Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Lansing Catholic Comes Back to Claim D5
November 30, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
DETROIT – Zach Gillespie was just part of what was out of rhythm for Lansing Catholic during the first half of Saturday’s Division 5 Final against Almont.
The senior quarterback headed into the break 2-of-6 passing for 16 yards with an interception, and had eight carries for nine yards – not at all characteristic for a standout who had thrown for nearly 2,500 yards and run for more than 550 through his first 13 games this season.
But somehow, the Cougars and Raiders were tied. And that meant Lansing Catholic was in position to win.
Gillespie stormed back with a big second half, the offense meeting halfway a defense that had kept the Cougars in the game, and the lessons of comebacks earlier this season made the difference in Lansing Catholic finishing a 31-17 win over Almont to earn its first Finals championship since 1985.
“I probably shouldn’t say that with these guys here, but I don’t think this team is the most talented team from top to bottom that we’ve ever had,” said Cougars coach Jim Ahern, who also brought Lansing Catholic to Ford Field in 2011 and 2014. “But I’ll tell ya, I don’t think I’ve had a team that has more chemistry and more heart than this group of kids did. We’ve been behind in a lot of games this year and they never quit, and I think that’s why.”
They call it a “21-7 mentality” and it was born from a loss this season, the sixth-straight over four seasons to rival Portland.
The Cougars (13-1) trailed in that Week 5 matchup 21-7 at halftime, and lightning forced the second half to be played the next day. Lansing Catholic came back to make the final score 21-20 – but even in defeat, the message hit home that the team can change the course of a game over the final two quarters. (And Lansing Catholic went on to defeat Portland 21-0 in the District Final.)
“We write it on the board at halftime – 21-7 mentality in the second half – and I think that was a big turning point coming out firing that game,” Cougars senior linebacker Sam Edwards said. “We’ve just carried that with us since, and it’s made us better.”
This time, as in many before, Gillespie led the way. He found his footing and touch after the break, completing 9-of-17 passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns over the final two quarters and running for two scores as well.
Almont carried a 17-7 lead into the final two minutes of the third quarter. But Lansing Catholic scored 24 unanswered points to finish the game, with Gillespie shutting the door with a four-yard scoring run with 1:39 to play.
That followed touchdown passes of seven yards to senior Vince Salquist and 23 to senior Mitch Raphael, a soccer player last year who showed some delicate footwork getting one down before exiting the side of the end zone. Raphael’s score put the Cougars ahead 24-17 with 3:41 to play.
“We just knew. We knew we could come out and score with anyone,” Gillespie said. “We knew we had a couple three-and-outs, and it wasn’t going our way. We kinda just had all gas, no brakes, and weren’t just satisfied with going up seven there. We wanted to score again.
“I don’t think I could’ve had a worse first half. Especially in the state championship game, I went in at halftime and I was pretty down on myself. I (restored) the confidence in myself that I can make the throws, and I’ve got great playmakers that are going to catch it. Our line blocked pretty good in the second half … and everyone just got open for me and I was able to deliver.”
Almont (13-1) was making its first trip to the Finals for football, concluding an impressive run that saw it win on the road three of the first four weeks of the playoffs.
But the first half Saturday was frustrating, as the Raiders ended two drives throwing interceptions and a third giving up a fumble. The only first-half possession that didn’t end in a turnover finished with a touchdown.
Almont then scored on a field goal and touchdown on the first two possessions of the second half. But the Raiders threw another interception and fumbled the ball away again on the next two, allowing Lansing Catholic opportunities to catch up.
Senior Jack Paupert and junior Michael Lulgjuraj scored those Almont touchdowns, and Paupert ran 18 times for a team-high 78 yards. Senior Colby Schapman caught five passes for 80 yards. Senior Ryan Miller booted a 31-yard field goal to round out the team’s scoring.
Senior linebacker Jacob Hausmann with seven tackles led a defense that again this season measured up with the state’s best. The Raiders gave up just 11.6 points per game, holding teams below 15 per game for the sixth time in seven seasons. Lansing Catholic’s 31 points were the most surrendered by the Raiders since the 2017 playoffs.
“The backbone of our team is our defense. Coach (Ritchie) Feys does an excellent job preparing these guys, and these guys execut(e) the game plan,” Almont coach James Leusby said. “When we came out (after halftime) we were 0-0 ballgame, and we were going after it.”
Sophomore Alex Watters caught five passes for 107 yards for Lansing Catholic as Gillespie finished with 187 total through the air. Edwards had 19 tackles, recovered both fumbles and snagged an interception, and senior Daniel Magaway had 10 tackles as the Cougars locked down an offense that averaged 39.5 points this fall. Ahern directed the credit to assistants Kelly Carrier, Mike Doran and Pat Barner, who handle all of the defensive play-calling and made adjustments at halftime to slow down Almont’s outside running attack.
Ahern, meanwhile, claimed his first championship five decades after he began his head coaching career at Gobles in 1969. He spent more than three decades at Ithaca and came back from Florida in 2009 to take over at Lansing Catholic – going over 300 career wins this season and moving up to 11th on the in-state career list with a 301-152-6 record while coaching at those three Michigan high schools.
“When you get here and you don’t win, you don’t realize until I think months after that you had a great season. This is definitely a different feeling,” Ahern said.
“The message all week was let’s get him to 301,” Edwards said. “It means the world to me to be able to put on the jersey and play for this guy. It’s kinda bittersweet that I won’t get to do it again, but to end it on a high – there’s no one that deserves this more than this guy right here.”
PHOTOS: (Top) Lansing Catholic quarterback Zach Gillespie follows his blockers during Saturday’s Division 5 Final. (Middle) Mitch Raphael (7) helps bring down Almont’s Michael Lulgjuraj.