Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Ithaca Focuses Again on Number 1

August 17, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

ITHACA – Leaders talked Thursday about getting back to Ford Field after finishing 2014 with a loss.

The coach discussed the value of experience and how seniors are key to a successful season.

Players started their first workout on their home practice field by stretching and working on special teams. When they were thirsty, they drank water. They wore helmets, shoulder pads, shorts and shoes.

Ithaca might’ve had the nation’s longest active 11-player football winning streak snapped last season – but during this afternoon, nothing seemed much different than for about 600 other teams in Michigan looking to begin this fall 1-0.

“That’s the first question everybody asked me last season. But it’s over now, and we’ve just got to focus on this season,” said senior Jake Smith, the returning quarterback, of the five-season run. “There’s not as much pressure anymore. We don’t have to carry on a streak. But we want to start a new one.”

And that's where this practice and any by the Yellowjackets likely will differ from most in Michigan this fall.

The practice field was filled with veterans, with nine starters back on offense and 13 who started at least one game on defense during last season's run to the Division 6 championship game, which ended in a 22-12 streak-breaking loss to Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central. 

Those are some key numbers to immediately digest, but numbers became part of the swirl around Ithaca’s incredible run of the last five seasons.

First up was 44 – the number of games Ithaca won in a row to pass Cheboygan for the MHSAA’s longest streak that came all during the playoff era, which began in 1975.

Then came 57 – the number of games Ithaca had won consecutively when it took over sole possession as the nation’s most consistent winner thanks to a loss by Regina High School in Iowa City, Iowa, last August.

There was 72 – the number of consecutive wins by Hudson from Sept. 1968-Nov. 1975 that remains the MHSAA record, although, it is noted, that streak included only one playoff win before Hudson fell in the inaugural Class C Final to see its run end.

Finally, the end came at 69 – the number of games Ithaca won from opening night in 2010 until falling in to Monroe St. Mary on Nov. 28.

And now there’s only 1 – the number of wins in a row Ithaca will play for when it opens against Clare on Aug. 28, and the ranking in its division the Yellowjackets will strive for again after winning four of the last five Division 6 titles.

“I hate to think of it as a start over,” Ithaca coach Terry Hessbrook said as his team started its first practice at home after three days of camp in Hawks, near Rogers City. “There’s lots of experience out here, and it’s been a nice few days. I haven’t had to raise my voice because they know what the goal is, and they know what the process is that you’ve got to go through to get to it. And it’s quite a climb – you don’t get to start where you finish (the year before).

“(But) you finish on such a high, even if you lose.”

Rewind to last season’s loss, if only for a minute.

Monroe St. Mary relied in part on a senior quarterback in Bryce Windham and a 1,000-yard rusher in senior running back John Lako. Ithaca, meanwhile, returned to Ford Field with only six seniors and only a few who played significant roles – and really, were a surprise after conquering a road that included No. 8 Millington, No. 10 Madison Heights Madison and No. 5 Boyne City, the final two wins decided by senior-like clutch play in the fourth quarter.

Ithaca and Monroe St. Mary literally traded scores in the Final, although Ithaca never led. Smith ran for a 3-yard score with 33 seconds left in the third quarter to pull the Yellowjackets to within three points at 15-12. But neither team scored again until St. Mary added a touchdown with 1:41 to play.

And yet, the welcome at home that night had Ithaca feeling like it was a champion still.

“We had more people show up when we returned than maybe when we won the third or fourth (title),” said Hessbrook, who starred as a running back at Ithaca from 1982-84 and took over as head coach before the 2004 season. “The community kind’ve stood in unison and said, ‘That was pretty cool that we just got to go on that ride.’

“I get chills just talking about it.”

There could be more to come.

Smith, who has had college football conversations with Harvard and Yale among others, threw for 2,134 yards and 27 touchdowns last season and ran for 1,391 more yards and 20 scores. His top three receivers last season all were juniors; Spence DeMull is recovering from an injury, but caught 66 passes for 1,193 yards and 16 TDs. Senior Jace Demenov, the team’s leading tackler the last two seasons, is moving from offensive line to a tight end/receiver combo and is among a few who should emerge as reliable targets. Nose tackle Jonah Loomis was the team’s second-leading tackler last season and also is a senior this fall.

Eight of this season’s seniors were on the varsity as sophomores, so they’ve played 28 games – including 10 during the playoffs. Still, Ithaca is coming off a loss … not something it’s been used to of late.

“(Local people) ask who is coming back, and we just say everybody,” Demenov said. “In years past, people knew who was coming back and what it was going to be like. People are asking this year who do we have, are we going to be good.

“It’s a game that we lost, an important game for us. We all worked for it, and to have an ending like that really bugged us. It was fun saying we had the longest streak in the nation, but the pressure’s not off. We’re coming back stronger than ever.”

As one might expect, history says Ithaca should remain elite. Hudson went 9-0 in 1976 coming off its streak-ending loss in the 1975 Final. Cheboygan won 10 of its next 11 starting at the end of 1982 and finished 1983 at 8-1. Farmington Hills Harrison came off the end of its 36-game winning streak from 1999-2002 by finishing the latter 8-3 and going 11-2 in 2003, and Fowler won the 1998 Class D title with a 10-3 record after seeing its 33-game win streak end in a 1997 Regional Final.

Still, there isn’t a script Hessbrook can refer to in this situation since so few have been in such a spot. He said it’s up to these seniors to leave their mark – be it playing 10 games, or 12, or getting all the way back to Ford Field.

Winning 14 in a row wouldn’t be 70 or 71 – but more than good enough, even if it comes with fewer people watching Ithaca’s every move.

“I think they should follow us,” Smith said. “We slipped up one game. We’re still a great team that’s going to go out there and put on a show for the fans.

“Anybody that follows us this year is not going to be disappointed.”

Geoff Kimmerly joined the MHSAA as its Media & Content Coordinator in Sept. 2011 after 12 years as Prep Sports Editor of the Lansing State Journal. He has served as Editor of Second Half since its creation in Jan. 2012. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for the Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Ionia, Clinton, Shiawassee, Gratiot, Isabella, Clare and Montcalm counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Ithaca players work on a blocking drill during Thursday's practice. (Middle) Coach Terry Hessbrook, left, explains how to field a kick to one of his special teamers. (Below) Jake Smith, carrying the ball, follows blocker Grant Gimmey.