Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Drive for Detroit: District Finals in Review

November 5, 2012

Two down. Two to go.

The postseason portion of this fall's Drive for Detroit is halfway complete. And while a number of contenders have traveled this far many times before, some of the most captivating moments are being created by teams make this leg of the journey for the first time.

For example, River Rouge. The Panthers have one of the strongest basketball traditions in MHSAA history. But before this fall, they'd never won nine football games, much less 11, in one season.

Yet, here they sit, 11-0, with their first District title thanks to a 44-22 win over Almont – an 11-game winner a season ago.

See below for a number of other notable results from this weekend's District Finals, plus a thought on all four 8-player Regional championship games. And click for the rest of last week's scores plus updated  schedules as the drive gears up for the third round.

Division 1

Plymouth 20, Livonia Churchill 14

Churchill (10-1) entered the postseason with the highest playoff point average in Division 1, with Plymouth (9-2) tied for 15th.  But the Wildcats locked down a Chargers offense that had averaged 44 points per game and extended their sixth-straight playoff run another week. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.

Also noted:

Rockford 35, Holland West Ottawa 28 – The Panthers (8-3) gave the Rams a close call for the second time this season, after Rockford (9-2) won by only 10 in their first meeting Sept. 28.

Lake Orion 10, Utica Eisenhower 7 – The Dragons (10-1) scored with just under two minutes to play after trailing Eisenhower (8-3) nearly the entire game.

Division 2

Muskegon 15, Lowell 13

This District Final between two of Michigan's most celebrated powers came down to redemption for what might be the happiest kicker in the state this week. Adrian Briseno missed an extra point and had another blocked, but hit a 27-yard field goal with under two minutes to play to push his Big Reds (10-1) past the Red Arrows (8-3). Click to read more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Also noted:

Caledonia 23, East Lansing 22 (OT) – After seeing a potential game-winning field blocked late, the Fighting Scots (8-3) outlasted the Trojans (7-4) for their first District title since 2006.

Wyandotte Roosevelt 9, Taylor Truman 0 – The Bears (10-1) lost a three-way tie-breaker to both Brownstown-Woodhaven and Taylor Truman (9-2) for home-field advantage during this District, but beat both Downriver League foes en route to the title.

Division 3

Grand Rapids Christian 68, Zeeland West 44

The Eagles (10-1) have put up massive point totals all season – only once have they failed to score at least 34. But Grand Rapids Christian saved its season-high to offset Zeeland West, which scored at least 38 points in all but one game but couldn’t keep pace this time. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted:

DeWitt 45, Linden 44 (6 OT) – The Panthers (9-2) have now used a combined seven overtimes to defeat two of the top four from the Flint Metro Conference, the co-champ Eagles (9-2) and Lapeer West.

Tecumseh 26, Milan 6 – After four straight games decided by three points or fewer, the Indians (9-2) broke one open and ended a perfect season for Milan (10-1).

Division 4

Grosse Ile 70, Dearborn Heights Robichaud 51

One Twitter report had the third quarter of this game lasting nearly an hour. These teams combined for 121 points, good for eighth-most in MHSAA 11-player history for games during which the losing team scored at least 40 (although the record book has not been updated to include all games from this season). At the end, Grosse Ile (10-1) had 10 wins for the second straight season, and Robichaud (9-2) finished its best season since 2007. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.

Also noted:

Grand Rapids South Christian 42, Dowagiac 23 – The Sailors (8-3) won their first District title since 2005 by handing the Chieftains (10-1) their first and only loss of the season.

Comstock Park 16, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 7 – This was the third playoff meeting between these two over the last eight seasons, and first win of the three for the Panthers (10-1); the loss was the first and only this fall for GRCC (10-1).

Division 5

Newaygo 30, Reed City 29

What a fall it’s been for the Lions. At 9-2, they’ve tied the school record for wins set in 1994. And they handed Reed City (10-1) its first and only loss to claim their first District title since that season. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted:

Grand Rapids West Catholic 13, Muskegon Oakridge 6 – This is only a slightly-lesser upset than the above because although Oakridge entered 10-0, West Catholic (8-3) has made at least the Semifinals the last two seasons.

