Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Week 3 in Review
September 14, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Admittedly, last week's statewide slate of varsity football games didn't appear that intriguing on first glance.
Of course, that means we ended up with more noteworthy results than we expected – and some hard decisions picking which had the biggest impacts as we completed the first third of this season.
See below for five of the most significant finishes from every region of the state, plus links to coverage from those that stuck out most.
Bay & Thumb
Marlette 27, Reese 26
The Red Raiders are 3-0 for the fourth time in five seasons, but living a little on the edge after also beating Bad Axe by a point in Week 2. Reese (0-3) opened with 20 straight points, and took back the lead after Marlette’s first go-ahead score made it 21-20 during the second quarter. The Red Raiders took the lead back for good with a final score with just more than six minutes to play. Click for more from the Port Huron Times-Herald.
Also noted:
Pinconning 28, Whittemore-Prescott 6 – The Spartans (2-1) ended a five-game losing streak to the Cardinals (1-2), a 10-win team last season, with Pinconning’s start its best since its last playoff season of 2009.
Algonac 50, Imlay City 0 – The Muskrats’ story keeps getting better, with its 3-0 start equaling its best season finish since 2007 and its best start since 1972.
Lake Fenton 49, Montrose 21 – The Blue Devils (2-1) no doubt were happy to equal last season’s win total by contributing to the rival Rams’ first 1-2 start since 2009.
Saginaw Swan Valley 26, Alma 21 – The Vikings are finding their way post-Alex Grace, and moved to 2-1 by handing the Panthers (2-1) their first loss
Greater Detroit
Warren Mott 32, Macomb Dakota 27
After surging to a 26-0 lead, Mott held on against what was one of the state’s most impressive teams of the first two weeks. Dakota opened this fall by ending two-time reigning Division 1 champion Clarkston’s 27-game winning streak, then beat rival Clinton Township Chippewa Valley in Week 2. But Mott moved to 3-0 and in doing so gained nice footing in a Macomb Area Conference Red race that could be one of the most competitive in the state. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.
Also noted:
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 32, Sterling Heights Stevenson 28 – Quarterback Patrick Briningstool’s two touchdown passes during the final five minutes finished a late comeback for the Big Reds (2-1), who avenged last season’s loss to the Titans (2-1).
Detroit Martin Luther King 20, Detroit East English 15 – The Crusaders (3-0) withstood their first tough challenge of the Detroit Public School League schedule and earned their second win by five or fewer points while handing East English (2-1) its first loss.
Sterling Heights 13, St. Clair 10 – The Stallions won two games combined over the last two seasons but are 3-0 for the first time since 1987 after dropping St. Clair to 0-3.
West Bloomfield 35, Clarkston 21 – The Lakers moved to 3-0 for the first time since 1989 thanks in part to four TD runs by Trishton Jackson, while the tough early go continued for the Wolves (1-2).
Mid-Michigan
Grand Ledge 34, Lansing Sexton 32
Grand Ledge had to outlast a previously inexperienced but quickly improving Sexton team to reach 3-0 for the first time since 2011. After just one game of league play, the Comets look like strong favorites in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue, with Jackson the only other team in the league with fewer than two losses overall. Sexton (0-3) hadn’t lost a league game since Week 8 of 2012. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
East Lansing 28, Jackson 21 – Before handing Jackson (2-1) its first loss, the Trojans (1-2) had fallen by only 13 and seven points, respectively, to teams a combined 5-1.
Dansville 40, Fulton 27 – The Aggies have solidified themselves as a top-four team in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference the last few seasons, and for the second year in a row will take on powers Pewamo-Westphalia and Fowler in back-to-back weeks off a 3-0 start.
St. Johns 49, Mason 28 – Seemingly forgotten again in a league with usual favorites DeWitt and Mason (2-1), St. Johns (2-1) looks every bit the contender in the CAAC Red.
Eaton Rapids 34, Ionia 26 (2 OT) – These teams are in similar position in the CAAC White, both facing tough opponents ahead and Eaton Rapids (2-1) thankful for a slight upper hand as Ionia (1-2) must continue to build after a second loss by six or fewer points.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City Central 32, Traverse City West 26 (OT)
This season’s Patriot Game again went to Traverse City Central, which also celebrated the 600th win in program history and sits fifth all-time among Michigan high schools for varsity football victories. The Trojans (3-0) have beaten rival West (0-3) three of the last four seasons in the annual game at Thirlby Field. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Hillman 35, AuGres-Sims 20 – The Tigers (2-1) bounced back from a Week 2 loss to continue a recent winning streak over the North Star rival Wolverines (0-3).
Petoskey 38, Cadillac 13 – The Northmen (2-1) also bounced back from a Week 2 loss to down reigning Big North Conference champion Cadillac (0-3) for the first time since 2011.
Gaylord 17, Escanaba 7 – The Blue Devils (3-0) won this matchup of previous unbeatens, although Escanaba’s start remains its best since 2011.
Grayling 30, Maple City Glen Lake 15 – The Vikings (2-1) got back on the right foot quickly after a big Week 2 loss to rival Gaylord by handing league foe Glen Lake (2-1) its first loss this fall.
Southeast & Border
Morenci 22, Petersburg-Summerfield 8
Morenci’s success of a year ago wasn’t a one-time surge – the Bulldogs have now beaten three 2014 playoff teams to open this fall. Morenci has given up only single-digit points in nine its last 12 regular-season games, although the Tri-County Conference challenges should be tougher this time with Sand Creek rejuvenated and Clinton and Ottawa Lake-Whiteford both undefeated as well so far. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.
