Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Week 1 in Review
August 31, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Another MHSAA football season began this weekend. Where do we begin ...
The two longest active winning streaks in Michigan came to an end. Three Detroit Public School League teams beat opponents that finished 2014 playing at Ford Field. And that's just the start.
See below for five of the most significant results to come from each of eight regions around the state, plus three 8-player games that could mean much as the season unfolds.
Bay & Thumb
Bad Axe 20, Harbor Beach 6
Bad Axe last beat Harbor Beach in 2009 – and then lost the last five season openers to the Pirates by a combined score of 242-0. But the Hatchets made the playoffs last season for the first time since 2001, and now can claim giving Harbor Beach only its second regular-season loss since the start of the 2011 season. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.
Also noted:
Algonac 19, Marine City 18 – The Muskrats had one win a year ago and had dropped 15 straight to Marine City, which finished its typical 10-1 in 2014.
Davison 29, Fenton 26 – The Cardinals opened 1-0 for the first time since 2012 and after falling to Fenton 35-0 only a year ago.
Ortonville-Brandon 11, Goodrich 10 – Zach Clements’ 37-yard field goal with two seconds left avenged last season’s 33-7 opening-night loss to the Martians.
Richmond 20, Marysville 12 – The Blue Devils ran their streak to three straight wins over Marysville, last season’s District Final opponent; this time they were inspired by co-coach John Kocher, who is undergoing treatment for cancer.
Greater Detroit
Macomb Dakota 35, Clarkston 10
Over two weeks, the three longest winning streaks in Michigan football have ended. Ithaca (69) and Ishpeming (33) saw theirs come to a close at last season’s MHSAA Finals, and Clarkston’s 27-game streak was stopped by a Dakota team that nearly broke it last season before it really got rolling when the Wolves won by three on opening night. Running back Kaiser Carleton ran for 207 yards and three touchdowns for the Cougars, who are playing this season for a 15th-straight playoff berth. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.
Also noted:
Detroit Catholic Central 15, Muskegon 12 – Last season’s 4-5 finish became a little more of a distant memory as the Shamrocks edged the reigning Division 3 runner-up.
Detroit Martin Luther King 12, Warren DeLaSalle 10 – The Crusaders opened a season filled with high expectations by beginning to meet them in downing last fall’s Division 2 champion.
Detroit Renaissance 22, Lansing Sexton 14 – The Phoenix earned its first opening-night win since 2008 against the rebuilt but still reigning Division 4 runners-up Big Reds.
Walled Lake Western 42, Lowell 40 – Western’s massive road win came down to the final minutes and made the Red Arrows 0-1 for the first time since 1993.
Mid-Michigan
Pewamo-Westphalia 26, Madison Heights Madison 25 (OT)
These two combined for a 19-6 record, two District titles and a Regional championship a year ago, when Madison opened with an 18-6 win over the Pirates. But this one went to P-W when it chose to go for two points instead of one after an overtime touchdown and standout running back Jared Smith finished the game with a conversion. Click for more from the Ionia Sentinel-Standard.
Also noted:
Jackson Lumen Christi 22, Grand Rapids West Catholic 21 – Two squads met after graduating their stars from a year ago and played to a classic that resulted in the end of West Catholic’s 23-game winning streak.
Charlotte 38, Ionia 35 – Another last-second field goal gave the Orioles revenge for last season’s 28-0 first-game loss to the Bulldogs.
Ithaca 42, Clare 14 – The Yellowjackets started a new winning streak by making it two straight on opening night over the reigning Jack Pine Conference champ.
Beal City 28, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 6 – This was much closer than the final score for most of the game, and much closer than 36 and 61-point wins for Beal City over the Irish the last two seasons.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Boyne City 38, Mendon 14
Coming off its first MHSAA Semifinal run since 2001, Boyne City faced the test of replacing a number of top contributors and opening against another small-school program that annually reloads. So far, so good as the Ramblers ran for more than 300 yards and scored 38 of the game’s final 45 points after giving up the game’s first score. Click for more from the Petoskey News.
Also noted:
Big Rapids 17, Cadillac 14 (2 OT) – The Cardinals couldn’t have picked a tougher opponent than Cadillac (20-2 the last two seasons) to begin a bounce-back from its 4-14 finish over the last two years.
Lake City 33, Harrison 32 (OT) – The Trojans enjoyed a dramatic finish coming off their first losing season since 2008 and a 28-0 loss to Harrison in last year’s opener.
Rogers City 14, AuGres-Sims 8 – The Hurons have improved their win total each of the last three seasons and took a nice step toward continuing by avenging last season’s 28-14 loss to the Wolverines.
Gaylord 49, Cheboygan 0 – The Blue Devils finished 5-4 a year ago after going 1-4 over their final five games; consider this another start on their pursuit of a first playoff berth since 2005.
