Logo

Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Drive for Detroit: Week 5 in Review

September 30, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

In case you missed it: The rain showed up again this weekend, turning the Week 5 football schedule into a two-day trudge for about 200 teams across Michigan.

But that’s not what we’ll remember most.

The midpoint of this regular season was filled with great rivalry matchups, many decided by only a few points and one that finished with a 3-2 score. We also saw marathons that had nothing to do with thunderstorms – like Livonia Franklin navigating three overtimes to get past rival Churchill and West Bloomfield needing a fourth to edge Lake Orion.

All of it served to set up what’s next to come – a raft of teams clinching league championships over the final month, and a number of teams this week joining our first playoff qualifiers of 2019: Berrien Springs Farmington, Flint Hamady and Jackson Lumen Christi.

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 23, Saginaw Swan Valley 20 For the second straight week the Eagles (5-0) sent another Tri-Valley Conference East co-leader into second place, this time Swan Valley with a win that took two days to complete. The Eagles now sit alone atop the East standings with Freeland, Swan Valley (3-2) and this week’s opponent Essexville Garber all tied for second with one league loss. Click for more from the Saginaw News and see below for highlights from WJRT.

Watch list Harbor Beach 29, Ubly 14 The Pirates (5-0) pulled within a win of claiming a piece of the Greater Thumb Conference East title after sharing it last season and winning it outright in 2017. Harbor Beach is putting up numbers like its MHSAA title contending days of last season and earlier this decade, outscoring opponents by a combined 226-31. Ubly (4-1) hadn’t given up more than 19 in a game until this one and was averaging 40.5 ppg.

Remember this one Goodrich 32, Ortonville Brandon 26 The Martians (4-1) set up a title-deciding matchup with Lake Fenton this week in the Flint Metro League “Lower” division by handing Ortonville Brandon (4-1) its first defeat. Brandon shared last year’s Metro title when the league was still unified for football before adding schools (including Goodrich) and splitting into divisions for this fall.

More shoutouts Fenton 35, Flint Kearsley 13 The Tigers have emerged as the lone first-place team in the Metro League “Upper” after sending Kearsley (4-1) into a tie for second with Linden and Flushing, Fenton’s opponents over the next two weeks, respectively. Saginaw Heritage 50, Midland Dow 15 The Hawks (3-2) just missed last season making the playoffs for the first time since 2007, but breaking a decade-long losing streak to Dow (2-3) might be the difference-maker this time.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER West Bloomfield 59, Lake Orion 52 (4OT) The Oakland Activities Association Red has three teams at 4-1 midway through the season, and these are two of them after West Bloomfield prevailed in a matchup that tied for ninth highest-scoring overtime game in MHSAA history. The Lakers moved into first place alone in the league standings after coming back from a 10-point halftime deficit and with quarterback CJ Harris throwing for more than 200 yards and running for more than 190. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Watch list Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 27, Macomb Dakota 21 The Big Reds (5-0) won their fifth straight over rival Dakota (3-2) and hold the top spot alone in the Macomb Area Conference Red as they look to continue their 19-game winning streak.

Remember this one Detroit Catholic Central 7, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 3 The Detroit Catholic League Central season is only a week old for DCC and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s, but those teams now have a one-game lead with the Shamrocks (3-2) handing Rice (4-1) its first defeat and the Eaglets edging Warren De La Salle Collegiate 16-14.

More shoutouts Brownstown Woodhaven 21, Allen Park 20 The Warriors (5-0) shared the Downriver League title last season despite losing to eventual third-place Allen Park (3-2), and now sit atop the league alone by avenging that defeat. Grosse Pointe South 35, Port Huron 0 Since falling Week 1 to Birmingham Groves, South (4-1) hasn’t lost – or given up a point – and handed Port Huron (4-1) its first defeat this week.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Portland 21, Lansing Catholic 20 The Raiders (5-0) extended their Capital Area Activities Conference White winning streak to 24 in part by blocking an extra point during the final minutes that would’ve tied this game with the rival Cougars (4-1). The win also ran Portland’s streak in the series to five – something to keep in mind later as these two have met again in the playoffs the last two seasons. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.   

Watch list East Lansing 21, DeWitt 2 The Trojans (4-1) followed up their impressive Week 4 win over Portage Northern with another that could eventually earn them a league title. DeWitt (3-2) was the reigning CAAC Blue champ and downed East Lansing 37-0 last season. But the Trojans now sit alone atop the standings after just two league games, having ended a DeWitt league winning streak that stretched back to 2008 and across the Panthers’ time in the CAAC Blue, Red and Gold.

