Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Week 9 Football Playoff Listing

October 22, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Here is a list of Michigan High School Athletic Association football playing schools, displaying their win-loss records and playoff averages through the eighth week of the season. Schools on this list are in enrollment order. An asterisk (*) beside a record indicates that a team has eight or fewer games scheduled. A caret (^) beside a school’s name indicates that a team is one win away from playoff qualification.

Those schools with 11-player teams with six or more wins playing nine-game schedules, or five or more wins playing eight games or fewer, will qualify for the MHSAA Football Playoffs beginning Nov. 1-2. Schools with 5-4, 4-3 or 4-4 records may qualify if the number of potential qualifiers by win total does not reach the 256 mark. Schools with six or more wins playing nine-game schedules or five or more wins playing eight games or fewer may be subtracted from the field based on playoff average if the number of potential qualifiers exceeds the 256 mark.

Once the 256 qualifying schools are determined, they will be divided by enrollment groups into eight equal divisions of 32 schools, and then drawn into regions of eight teams each and districts of four teams each.

Those schools with 8-player teams will be ranked by playoff average at season’s end, and the top 16 programs will be drawn into regions of eight teams each for the playoff in that division, which also begins Nov. 1-2.

To review a list of all football playoff schools, individual school playoff point details and to report errors, visit the Football page of the MHSAA Website.

The announcement of the qualifiers and first-round pairings for both the 11 and 8-player playoffs will take place on Oct. 27 on the Selection Sunday Show at 7 p.m. on FOX Sports Detroit. The playoff qualifiers and pairings will be posted to the MHSAA Website following the Selection Sunday Show.
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11-Player Playoff Listing

