Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Week 3 in Review
September 15, 2014
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Yes, it's only mid-September. We've got a long way to go in this MHSAA football season.
But there were a number of games played during Week 3 that should impact significantly how league races unfold through the end of the October.
A few you won't read about below but are worth including: Mason County Central ended a seven-game losing streak to Shelby with a 12-6 win and could make some noise in the West Michigan D. Newaygo beat annual favorite Reed City, 14-6, for the first time as a member of the Central State Activities Association and could now be the favorite in the new Gold division.
And those are just scratches on the surface; read on for more that should provide lasting impact this fall.
West Michigan
Lowell 30, East Grand Rapids 25
Make no mistake – East Grand Rapids (2-1) is back after two non-playoff seasons, and despite falling in this heartbreaker Friday. The Red Arrows (3-0) went ahead for good during the final minutes on Max Dean’s fourth touchdown of the night. Life doesn’t get easier for either team – East Grand Rapids faces Muskegon next and both play in the highly-competitive O-K White. But it’s tough to imagine a better way to kick off the league schedule. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Rockford 10, Muskegon Mona Shores 7 – In two years, Mona Shores (2-1) has gone from sub-.500 to first-time playoff qualifier and now competitor with an elite program in Rockford (3-0).
Grand Rapids South Christian 33, Hudsonville Unity Christian 30 (OT) – The Sailors (1-2) have had a tough start against tough competition, but finally broke through against the improved Crusaders (2-1).
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 31, Caledonia 19 – After also opening with two tough losses, Forest Hills Central (1-2) got in the win column against a Caledonia (2-1) team that had been one of the state’s most impressive early.
Greenville 36, Comstock Park 16 – Greenville (2-1) is off to its best start since 2011, impressive all the more after beating Comstock Park (1-2), winners of 22 of its last 24 regular-season games.
Southwest and Border
Watervliet 18, Mendon 13
Even after winning 10 games two of the last three seasons, Watervliet probably was a passing thought for most in this game given Mendon’s 35-game regular-season winning streak. In fact, the Hornets hadn’t lost a regular-season game to an in-state opponent since 2006 – that 2010 loss was to Edgerton, Ohio. Mendon (2-1) was undermanned a bit – eight seniors did not play – but that shouldn’t take away from a huge victory for the Panthers (2-1). Click to read more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Also noted:
Stevensville Lakeshore 20, Portage Central 17 – Lakeshore (3-0) handed Portage Central (1-1) its first regular-season loss since Week 8 of 2012.
St. Joseph 17, Portage Northern 7 – Knocking off solid Portage Northern (2-1) makes the Bears (3-0) early favorites with Lakeshore in the always-tough Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West.
Vicksburg 16, Edwardsburg 14 – The Bulldogs (3-0), coming off two straight sub-.500 seasons, beat Edwardsburg (2-1) after losing by a combined score of 81-27 over the last two meetings.
Coldwater 35, Battle Creek Pennfield 6 – The Cardinals (3-0) made the playoffs last season, for the first time ever, with an at-large bid at 5-4. But they are halfway to automatic qualification after dealing perennial playoff team Pennfield (0-3) another disappointment.
Bay and Thumb
Montrose 27, Lake Fenton 12
The Rams (3-0) ran their Genesee Area Conference Red winning streak to 22 and set back again Lake Fenton (1-2), league runner-up to Montrose the last two seasons. Lake Fenton stood within two points of the lead in the third quarter before the Rams pulled away. The last league team to beat Montrose was Flint Beecher, this season’s Week 8 opponent. Click to read more from the Flint Journal.
Also noted:
Flint Carman-Ainsworth 31, Davison 8 – The Cavaliers (2-1) came back from their Week 2 one-point heart-breaking loss to Mount Pleasant by beating former league rival Davison (1-2) for the fifth straight time.
Flint Southwestern 58, Saginaw 8 – The Knights (2-1) equaled their win total of the last three seasons and can equal their most since 2008 with another victory; Saginaw fell to 0-3.
Marlette 51, Reese 34 – Marlette’s Connor Thomas, a member of the MHSAA Student Advisory Council, ran for 217 yards and four touchdowns and also caught a touchdown pass as the Raiders moved to 2-1 and Reese fell to 1-2.
St. Clair 32, Sterling Heights 31 – Sterling Heights (0-3) won only once in 2013, but nearly pulled off its best victory in at least a few years as the Saints (2-1) had to come back in the fourth quarter riding the strength of four rushing touchdowns from Larry Ochadleus.
Lower Up North
Traverse City Central 20, Traverse City West 13
Central (3-0) got some revenge after last season’s three-point overtime loss that played a part in the Trojans missing the playoffs. West (1-2) may still own a 12-6 advantage in their series, but Central definitely has the upper hand in this season’s Big North Conference race although it’s only one game old for both. Click to read more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Cadillac 27, Petoskey 7 – Cadillac (3-0) kicked off the Big North Conference season by handing a first loss to Petoskey (2-1) and keeping up a defensive effort allowing only nine points per game.
Maple City Glen Lake 15, Grayling 8 – The Lakers (2-0) have tough opponents lined up for at least the next five weeks but should contend, while Grayling (1-2) now is forced to bounce back to extend its five-season playoff streak.