Southwest Corridor
Battle Creek Lakeview 12, Portage Northern 6
The stakes weren’t as high this time after the teams met for a District championship last season – when Lakeview was victorious as well, 21-0. But the Spartans were able to further venge a 28-24 loss to Portage Northern on opening night of 2014, stopping the Huskies as they drove to tie the score midway through the fourth quarter. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
Also noted:
Stevensville Lakeshore 34, Battle Creek Central 26 – The result was the same, and the game still close, although not decided in as intriguing a way as Lakeshore’s 2-0 win over Central on a safety a year ago.
Cassopolis 35, Niles Brandywine 8 – They’re in different divisions of the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference this season, but the Rangers still no doubt enjoyed avenging last season’s 27-26 loss.
Plainwell 32, Three Rivers 21 – It ended a lot closer than last season’s 34-0 Plainwell win, but remained an important victory over another playoff team from a year ago.
South Haven 30, Sturgis 25 – The Rams are 1-0 after opening night for the first time since 2007.
Southeast & Border
Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 62, Tecumseh 39
The reigning Division 6 champion Falcons opened coach Adam Kipf’s era with a dominating performance reminiscent of predecessor Jack Giarmo’s hard-running teams. SMCC rushed for more than 450 yards to down Tecumseh, a Division 3 playoff qualifier in 2014. Click to read more from the Monroe Evening News.
Also noted:
Jackson 40, Ann Arbor Huron 7 – The Vikings’ equaled last season’s win total with its most points in a game since Week 8 of 2013 and after scoring only 122 total in 2014.
Saline 37, Rockford 24 – Reigning Division 1 runner-up Saline may indeed be the state’s best team, and this only furthered that argument.
Clinton 20, Manchester 19 – The Redskins made it 28 straight regular-season wins by just edging a Manchester team that finished 8-2 a year ago.
Howell 28, Monroe 14 – The Highlanders haven’t made the playoffs since 2012 but got off to the right start avenging last season’s 21-14 loss to Monroe, a playoff team three of the last four years.
Upper Peninsula
Bark River-Harris 14, Crystal Falls Forest Park 13
The Broncos burst back into the Upper Peninsula’s elite going 8-3 last season and making the playoffs for the first time since 2009, but two of those losses were to Forest Park – including 36-12 in the District Final. Any time these days that the Trojans lose short of Ford Field, it sends a little shockwave through the U.P. – and they haven’t started a season 0-1 since 2004, although they finished that season in the Division 8 championship game. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
Munising 12, Iron River West Iron County 6 – These teams combined to go 21-3 last season, but this round goes to Munising after West Iron beat the Mustangs in the last two openers.
L’Anse 8, Houghton 6 – The Purple Hornets took a step back last season after two straight playoff appearances, but hope a second-straight two-point win over Houghton points them back in the winning direction.
Ishpeming 14, Iron Mountain 7 – This annual opening-night battle returned to its usual level of competitiveness after Ishpeming had shut out the Mountaineers 106-0 over the last three seasons.
Menominee 49, Marinette, Wis. 21 – Chapter 109 of Michigan’s longest interstate rivalry went to the Maroons, who lead the series 52-50-7.
West Michigan
Muskegon Oakridge 45, Muskegon Catholic Central 26
Oakridge is coming off a 10th-straight playoff appearance, so its ending of MCC’s 26-game winning streak doesn’t seem like a complete shocker. But the Eagles still should receive plenty of credit for loading up the nonleague slate like perhaps no team in MHSAA history, with two straight games against reigning champions – MCC won Division 8 a year ago and Detroit Loyola, next week’s opponent, won Division 7. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
East Grand Rapids 28, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 14 – The Pioneers made it three wins in four seasons in one of the state’s most anticipated openers between previous year’s playoff teams.
Saugatuck 43, Constantine 40 – After just missing the playoffs last season at 5-4, Saugatuck started this fall by edging a powerhouse that hasn’t missed the postseason since 1990.
East Kentwood 35, Farmington Hills Harrison 28 – There’s little better to start the season than an opener between cross-state contenders like this one between teams that went a combined 21-5 last fall, and this result tells plenty of reason why.
Grand Rapids Christian 32, Grand Rapids South Christian 28 – The Eagles survived their closest of a six-game opening night winning streak against the Sailors.
8-player
Kinde-North Huron 54, Carsonville-Port Sanilac 14
Kinde-North Huron fell back to 2-7 last season after two playoff seasons including a run to the MHSAA Semifinals in 2013, and scored only 122 points total in 2014. But this win could be the sign of better times this fall; the Warriors were 1-3 overall against CPS since moving to 8-player, and lost 13-12 to the Tigers a year ago. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.
Also noted:
Rapid River 26, Onaway 12 – Onaway, playing its first game after switching from 11-player, gave the Rockets a rare close regular-season game.
Webberville 40, Dryden 38 – The Spartans scored eight fewer points than against Dryden a year ago, but gave up 48 fewer than in the 2014 86-48 opening-night loss.
PHOTO: Mason opened with a 56-30 win over Okemos after falling to the rival Chieftains 28-14 a year ago.