1. Sterling Heights Stevenson, 2781, 4-4, 51.500                 
2. Utica Eisenhower, 2772, 4-4, 53.750                                    
3. Clarkston, 2737, 7-1, 95.500                                     
4. Macomb Dakota, 2693, 8-0, 108.000                                    
5. Howell ^, 2672, 5-3, 64.625                                      
6. Grand Blanc, 2624, 6-2, 81.625                                               
7. East Kentwood ^, 2612, 5-3, 66.750                                     
8. Rockford, 2572, 7-1, 92.750                                     
9. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley, 2506, 7-1, 95.875  
10. Lake Orion, 2490, 6-2, 78.375                                                
11. Dearborn Fordson ^, 2309, 5-3, 68.589                             
12. Holland West Ottawa ^, 2293, 5-3, 66.000                       
13. Northville, 2275, 7-1, 97.250                                 
14. Detroit Cass Tech, 2262, 8-0, 107.000                                                
15. Brighton ^, 2164, 5-3, 69.000                                                                
16. Monroe ^, 2145, 5-3, 62.500                                 
17. Detroit Catholic Central, 2132, 7-1, 94.161                      
18. Plymouth ^, 2126, 5-3, 61.625                                              
19. Canton, 2078, 7-1, 95.750                                       
20. Novi, 1986, 4-4, 52.375                                                            
21. Livonia Stevenson, 1983, 4-4, 49.000                                 
22. Macomb L'Anse Creuse North, 1965, 7-1, 89.500         
23. West Bloomfield ^, 1941, 5-3, 63.750                                                
24. New Baltimore Anchor Bay, 1899, 4-4, 48.875                               
25. Saline, 1897, 7-1, 94.275                                         
26. Westland John Glenn ^, 1880, 5-3, 61.375                      
27. Holt, 1866, 4-4, 53.250                                                             
28. Warren Mott, 1796, 8-0, 99.000                                           
29. Romeo, 1793, 4-4, 54.750                                                       
30. Oxford, 1782, 4-4, 51.625                                                       
31. Rochester Hills Stoney Creek, 1759, 6-2, 79.250           
32. Hudsonville ^, 1736, 5-3, 70.875                                          
33. Ann Arbor Skyline, 1715, 4-4, 49.250                                 
34. Grand Ledge, 1715, 4-4, 51.250                                           
35. Belleville ^, 1714, 5-3, 64.750                                                
36. Davison, 1692, 4-4, 44.250                                                     
37. Walled Lake Northern, 1688, 6-2, 80.125                         
38. Traverse City West ^, 1653, 5-3, 66.500                            
39. Rochester, 1615, 4-4, 52.125                                 
40. Waterford Kettering ^, 1604, 5-3, 66.125                        
41. Temperance Bedford, 1600, 8-0, 114.000                        
42. Grosse Pointe South ^, 1598, 5-3, 62.500                        
43. Rochester Adams ^, 1582, 5-3, 67.000                                              
44. Saginaw Heritage ^, 1575, 5-3, 60.250                               
45. Warren DeLaSalle ^, 1564, 5-3, 74.500                                              
46. Walled Lake Western, 1556, 8-0, 108.000                        
47. Flint Carman-Ainsworth, 1488, 7-1, 86.875                     
48. Detroit U-D Jesuit, 1476, 4-4, 55.500                                 
49. Midland, 1462, 7-1, 90.750                                     
50. Ypsilanti Lincoln, 1460, 7-1, 85.875                                      
51. Pinckney ^, 1452, 5-3, 65.625                                               
52. Traverse City Central ^, 1448, 5-3, 60.571                        
53. Oak Park ^, 1438, 5-3, 64.875                                                
54. Detroit Martin Luther King *, 1432, 7-0, 103.571          
55. Royal Oak, 1414, 4-4, 47.625                                 
56. Southgate Anderson, 1409, 4-4, 48.500                           
57. Ypsilanti Community, 1399, 4-4, 45.000                            
58. Port Huron ^, 1398, 5-3, 63.107                                           
59. Wyandotte Roosevelt, 1373, 8-0, 110.000                       
60. Portage Central, 1372, 8-0, 108.000                                   
61. Lansing Everett ^, 1369, 5-3, 58.625                                   
62. Portage Northern, 1364, 6-2, 74.625                 
63. Garden City, 1362, 4-4, 47.125                                             
64. Southfield, 1356, 7-1, 95.875                                                
65. North Farmington *, 1352, 5-3, 56.286                             
66. Caledonia ^, 1350, 5-3, 60.000                                              
67. Battle Creek Lakeview, 1348, 8-0, 90.000                        
68. Birmingham Seaholm, 1337, 8-0, 103.000                        
69. Birmingham Brother Rice, 1326, 8-0, 111.200                 
70. Grosse Pointe North ^, 1323, 5-3, 65.375                        
71. Muskegon Mona Shores, 1314, 6-2, 79.500                    
72. Midland Dow, 1304, 7-1, 85.036                                          
73. Farmington Hills Harrison, 1300, 7-1, 93.750                   
74. South Lyon, 1277, 6-2, 82.250                                               
75. Swartz Creek, 1277, 4-4, 52.768                                           
76. Birmingham Groves, 1274, 7-1, 85.875                             
77. Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills ^, 1231, 5-3, 52.500                              
78. Fenton, 1188, 8-0, 101.000                                                    
79. Grand Rapids Northview, 1182, 4-4, 49.750                    
80. Mattawan, 1176, 4-4, 45.625                                                
81. Warren Woods Tower, 1170, 6-2, 62.750                         
82. Muskegon Reeths-Puffer, 1151, 7-1, 92.500                  
83. Lowell, 1146, 8-0, 118.000                                                      
84. Taylor Truman, 1131, 6-2, 74.500                                        
85. East Lansing, 1124, 4-4, 52.750                                             
86. Holly, 1124, 4-4, 49.375                                                           
87. Muskegon, 1118, 7-1, 97.875                                                
88. Lapeer East, 1113, 4-4, 50.625                                              
89. Marquette *, 1110, 5-2, 73.286                                           
90. Detroit East English ^, 1109, 5-3, 59.750                           
91. Detroit Cody ^, 1106, 5-3, 57.250                                        
92. Allen Park, 1103, 6-2, 76.625                                 
93. Detroit Renaissance ^, 1097, 5-3, 53.268                         
94. Detroit Mumford, 1090, 6-2, 72.732                  
95. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern, 1079, 6-2, 71.250               
96. St. Johns, 1079, 4-4, 47.625                                   
97. Zeeland East ^, 1071, 5-3, 67.125                                        
98. Lapeer West, 1063, 7-1, 91.375                                            
99. Redford Thurston ^, 1063, 5-3, 65.375                              
100. Auburn Hills Avondale, 1055, 4-4, 42.375                      
101. Byron Center, 1039, 6-2, 68.750                                        
102. Mt. Pleasant, 1033, 7-1, 92.875                                         
103. Riverview, 993, 6-2, 66.625                                 
104. St. Joseph, 986, 7-1, 88.875                                 
105. Orchard Lake St. Mary's, 980, 4-4, 54.625                      
106. Petoskey ^, 965, 5-3, 62.000           &a