Lincoln Alcona 22, Rogers City 6 – Alcona (3-0) quietly has won 15 straight regular-season games, with this one impressive as Rogers City (2-1) appears in the midst of turning things around after four straight sub.-500 finishes.
Cheboygan 13, Escanaba 12 – The Chiefs (1-2) were off to a rough start after two straight playoff seasons, but took a first step toward extending the streak while dropping Escanaba to 1-2.
Upper Peninsula
Gladstone 24, Negaunee 19
Although Gladstone started with two wins this fall after going 0-9 two of the last three seasons, it was fair to assume the Braves’ success would come to a quick end with Negaunee followed by the Great Northern U.P. Conference schedule. It’s time to rethink that assumption. Not only is Gladstone 3-0 for the first time since 2009, but got there by beating a Miners team that also started 2-0 and won 10 games each of the last two seasons. Click to read more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
Hurley, Wis. 18, Crystal Falls Forest Park 14 – Hurley (4-0) is one of the top-ranked small schools in Wisconsin, and beating Forest Park (2-1) no doubt will help that cause in addition to giving Hurley a huge advantage in the Great Western Conference race.
Ishpeming Westwood 48, Rudyard 0 – This wouldn’t usually register except that Westwood (3-0) won two games total in 2013 and three in 2012; Rudyard (0-3) is hoping for a quick turnaround.
Lake Linden-Hubbell 33, L’Anse 20 – The Lakes (2-1) avenged last season’s 52-34 playoff-opener loss to the Hornets (1-2).
Menominee 37, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 23 – We love when our best from the Upper Peninsula get together with tough teams from downstate, and this was a great way for the Maroons (3-0) to prepare for their Great Northern U.P. Conference schedule while giving Notre Dame Prep (1-2) another competitive nonleague game.
Mid-Michigan
Lansing Sexton 32, Grand Ledge 21
Although the league opener, this could end up one of the most important games in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue this season if not the championship decider. Sexton (3-0) has yet to play a home game this season but has continued to build an impressive resume adding the Comets to Detroit East English and Monroe among those defeated so far. Grand Ledge (1-2) made a run at the lead during the second half but couldn’t climb back after Sexton went up three scores during the second quarter. Click to read more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Okemos 23, Lansing Everett 13 – The Chieftains (2-1) are looking like contenders in the CAAC Blue as well although a difficult early slate gets tougher with Grand Ledge and Sexton next; Everett (1-2) will attempt to bounce back against Holt.
Jackson Lumen Christi 34, Battle Creek Harper Creek 14 – These two have looked like favorites in the first-year Interstate 8 Athletic Conference, although Lumen Christi (3-0) remains undefeated and Harper Creek (1-2) must bounce back from a tough start.
St. Johns 28, Haslett 13 – The Redwings (3-0) are one of the surprises in the CAAC Red and best teams from the Lansing area, while Haslett (1-2) is working to stay in contention in the competitive league.
Ithaca 33, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 14 – This was a little more of a scare than Ithaca (3-0) has had in a while, as the Yellowjackets trailed MLS (2-1) by a point at halftime.
Greater Detroit
Brownstown Woodhaven 42, Allen Park 35 (OT)
Woodhaven (3-0) came out ahead in another close Downriver League battle, this time in overtime after beating Southgate Anderson by two in Week 2. The Warriors need only one more win to equal last season’s finish and already have avenged three of those 2013 losses. Always-solid Allen Park is still there despite falling to 2-1. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.
Also noted:
Macomb Dakota 35, Warren Mott 7 – Dakota (2-1) is laying a strong early claim on the Macomb Area Red title, with Mott (2-1) previously expected to be a contender but now facing an uphill battle.
Sterling Heights Stevenson 21, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 7 – This changes up the MAC Red race as well with Chippewa Valley (1-2) formerly a contender and Stevenson (2-1) now an intriguing possibility despite a Week 2 loss to Utica Eisenhower.
Oak Park 27, Farmington Hills Harrison 0 – The right to challenge Southfield in the Oakland Activities Association White belongs firmly to Oak Park (2-1), which hasn’t given up a point since Week 1 and dropped Harrison to 2-1 as well.
Clinton 54, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 30 – Whiteford (2-1) might’ve been the biggest obstacle as Clinton (3-0) goes for a third straight 9-0 regular season.
8-Player
Portland St. Patrick 27, Waldron 6
The Shamrocks (3-0) have the highest playoff point average in 8-player thanks in part to handing Waldron (2-1) its first loss. The victory also made Portland St. Patrick 21-4 since moving to 8-player football in 2012 – and continued an impressive defensive effort this fall as the team is giving up only eight points per game. Click to read more from the Hillsdale Daily News.
Also noted:
Rapid River 36, Ontonagon 22 – Although Ontonagon (0-2) is new to 8-player football, it gave Rapid River (3-0) its closest regular-season game since Week 9 of 2012.
Deckerville 66, Carsonville-Port Sanilac 13 – The Eagles (3-0) added to their recent dominance of rival CPS (0-3) with their second-most points in three seasons of 8-player ball.
PHOTO: Lowell charges toward the end zone during its 30-25 come-from-behind win over East Grand Rapids on Friday. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com).