Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Ishpeming 'Makes Way' to MHSAA Title
November 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
DETROIT – When Ishpeming coach Jeff Olson watched film this week of Saturday opponent Detroit Loyola, he saw a team that continuously “demoralized” its opponents.
By midway through the second quarter of the MHSAA Division 7 Final, his players understood what he meant.
Senior Brad Wootke, easily the Hematites’ biggest player, joked after about getting knocked around by the multiple more sizable Bulldogs across the line. Junior quarterback Alex Briones rolled his eyes into his head describing a blast he withstood.
But it would’ve taken more than that to knock Ishpeming off its path to an MHSAA football title. As Olson also explained, “They guys made their own way, and they made it all year.”
The Hematites doled out plenty of physicality and turned away a few late rushes to hang on to a 20-14 Division 7 championship win at Ford Field.
“First of all, we’re a hard-nosed football team. We don’t take anyone prisoners. We’re going to fight all we can,” Briones said. “They’re big, but we just didn’t let them dominate us.”
The championship was Ishpeming’s first since 1979, and came two seasons after the team fell 28-26 to Hudson in a 2010 Final. The Hematites finished this fall 13-1.
Loyola, 13-0 entering the day, was playing in its first MHSAA championship game and could be back again soon – the Bulldogs had only five seniors this fall.
But Loyola also was ranked No. 1 heading into these playoffs, featured the second-leading scorer in MHSAA single-season history in senior running back Keymonn’e Gabriel, and had eight players – to Ishepming’s one – weighing in between 250 and 290 pounds.
The No. 4-ranked Hematites were underdogs. And they knew it. But they obviously didn't believe it.
“Our coach he said it best before the game when we were at our school. He said the game’s going to be won or lost on the first smack, the first hit,” Gabriel said. “I guess we were just on the receiving end. We didn't come out strong like we were supposed to, and we just came up a little bit short.”
Although Loyola led at halftime, that advantage was slim – only 8-6. The Bulldogs had outgained the Hematites, but only 153-80. Seven minutes into the second half, Ishpeming appeared to change the tide with senior Eric Kostreva’s second touchdown run. But Loyola turned it back when Gabriel scored on a 20-yard run on the final play of the third quarter to make the score 14-12.
In the end, it would come down to a few close plays, all coming on fourth down. Ishpeming made good on both of its fourth-down attempts. Loyola was successful on four of five – but that one miss might have eventually been the decider.
Loyola faced fourth-and-seven with 7:47 to play and trailing 20-14, when Gabriel ran on a punt fake for 38 yards to Ishpeming’s 17-yard line. But four plays later, on fourth-and-one, Gabriel was hung up for no gain by the waiting Briones, who had senior R.J. Poirier right behind providing support.
Then it was Ishpeming’s turn to convert instead. Its first fourth-down make set up a third-quarter touchdown. That wasn't the case this time. But making good on a fourth-and-one try from its own 18 – after twice trying to draw Loyola off-side and calling two timeouts – allowed the Hematites to drain two more minutes off the clock before junior Tyler Windahl’s 44-yard punt pinned the Bulldogs on their 28 with 1:14 to play.
Loyola made one more first down, but ended the game on its 41-yard line.
“I’m surprised I didn't want to go for it right off the bat. When we called timeout, I said we’re going to punt it, and I think half of you guys (his players) said, ‘Nope, we’re going for it,’” Olson said. “And when I thought about it, we always go for it on fourth and one. But if somebody offers me fourth and three inches for a state championship, I’m going for it.
“We weren't going to punt it away and hope it happened. We wanted to make it happen.”
Gabriel finished with 21 carries for 129 yards and a touchdown rushing, and also caught four passes for 52 yards and a score. That gave him 326 points this season – second-most in MHSAA history, and final unofficial rushing numbers of 145 carries, 2,516 yards and 36 scores. The yards rank 20th in MHSAA history for one season, and the rushing touchdowns are 11th.
He did so running in part behind junior tackles Malik McDowell (6-foot-7, 290 pounds) and Kajohn Armstrong (6-5, 275), and Loyola certainly felt the impact Saturday when Armstrong had to leave the game early with an injury.
“Our seniors are the reason we’re here; they were our leaders although there were only five of them. But now it’s time for the other group to step up,” Loyola coach John Callahan said. “We had a lot of sophomores playing, a lot of freshman playing. I’m pretty sure I know what we did and what we didn't do, and we've got all offseason to work on and correct, and next season, to start over again.”
Kostreva ran 20 times for 182 yards and all three Ishpeming touchdowns, and also had 16 tackles. He’s one of 12 seniors who helped guide the program through a tough start to the fall after Olson’s son, Daniel, was found after committing suicide in July.
Jeff Olson said after this game wasn't about him, but Briones was quick to point out that the players certainly wanted to win in part for their coach and the memory of their former teammate.
“I didn't know how this year would go. But I know once I got on the football field, it was a relief for me,” Olson said. “It was where I really felt comfortable. It’s because of these guys right here. They made it comfortable for me.”
Click for full statistics and to watch a replay of the game. See below for the full press conference.
PHOTOS: (Top) Ishpeming running back Eric Kostreva (11) races down the sideline as Detroit Loyola's Anthony Frierson gives chase Saturday. (Middle) The Hematites celebrate their first MHSAA championship since 1979. (Click for more from Terry McNamara Photography.)