Remember this one Clare 3, Sanford Meridian 2 It’s a good guess those involved will not soon forget being part of such a low-scoring game that also meant a ton in the Jack Pine Conference standings. Clare (5-0) now sits tied with Beaverton for first place after stopping two drives by Meridian (4-1) deep into Pioneers territory during the final 10 minutes.

More shoutouts Mason 46, St. Johns 7 The Bulldogs are 5-0 for the first time since 2009 and set up a CAAC Red decider this week against Fowlerville by shutting down the Redwings (3-2). Breckenridge 38, Merrill 0 Since falling to Beaverton in Week 1, Breckenridge also is unbeaten and has outscored its last four opponents by a combined 178-8. Merrill (3-2) was averaging 32 ppg entering the weekend.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Charlevoix 37, Frankfort 15 With four wins this season, Charlevoix (4-1) has equaled their totals from the last two years combined. This week’s victory over Frankfort (2-3) was the first since 2014 and kept the Red Rayders tied for first in the Northern Michigan Football League Leaders title race with Week 8 opponent Maple City Glen Lake. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle. 

Watch list Johannesburg-Lewiston 26, Tawas 14 The Cardinals (5-0) earned arguably the best win of a fast start and got some final prep for back-to-back games with Charlevoix and NMFL Legacy leader Harbor Springs. Tawas (3-2), playing eight games, must win two of the next three to guarantee a return to the playoffs.

Remember this one Houghton Lake 34, Lake City 14 The Bobcats (3-2) fell to Highland Conference leader Beat City in their Week 2 league opener, but kept pace in second place by getting past the Trojans (2-3).

More shoutouts Cadillac 26, Lake Odessa Lakewood 6 Like Charlevoix discussed above, Cadillac (3-2) has won as many games this fall as the last two combined and has a chance to make a run at a playoff spot. Mancelona 46, Elk Rapids 6 The Ironmen (3-2) are in position to make a run at their best finish and first playoff appearance since 2014.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Jackson Lumen Christi 21, Marshall 14 The Titans (5-0) took a big step toward wrapping up the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title, bumping the Redhawks (4-1) out of a tie for first and with their final three league opponents a combined 4-11. Marshall kept pace for most of the game, with Lumen scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter before the teams held each other scoreless during the fourth.

Watch list Chelsea 13, Jackson 0 The Bulldogs (5-0) drew a step closer to clinching the Southeastern Conference White title by shutting out the reigning champion Vikings (3-2), which won the 2018 meeting 29-20. Chelsea’s final three league opponents are a combined 2-13.

Remember this one Hillsdale 10, Hudson 6 The Hornets (5-0) remain tied with Blissfield atop the Lenawee County Athletic Association standings after downing what has to be one of the state’s top 2-3 teams in Hudson, which has lost those games by a combined 32 points to teams a combined 13-2 this fall.

More shoutouts Pinckney 40, Ypsilanti Lincoln 14 The Pirates avenged last season’s loss to Lincoln to move to 4-1, eclipsing last year’s three victories while sending the Railsplitters to 2-3. Adrian Lenawee Christian 49, Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 8 Lenawee Christian (4-1) handed NorthPointe (4-1) its first defeat, and aside from a Week 2 loss to Sand Creek has outscored its other four opponents by a combined 201-8.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Battle Creek Lakeview 35, Kalamazoo Central 7 The Spartans (5-0) clinched a share of the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference East title, avenging last season’s 21-13 loss to last season’s league champion Kalamazoo Central (2-3). Lakeview can finish an outright title run Week 8 against Kalamazoo Loy Norrix. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Watch list Portage Central 14, Stevensville Lakeshore 13 Both are chasing co-leaders Portage Northern and St. Joseph in the SMAC West and may not catch them. But both also are trying to extend playoff streaks – Central has made the postseason seven straight, and Lakeshore must win out to guarantee running their streak to 22 seasons. The Lancers are tied with Lumen Christi for the third-longest active playoff streak and sixth longest all-time.  

Remember this one Schoolcraft 67, Delton Kellogg 14 The Eagles (5-0) are averaging nearly 60 points per game and turned up the offense to start the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley season against a playoff regular the last few seasons in Delton (3-2).