Flint Powers 34, Frankenmuth 0 – These two both entered 10-0, but reigning champion Powers (11-0) continues to look like a heavy favorite to finish 14-0.

Division 6

Constantine 40, Schoolcraft 27

The Eagles (10-1) had fended off their share of challengers on the way to a 10-0 start, with five wins by 12 points or fewer. The first team to get that close was Constantine all the way back in Week 2. Schoolcraft won that game 42-32, but the reigning runner-up Falcons (9-2) forced the Eagles to play catch-up most of Friday. Click to read more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Also noted:

Montrose 33, Millington 28 – The Rams (10-1) keep surviving, with this win over the Cardinals (9-2) their third straight by five points or fewer.

Shelby 26, Maple City Glen Lake 0 – Experience gained from a tough league slate continues to show through for the Tigers (9-2), who ended the best season since 2001 for Glen Lake (9-2).

Division 7

Ishpeming 32, Mancelona 0

Aside from a Week 7 loss to Negaunee, the Hematites (10-1) have thoroughly dominated the rest of their competition this fall. Mancelona, coming in 10-0, looked to be one of the toughest obstacles. But for the second time in three seasons, Ishpeming ended the Ironmen’s season – and in the process won its fourth straight District title. Click to read more from Marquette Mining Journal.

Also noted:

Decatur 34, Lawton 3 – The Raiders (9-2) previously lost to Lawton 38-7 on the first night of Southwestern Athletic Conference South play; Lawton (9-2) went on to split the league title, but Decatur owns the District championship.

Saginaw Nouvel 31, Reese 16 – The reigning champion Panthers (9-2) live on thanks to their best win of a difficult run; Nouvel handed the Rockets (10-1) their lone loss.

Division 8

Mendon 28, Climax-Scotts 6

These two have met in the playoffs four times over the last decade – which makes sense as they are two of the winningest small-school programs in the state during that time. But Mendon has won all four postseason meetings, and with this victory extended its winning streak to 25 including last season’s championship game. Click to read more from the Sturgis Journal.

Also noted:

Harbor Beach 56, New Lothrop 20 – The Pirates (10-1) moved to 21-2 over the last two seasons, while handing New Lothrop its first loss; the Hornets finished 10-1 and are 32-3 over the last three years.

Beal City 28, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 21 – They play in different leagues, but these rivals make a point of facing off each season; the Aggies (11-0) also beat the Irish (9-2) on opening night, 38-19, and own four straight over their familiar foes.

8-player (Regionals)

Rapid River 22, Cedarville 14

A lot can change in five weeks. See Rapid River football, 2012. On Sept. 28, Cedarville (10-1) beat the Rockets 72-12 in what eventually became a deciding game for the Bridge Alliance 8-Man Football League title. But the reigning MHSAA runner-up made up plenty of ground to win its second-straight Regional title and improve to 9-2. Click to read more from RRNSports.com.

Also noted:

Bellaire 48, Owendale-Gagetown 0 – After falling in last season’s Regional Final, the Eagles (8-3) left no doubt this time in ending the Bulldogs’ run at 8-3.

Deckerville 50, Kinde-North Huron 0 – The Eagles (10-1) have dominated in this first season in the 8-player division; this was their second win this fall over North Huron (6-5).

Portland St. Patrick 34, Battle Creek St. Philip 28 – The Shamrocks (11-0) beat the Tigers (7-4) for the third time and second straight by seven or fewer points.

PHOTO: Birmingham Brother Rice junior running back Brian Walker surges ahead during the Warriors' 38-6 win over Oxford in Division 2. (Click to see more, plus photos from Detroit Country Day/Pontiac Notre Dame Prep and Plymouth/Churchill at Terry McNamara Photography.)