Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Prepare to Compare: Clarkston Wins D1

November 29, 2014

By Bill Khan
Special for Second Half


DETROIT — Nolan Eriksen dislikes two things: Losing and comparisons to his older brother, Ian.

He's never had to experience a loss since being promoted to Clarkston's varsity football team before last year's MHSAA playoffs, so that's never been an issue.

But comparisons between the Eriksen brothers are plentiful — and valid.

Nolan, a junior running back, ran 28 times for 172 yards and three touchdowns as the Wolves repeated as MHSAA Division 1 champions with a 33-25 victory over first-time finalist Saline on Saturday at Ford Field.

A year ago, Ian Eriksen ran 32 times for 237 yards and three touchdowns against Detroit Catholic Central, leading Clarkston to its first title.

So, you'd think that Nolan would've leaned upon his brother's advice now that he was the starting running back in the championship game.

Nope.

"I was just trying to do what I do," Nolan said. "People always try to compare us and stuff, but I just try to play my game and do the best I can for my team. No advice. ... Every now and then we'll talk about it a little bit, but mainly we try to keep it pretty separate. We just do our own thing."

Senior quarterback D.J. Zezula has no problem comparing the brothers. He's got a unique perspective, having handed the ball to each during his three-year career as Clarkston's starter.

"Noah doesn't want to be compared, but they're twins in my eyes," said Zezula, who ran 17 times for 120 yards and a 70-yard touchdown. "They're both hard-hitting football players. Mr. (Mark) Eriksen coached me when I was younger; he's the same way. They're awesome kids. They want what's best for the team. I love both of them. I love Mr. Eriksen. They're great guys. He coached me my first two years of football that I ever played."

While Ian Eriksen was the workhorse for Clarkston's first championship team, Nolan watched from the sidelines, as is typical for junior varsity players who are promoted after the regular season. He said he "got a couple plays" during the 2013 playoff run, but never saw action at Ford Field.

Just being part of the atmosphere last year was beneficial once he stepped onto the field Saturday, Eriksen said.

"We've been here before," he said. "We weren't too shocked looking around. We knew what the deal was. We knew what it felt like to be here. We knew what was riding on it. It was just the experience. It was incredible being able to look up there and see your whole town there and getting it done."

Eriksen had a solid first half, running 12 times for 61 yards and a touchdown, but he was a key reason why Clarkston took over in the second half after trailing 10-7 at halftime. Eriksen ran 16 times for 111 yards and two scores in the second half, as Clarkston scored touchdowns on four of its first five possessions after halftime.

"These guys have taught me something," Clarkston coach Kurt Richardson said. "The old Kurt Richardson would've blown up at half with two turnovers and stuff. We just said, 'Hey, we're fine. We're down three. We didn't play very well. We're getting the ball, so everything's fine.' I learned it from these guys."

Poise comes more naturally when a team has won 27 straight games — now the longest active streak in Michigan following Finals losses this weekend by Ithaca (69) and Ishpeming (33).

The Wolves needed only four plays after the second-half kickoff to take the lead for good on a 52-yard pass from Zezula to Merrick Canada with 10:09 left in the third quarter. A bobbled snap prevented an extra-point kick, leaving Clarkston up by a 13-10 score.

Clarkston's only three-and-out of the second half came on the next series, but the Wolves followed with three straight touchdown drives. A 2-yard run by Eriksen made it 20-10 with 47 seconds left in the third quarter before Zezula kept it and ran 70 yards for a touchdown with 8:17 remaining in the game, expanding the lead to 27-10.

Just before that touchdown, Saline missed a chance to make it a one-possession game. The Hornets had first-and-goal at the 8-yard line, but settled for a 24-yard field goal attempt that was wide left.

Saline also missed a field goal on the first series of the game, as linebacker Cole Chewins blocked the kick. Chewins, who has committed to Miami (Ohio) as a tight end, also batted down three passes.

"With the deflections and stuff, that was just playing the game," Chewins said. "I was able to make plays and just play football."

Saline coach Joe Palka tried to run plays away from Chewins, who had his blocked kick and two of his knockdowns early in the game.

"We had to adjust and go to the other side, just because he can cover so much ground and he's got such good range," Palka said.

Saline cut the deficit to 27-17 when quarterback Josh Jackson scored on a 1-yard run with 5:15 remaining.

Clarkston (14-0) recovered the onside kick, then marched 50 yards in eight plays, the final 22 yards coming on a touchdown run by Eriksen with 1:57 on the clock. The extra point failed, keeping it a two-possession game at 33-17.

That loomed as a potential issue when it took Saline only four plays to reach the end zone on a 2-yard run by Kevin Gross with 1:09 to go. Cameron Cole caught a 2-point pass from Jackson to make it an eight-point game.

Clarkston's Shane Holler recovered the onside kick, allowing the Wolves to clinch the title with two kneel-downs.

Jackson, a junior, was 20-for-31 for 237 yards while running 17 times for 82 yards and a touchdown to lead Saline, which won a school-record 12 games (to finish 12-2) and advanced beyond the Regional Final for the first time.

"It's an amazing thing for Saline football," Jackson said. "It's the best team ever in Saline. That we got to play on this stage was an amazing opportunity. Going into next year, that will just give us fire to come back here and try to win it."

Even though his career ended Saturday after starting at quarterback for teams that went 37-2 over three seasons, Zezula is mindful of what these back-to-back championships will mean for the future of the Clarkston program. The Wolves lost in Semifinals three times in 16 playoff appearances under Richardson before breaking through last year.

"Last year was kind of like breaking the mold, breaking this dark cloud over Clarkston that we could never win, could never get there," Zezula said. "This year was about building a legacy, a tradition here at Clarkston. ...

"It hits home when the little kids, the seventh-graders at our youth camps, wear my jersey and wear No. 5. That's where it really hits home, just to pave the way for the younger kids and start a legacy, start a tradition here that winning is what's got to happen at Clarkston." 

Click for full statistics.

PHOTOS: (Top) Clarkston's Nolan Eriksen takes a handoff as his lineman work to open a gap near the goalline Saturday. (Middle) Quarterback D.J. Zezula looks for a receiver while those on the Saline sideline look on. (Click for action photos and team photos from Hockey Weekly Action Photos.)

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS:

GROSS GETS SALINE STARTED - Saline started the scoring in the second quarter against Clarkston with Kevin Gross running it in from 27 yards out.
 
OH CANADA! CLARKSTON GOES ON TOP - Clarkston took the lead to stay in the Division 1 championship game when D.J. Zezula hit a wide open Merrick Canada on a 52-yard pass.

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