More shoutouts Benton Harbor 28, Battle Creek Central 21 After three straight playoff seasons and a run of state and national recognition, Benton Harbor fell to 3-5 last fall – but has bounced back and improved to 3-2 with this win. Cassopolis 33, Decatur 11 The Rangers (5-0) gave up their first points of the season, but against a Decatur team that despite falling to 2-3 has a solid chance to earn its seventh playoff berth in nine seasons.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER L’Anse 14, Lake Linden-Hubbell 0 The Purple Hornets (4-1) will have to win at least one more game to have a shot at making the playoffs for the first time since 2013, and their final four opponents are a combined 16-4. But L’Anse has set itself up for success just about as well as possible, this shutout its first in two seasons and against a Lakes team that at 3-2 is in a similar boat as it works to get back to the postseason. Click for more from the Houghton Daily Mining Gazette.

Watch list Menominee 35, Boyne City 0 Last season was the rarest of rare for the Maroons, who finished below .500 and didn’t make the playoffs both for the first time since 1995. But Menominee has rebounded substantially, its only loss to a Kaukauna, Wis., team that is 5-1. Boyne City fell to 2-3, but is tied for the lead in the NMFL Legends division.

Remember this one Negaunee 40, Ishpeming 20 After a pair of losses to still-unbeaten Iron Mountain and Calumet to start the fall, Negaunee (3-2) has won three straight with its largest margin yet coming against the Hematites (3-2).  

More shoutouts Sault Ste. Marie 24, Ogemaw Heights 12 The Blue Devils (4-1) are a win shy of equaling last year’s 5-4 finish and a candidate to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015, while Ogemaw Heights remains in the hunt for its first postseason berth since 2013. Escanaba 31, Kingsford 8 The Eskymos (4-1) bounced back from a painful loss to Marquette with their second-best defensive performance of the season in locking down the Flivvers (2-3).

West Michigan

HEADLINER Muskegon Oakridge 15, Montague 13 (OT) One of the best rivalries in Michigan just keeps getting better. This time, Oakridge (5-0) emerged victorious by stopping Montague’s 2-point conversion try to tie in overtime. This close finish follows Montague’s one-point win a year ago and is the fourth meeting over the last five between these two to be decided by seven points or fewer. Oakridge and Ravenna now sit atop the West Michigan Conference standings, with Montague (4-1) one game back. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Byron Center 23, Zeeland West 22 We’ve talked up Byron Center (5-0) a bit in the early going this fall, but this win over Ottawa-Kent Conference Green powerhouse Zeeland West (4-1) is another major sign this could be a special season. This was the Bulldogs’ first win over the Dux since 2016, when Byron Center finished 10-2.

Remember this one Grandville 22, East Kentwood 21 The Bulldogs’ star continues to rise, and winning close against reigning O-K Red champion East Kentwood (3-2) could end up one the most important wins of the season as Grandville (5-0) looks to contend.

More shoutouts Zeeland East 42, Holland Christian 39 (OT) The two-time reigning champion Chix (4-1) just got past Holland Christian (2-3) to also remain undefeated in O-K Green play. Sparta 48, Grand Rapids West Catholic 7 The Spartans (4-1) took a serious step toward making the playoffs for the first time since 2013 and also can eye winning more than five games for the first time since 2011. Additionally, they hampered West Catholic’s hopes of extending its 16-year playoff streak. The Falcons (1-4) will have to win out to have the opportunity.

8-Player

HEADLINER Colon 42, Climax-Scotts 0 This was our featured 8-player matchup in Friday’s preview, and as noted then Climax-Scotts (4-1) had beaten Colon in 11-straight 11-player games before Colon switched to 8-player beginning with the 2018 season. The Magi (5-0) showed their superiority in this format, leaping a major hurdle as they run for a second straight Southern Central Athletic Association A championship. Click for more from JoeInsider.com. 

Watch list Mio 32, Hillman 14 The Thunderbolts have gone from 17 straight losses in 11-player to a 4-1 start in 8-player and handing Hillman (4-1) its first defeat of this fall. The Tigers had beaten Mio in four straight before they took a year off when Hillman moved to 8-player a year ago.

Remember this one Cedarville 48, Brimley 6 The Trojans (3-2) kept themselves in the mix in what looks like a strong Great Lakes Conference East, bouncing back from a loss to Rapid River by handing Brimley (4-1) its lone defeat.

More shoutouts Bellevue 30, Camden-Frontier 12 The Broncos gave themselves a chance in the SCAA A with a second-straight big win heading into this week’s matchup with Colon. Camden-Frontier (3-2) gets Colon in two weeks. Tekonsha 56, Waldron 54 (OT) Tekonsha (3-2) held on to stay on top in the SCAA B as it looks to repeat, with Week 7 opponent Burr Oak the only other team unbeaten in league play.

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Muskegon Oakridge's Leroy Quinn (20) breaks through the line during his team's 15-13 win over rival Montague. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)