (3-5) at Menominee (7-0) on Saturday, Newberry (4-3) at Rudyard (3-4).
8-Player
Portland St. Patrick (7-0) at Battle Creek St. Philip (7-0), Saturday
For the second straight week, it’s nearly impossible to pick the best from a group of 8-player games matching the state’s elite. But consider this face-off of two of the six undefeated teams left in 8-player. The Tigers fell to St. Patrick three times in their first 8-player season in 2012, but beat the Shamrocks 68-14 last fall and are 17-1 over their last 18 games. That point total should be tougher to come by this time – St. Patrick is giving up a mere 12.7 points per game, particularly strong in the high-scoring 8-player format.
Others that caught my eye: Cedarville (6-1) at Bellaire (7-0), Peck (7-0) at Deckerville (6-1).
PHOTO: Flint Carman-Ainsworth, here against Midland earlier this season, can lock up a second straight league title tonight against Lapeer. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com).
Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.