A Game for Every Fan: Week 8

October 11, 2012

One team more than half of the 2012 MHSAA football playoff field has been decided, with 129 teams qualified for the 256-team field with two regular-season games to play.

And each of these final weeks includes opportunities for plenty to do something they've never done before.

Over the last two weeks, Swartz Creek, Grand Rapids Northview and Detroit East English have earned their first playoff berths ever (East English in its first year as a school). Detroit Consortium, Mayville, Walled Lake Northern and Saginaw Valley Lutheran all can earn their first berths with wins this weekend.

See below for some of the best games being played in every corner of the state. And visit the MHSAA Score Center all weekend for updated scores and standings.

(All games below are tonight unless noted. Go to Score Center for additional dates and kickoff times.)

Greater Detroit

Clarkston (7-0) at Lake Orion (7-0)

These Oakland Activities Association Red rivals have two of the top three playoff point averages among potential Division 1 teams this fall, and are ranked Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, by The Associated Press' media panel. This is as true a rivalry as they come -- the schools are nearly the same size at more than 2,500 students each, they are located only 11 miles apart, and they've split their last 10 meetings including three in the playoffs.

Others that caught my eye: Detroit Cody (5-2) vs. Detroit East English (6-1) at Detroit Northwestern, Dearborn Heights Robichaud (7-0) at Dearborn Fordson (6-1), Oak Park (7-0) at Oxford (4-3), Detroit Martin Luther King (4-3) vs. Detroit Cass Tech (6-1) at Detroit Northwestern.

Lower Up North

Traverse City St. Francis (4-3) at Maple City Glen Lake (7-0)

At stake this week and potentially next is St. Francis' 22-season playoff berth streak, the state's longest. Its losses are to teams with a combined 19-2 record, but the Gladiators took a significant step last week by beating Saginaw Nouvel. Glen Lake is much like the teams that have beaten St. Francis. The Lakers have given up only 44 points total and own a win over Kingsley, which beat the Gladiators on opening night.

Others that caught my eye: Benzie Central (3-4) at Cheboygan (5-2), Boyne City (7-0) at Elk Rapids (4-3), Lake City (6-1) at Manton (4-3), Kalkaska (5-2) at Frankfort (3-4).

Bay and Thumb

Midland (7-0) at Bay City Western (7-0)

Like some games these teams have won this season, their league race is coming right down to the final minutes. The winner claims a share of the Saginaw Valley Association North championship, with both then facing city rivalry games to finish the regular season. Western has survived three straight eight-point wins, and Midland edged two of those same opponents by seven points apiece. The Chemics have beaten the Warriors in six of their last eight meetings.

Others that caught my eye: Swartz Creek (7-0) at Fenton (6-1), Walled Lake Western (5-2) at Grand Blanc (4-3), Saginaw Valley Lutheran (5-2) at Merrill (4-3), Marine City (6-1) at St. Clair (7-0).

West Michigan

Grand Rapids Catholic Central (7-0) at Hastings (6-1)

The winner of this matchup will claim a share of the O-K Gold championship. Grand Rapids Catholic Central is the reigning champion, but Hastings can claim a league title for the first time since 2001. The Cougars have won three of the four between these two since joining the Gold, but Hastings if off to its best start since that last league championship season.

Others that caught my eye: Lowell (6-1) at Caledonia (6-1), Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (4-3) at Grand Rapids Christian (6-1), Fruitport (7-0) at Muskegon Catholic Central (5-2), Grandville (4-3) at Rockford (5-2).

Mid-Michigan

Grand Ledge (5-2) at East Lansing (5-2)

This has been one of the best rivalries in mid-Michigan for more two decades. And although this game likely won't decide a league champion this time -- Lansing Everett leads both by a win in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue standings -- it's remains significant as both the Comets and Trojans' playoff hopes could hinge on which wins tonight. East Lansing might be in better shape, with one-win Okemos coming up in Week 9. But the Comets finish with Holt, 4-3 and another team playing for a postseason berth.

Others that caught my eye: DeWitt (6-1) at Portland (6-1), Walled Lake Northern (5-2) at Hartland (7-0), Williamston (4-3) at Haslett (4-3), Mason (5-2) at Lansing Waverly (4-3).

Southwest and Border

Stevensville Lakeshore (7-0) at Mattawan (7-0)

No region of the state has more big games this week, with titles being decided all over the Kalamazoo area and southwestern corner. But these are the big schools from the biggest league, and the game longest-awaited as both have navigated a tough Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West. Mattawan does have to face third-place Portage Northern next week, but the winner tonight will be riding high no matter what opponent is up next. Mattawan did win last season, breaking an eight-game losing streak against the Lancers.

Others that caught my eye: Watervliet (7-0) at Decatur (6-1), Edwardsburg (6-1) at Dowagiac (7-0), Paw Paw (7-0) at Otsego (6-1), Union City (5-2) at Reading (6-1).

Upper Peninsula

L’Anse (6-1) at Eagle River Northland Pines (7-0)

Northland Pines, the only Wisconsin team in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference, leads both L'Anse and Calumet by a win with this the final weekend of the league schedule. Calumet fell to Northland Pines by two on opening night and defeated L'Anse by 20 last week, which doesn't seem to indicate good things for the latter. But a win tonight would add another huge accomplishment to the Hornets' first winning season since 2007. 

Others that caught my eye: Negaunee (7-0) at Marquette (4-3), Pellston (4-3) at St. Ignace (7-0), Crystal Falls Forest Park (5-2) at Bessemer (4-2), Iron Mountain North Dickinson (7-0) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (4-3).

PHOTO: Elk Rapids' Derek Sentieri works to break away from Traverse City St. Francis tacklers during their game earlier this fall. (Click to see more at Terry McNamara Photography.)

Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012

October 24, 2012

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.

So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:

How would you have done so differently?

And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.

This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.

Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.

Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.

Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.

There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”

Observations and answers

A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.

Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season. 

No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.

The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.

Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.

And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way. 

Their journeys begin Friday.