Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Leader Re-Energizes Past Power Stevenson

By Tom Markowski
Special for Second Half

November 22, 2019

Regardless of how one looks at it, Justin Newcomb is the right person for the right job at the right time.

Newcomb, 33, is one of the youngest head football coaches in the Detroit area, and he’s causing a stir. He’s in his second season at Sterling Heights Stevenson and the person most responsible for the Titans playing in an MHSAA Division 1 Semifinal on Saturday for the first time in a decade.

Stevenson (8-4), as an additional playoff qualifier, has played the underdog role to a T throughout the playoffs. There’s an advantage to that role, and Stevenson will take it up again when it takes on Davison (10-2) at Troy Athens at 1 p.m.

Once a football power, Stevenson fell back to the middle of the pack in the highly competitive Macomb Area Conference Red from 2010-18. Four times previously the program had reached an MHSAA Final, the last in 2009 when the Titans lost to Detroit Catholic Central, 31-21, in the Division 1 title game.

That was Hall of Fame coach Rick Bye’s 35th and final season at Stevenson. Since then, the Titans qualified for the playoffs three times and didn’t win a playoff game. That is, until this season.

“You’ve got goals,” Newcomb said. “You set goals at the start (of the season), and you just want to get the most out of (your) team.”

When Newcomb took over, the program had won just three games over the previous two seasons. The Titans were 4-5 overall in 2018, and just 1-4 in the MAC Red, which was won by eventual Division 1 champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley. The average margin of defeat in those four league losses was 25.5 points.

“We took our lumps (in the MAC Red),” Newcomb said. “The challenge was getting kids to come out. When we first came in there was some interest lost. We had to beg some to come out. Now that we’re winning, kids are saying they want to come out.”

Despite his young age, Newcomb has coached high school football for 14 seasons. He started as an assistant under Mike Powell at Warren Cousino in 2006 when Newcomb was a student at Wayne State University. For 10 seasons he was the head varsity baseball coach at Cousino, but he gave that up when he took over for Powell as Cousino’s head football coach in 2017.  

Though Newcomb finds himself in the right position at Stevenson, don’t view Stevenson’s sudden success as luck. Newcomb possesses an insatiable appetite for knowledge. If there’s a clinic to attend, you’ll likely find Newcomb there. And his ego doesn’t prevent him from talking to more experienced coaches to pry loose valuable information. Most often you’ll find Bye on the Stevenson sideline, not as an assistant but someone there whom Newcomb can confide in.

“Justin is positive and energetic,” Bye said. “He’s definitely not a guy who thinks he knows it all. He’s bought into everything, the Stevenson history, everything. He’s up on technology, much more so than I ever was. And he doesn’t let little things bother him. His practices have a tempo, and there’s little time wasted.”

Not lost in Newcomb’s system is his military background. After graduating from Wayne State with a teaching degree, he joined the U.S. Army Reserve in 2011. He continues to serve today in the Individual Ready Reserve (IRR).

“It has a lot to do with the way we coach,” Newcomb said of his military experience. “(Coaching) is a lot more than just what goes on on the field. There’s (teaching) leadership roles and being responsible. In our culture, it’s all about winning. It’s all about playing time. The kids get caught up in that.

“Their attitudes have changed. We had to address the group as a whole. We had guys that first year that said that they play linebacker, and that’s it. Others came in saying they just play one way. That’s not how we do it. You’re here to help the team. Now the kids are doing whatever we need them to.”

A prime example is junior Giovanni El-Hadi. A college prospect (committed to University of Michigan), El-Hadi had been told, by some outside of the program, that he was an offensive lineman and wouldn’t play defense. This season El-Hadi is starting on defense for the first time and said earlier this fall that his time spent on the defensive side has helped improve his speed.

Another two-way starter on the line is senior Sal Madonna. Madonna is a two-year starter, and he and his brother, sophomore Biagio Madonna, are the sons of assistant coach Carmine Madonna – who played for Bye during the late 1990s.

“For me, I’ve been a part of Stevenson football for a long time,” Sal Madonna said. “Last year’s team wasn’t as connected as much. This year we bonded together. We trusted Coach Newcomb’s style. Even last year as juniors (we knew) to be successful, we had to buy in. We didn’t have the same mindset last year. We’re playing with a lot more confidence now.

“This means a lot to me. I remember being in the stands (at Troy Athens) when Jason Fracassa threw a touchdown pass in the (2009) Semifinals. Just like this team, that team never gave up.”

This team rebounded from a 2-3 start with a 13-7 comeback victory over Utica in Week 6. That game, more than others, was the turning point of the Titans’ season. Newcomb made a switch at quarterback, moving Biagio Madonna from linebacker and switching fellow sophomore Jordan Ramsey from quarterback to slot receiver and running back. With Ramsey, Newcomb was running a zone read offense. With Madonna, Stevenson is running an option attack.

In the victory over Utica, Stevenson used a trick play to score the winning touchdown. Last week in the 9-7 Regional Final victory over Detroit Cass Tech, the Titans had a goal-line stand in the first half and scored the winning touchdown on a double pass. Madonna threw to Dylan Kleinedler, who threw to Ramsey for a touchdown early in the second half. A Ramsey interception ended the game with 14 seconds left.

The previous week against Macomb Dakota, Newcomb decided not to go for the tying field goal from 40 yards out, and instead called on Madonna to throw the winning touchdown pass to Ramsey with a minute to play. Stevenson won 38-35 against a team it had lost to, 40-14, during the regular season and before Newcomb had made the quarterback switch.

“We’ve been fortunate the last few weeks with trick plays,” Newcomb said. “(But) getting here is a testament on just how hard these kids have worked.”

Tom Markowski is a correspondent for the State Champs! Sports Network and previously directed its web coverage. He also covered primarily high school sports for the The Detroit News from 1984-2014, focusing on the Detroit area and contributing to statewide coverage of football and basketball. Contact him at [email protected] with story ideas for Oakland, Macomb and Wayne counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Sterling Heights Stevenson players hoist their Division 1 Regional championship trophy after defeating Detroit Cass Tech last week. (Middle) Jordan Ramsey (5) breaks into the open against the Technicians. (Photos courtesy of the Stevenson football program.)