Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Reading Reaches Next Level with Repeat

November 29, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
 

DETROIT – An arduous playoff road over the last five weeks pushed Reading up against some of the most established football programs in Michigan high school history.

Pre-District opponent Mendon is tied for 10th with 12 MHSAA Finals football titles. Semifinal foe Fowler has won seven championships. Those two, Cassopolis and Adrian Lenawee Christian all were state-ranked during the regular season. Friday’s championship game opponent Beal City was not, but is tied for the most playoff appearances in MHSAA history with 35 over the 45-year history of the tournament.

Reading made its 25th playoff appearance this fall, an impressive feat on its own. But by winning a second straight Division 8 championship – after last year’s first in school history – the Rangers launched their program into that group of the most revered. 

They concluded this chapter with a 33-6 win over the Aggies on Friday at Ford Field, extending an incredible run while allowing a star-studded senior class to leave its personal imprint on what Reading has accomplished. 

“I really think we left a mark in the playoff book,” Rangers senior Hunter Midtgard said. “Just because we came through last year, we had a really good team, and then we came through this year and we wanted to prove a point that this was our team and we wanted to leave a legacy. We just wanted to finish the job.” 

Reading finished this fall 13-1, winning 13 straight after a 14-0 opening loss to Pewamo-Westphalia, which will play Saturday for a third Division 7 title in four years. The Rangers are 27-1 over the last two seasons.

Not that the senior class needed motivation after making a major contribution to last season’s title run. But coach Rick Bailey emphasized that those seniors shouldn’t feel like reigning champions, and instead pursue making their own impact – and the P-W loss threw kindling on that message.

“We worked hard over the summer, but that first loss … kinda lit a fire in us and told us what it took to make it back here, so we really wanted it,” Reading senior lineman Nick Affholter said.

“Also, I thought it was great, because it was our team this year,” said senior linebacker/tight end – and Nick’s twin – Ben Affholter. “We got to be seniors and we got to be leaders, and that drove us to win it as our team.”

Friday’s matchup with the Aggies (12-2) was set up to be strength on strength – especially considering the two starting quarterbacks together combined for only about 1,500 yards passing this fall.

The game stayed within a score until midway through the third quarter, when Reading began to show it was stronger in the long run.

The Rangers scored the final 19 points, all on runs, and outgained Beal City on the ground 260-42. Reading also had 10.5 tackles for loss, with Ben Affholter leading with 4.5.

Beal City senior quarterback Jack Schafer was able to counter with 115 yards and a touchdown passing, completing five of nine attempts. But Rangers junior Porter Mauk also made the most of his six attempts, connecting on scoring passes for his team’s first two touchdowns.

“I think their up front gave us fits,” Beal City coach Brad Gross said. “Number 44 in the middle (Ben Affholter) obviously was stunting, and we didn’t do a very good job of picking him up. But I’m sure that kid is an all-state football player. … They’re big, bigger than we are, and also a lot faster than you think they are.”

Reading finished the season having given up 103 points, or 7.4 per game. Lenawee Christian (21) was the only team to score more than 18. Ben Affholter finished with 10 tackles total Friday, and brother Nick had eight. The Rangers recovered two fumbles and snagged an interception.

Senior Elijah Strine ran for 73 yards and a touchdown and Midtgard added 68 yards and a score on the ground and a 40-yard touchdown reception. Senior Jayson Scoville caught an 18-yard touchdown pass to open the scoring with 3:21 left in the first quarter. Sophomore Matthew Stewart added a 12-yard touchdown run with 13 seconds to play.

Schafer connected with junior T.J. Maxon on a 56-yard touchdown pass two minutes into the second quarter for Beal City’s lone points. Senior linebacker Seth Schafer had 14 tackles and junior linebacker Ethan Locke had 10. 

The Aggies made their eighth appearance in an MHSAA Final, and first since 2013. They had finished below .500 the last two seasons, including 2-7 a year ago, before mounting arguably the strongest comeback in the state this fall. 

“I think they fit right in there with the best (in school history),” said Gross, who quarterbacked the 1994 team to the Class D title. “I can’t ask for anything more from these guys, starting from last year at the end of the year. It didn’t start in June; it started last year, in November. These kids made a commitment to be there and get things done, and that’s what they did.”

Click for the full box score.

PHOTOS: (Top) Reading’s Roger Hill rushes into Beal City’s defense Saturday at Ford Field. (Middle) The Rangers’ Elijah Strine (30) stretches into the end zone just ahead of Beal City’s Logan Chilman.