Also noted:
Brooklyn Columbia Central 26, Hillsdale 22 – The Eagles (3-0) won two games last season and hadn’t beaten Hillsdale (1-2) since 2011, including a 41-3 loss to the Hornets a year ago.
Homer 32, Concord 30 – The Trojans (2-1) took the momentum away from Concord (2-1), which had celebrated the week before a solid win over reigning Big Eight Conference champion Union City.
Jackson Lumen Christi 20, Battle Creek Harper Creek 17 – The Titans (3-0) remained undefeated with their second win this season by three points or fewer, and this one much closer than last year’s 34-14 win over Harper Creek (1-2).
Vandercook Lake 41, Addison 7 – The Jayhawks (3-0) early are outscoring opponents on average 36-7 during their best start since 2008.
Southwest Corridor
Portage Central 7, Stevensville Lakeshore 6
This was the second time in four seasons these teams played to within a point of each other – the other two games were decided by three and 10 – and Portage Central avenged last season’s 20-17 loss in part by blocking Lakeshore’s extra-point try with just under 10 minutes to play. The Southwest Michigan Athletic Conference West rivals have split their last four meetings – with the winner of this game going on to win the league title the last three seasons. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Also noted:
Battle Creek Central 35, Battle Creek Lakeview 27 – Central (1-2) broke a four-game losing streak against Lakeview (1-2) after scoring only seven points against the Spartans during those previous four matchups.
Delton Kellogg 21, Constantine 18 – The Panthers (2-1) had dropped all six meetings with Constantine (1-2) when the two were in the former Kalamazoo Valley Association, but are 1-0 against the Falcons now that they are in the Southwestern Athletic Conference.
Kalamazoo Central 18, Kalamazoo Loy Norrix 6 – This gives the Maroon Giants (1-2) a 4-3 advantage over the recent history of this rivalry after Loy Norrix (1-2) won last season 20-19.
Coldwater 35, Battle Creek Pennfield 8 – The undefeated Cardinals (3-0) have yet to give up more than eight points in a game this fall and haven’t given up double digits in the regular season since Week 7 of 2014.
Upper Peninsula
Bark River-Harris 56, Newberry 34
Every week the wins are getting more impressive for Bark River-Harris, which moved to 3-0 for the first time since 2009 while handing Newberry (2-1) its first loss. The Broncos literally have doubled their offensive output every week this season, from 14 points in a one-point win over Crystal Falls Forest Park on opening night, to 28 against Gogebic last week and 56 on Friday. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
Ishpeming Westwood 20, L’Anse 12 – The Patriots (2-1) won this first matchup between these two since the early 1990s, with L’Anse dropping its first game after two league wins.
Munising 12, Felch North Dickinson 8 – Make that 11 straight regular-season wins for the Mustangs (3-0), although the Nordics (1-2) gave them the toughest test during that run.
Iron Mountain 26, Iron River West Iron County 0 – The Mountaineers (2-0) avenged a 24-0 shutout from a year ago at the hands of the rival Wykons (0-3).
Sault Ste. Marie 35, Marquette 21 – The Blue Devils (2-1) broke a five-game losing streak to Marquette (0-3) to move to 2-1 for the first time since 2008.
West Michigan
Muskegon 39, Grandville 12
Friday turned into a flood of historical references and national headlines from Michigan's west coast after Muskegon became the state's first high school football program to earn 800 varsity wins – which also puts the Big Reds tied for ninth in national high school history. They are 2-1 this season and 800-274-43 dating to 1895 (and watch for more on this on Second Half soon from MHSAA historian Ron Pesch, a Muskegon resident and the expert on the subject). Grandville fell to 2-1. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
East Grand Rapids 35, Caledonia 28 – With plenty of tough competition ahead, this was huge for the Pioneers (3-0) as Caledonia (2-1) also has been one of this area’s most impressive teams early.
Zealand East 39, Hudsonville 33 – Last season’s uncharacteristic 2-7 finish for East (3-0) included a 40-0 loss to Hudsonville (2-1), making this a pretty significant turnaround to say the least.
Ada Forest Hills Eastern 48, Grand Rapids West Catholic 15 – This is a signature win for the still-emerging coach Eddie Ostipow era at Forest Hills Eastern (3-0); the Hawks had dropped all three of their recent meetings with the two-time reigning Division 5 champion.
Muskgon Mona Shores 31, Rockford 10 – Last season’s three-point loss to Rockford (1-2) was Mona Shores’ only defeat of the regular season; the Sailors (3-0) might be even stronger this fall and will have more opportunities to prove it.
8-Player
Rapid River 28, Cedarville 14 – As explained last week, Cedarville’s only regular-season losses of the last three years have come, now three times, to the Rockets (3-0). But for the first time since both moved to 8-player football, they aren’t in the same league – which means a possible rematch in the playoffs for the second straight year would mean infinitely more than this appetizer.
Also noted:
Peck 28, Kinde-North Huron 22 – The generally-powerful Pirates came back from a significant Week 2 loss to Morrice by taking an early upper hand in the North Central Thumb 8-Man League.
Powers North Central 76, Bellaire 14 – Circle Week 8 against Rapid River on the North Central schedule; the Jets (3-0), in their first season of 8-player, are looking that dangerous after winning big over another of the annual powers in Bellaire (2-1).
PHOTO: St. Louis, here adding a few more points in last week's 38-6 win over Breckenridge, is 3-0 for the first time since 1978. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)