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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 1 Review

October 29, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

One MHSAA Playoffs week is done, with four to go. Here’s some of what we’ve seen so far:

• Of 144 games played over the weekend, 39 were decided by seven or fewer points. Six were decided by merely one point!

• We had the fifth-highest scoring game in MHSAA history, where the losing team scored at least 40 points, and two more that saw teams combine to blow past 100 points. Another game passed 90, and a handful more saw more than 80 points put on the board.

• We will have at least two new champions. Central Lake in 8-Player Division 1 didn’t qualify for this postseason, and five-time reigning Division 5 champion Grand Rapids West Catholic was eliminated over the weekend.

So with those as a start, this week – as with most first weeks of the MHSAA Playoffs – was filled with rematches from the regular season, a few upsets and many more wins to set up bigger games in the next round. Read on for a few notes on four of the most intriguing results from each division.

“Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid. 

Division 1

HEADLINER: East Kentwood 31, Brighton 28 The Falcons (9-1) came back from an early 14-point deficit to earn their first playoff win since 2014. East Kentwood’s field goal was the only score of the second half. Brighton finished 7-3 but with two losses by a combined eight points. Click for more from FOX 17.

More shoutouts: Rockford 18, Traverse City West 13 The Rams (6-4) hit the road to defeat the Big North Conference champion Titans (7-3). Macomb Dakota 21, Romeo 17 The Cougars (8-2) beat Romeo (6-4) for the second time this fall by seven or fewer points, this time to set up a rematch with rival Clinton Township Chippewa Valley. Dearborn Fordson 24, Grosse Pointe South 17 The Tractors (9-1) scored 21 unanswered fourth-quarter points, and their 24 total were the second most given up this season by the Blue Devils (8-2).  

Division 2

HEADLINER: Okemos 31, Jackson 22 The Chiefs (7-3) have reached their highest win total and won their first playoff game both since 2011 under first-year coach Mike Krumm. This victory also ended a dream season for Jackson (9-1), which won its first league title in more than 70 years and (research pending) may have achieved its first perfect regular season. Click for more from State Champs Sports Network.

More shoutouts: South Lyon 31, Dexter 24 (OT) The Lions (10-0) held on to extend their winningest season since 2004 with their first playoff win since 2011, ending Dexter’s first playoff season ever at 6-4. Jenison 64, Traverse City Central 43 The Wildcats (7-3) emerged from this offensively-charged matchup with their first playoff win since 2001 and despite Central (7-3) scoring its second-most points in a game this season. Temperance Bedford 55, Dearborn Heights Crestwood 21 The Mules (6-4) continued their surge after a 2-4 start, ending the winningest season for Crestwood (8-2) since 1991.

Division 3

HEADLINER: Detroit Martin Luther King 7, River Rouge 6 These two entered the playoffs both averaging more than 40 points per game. But the Crusaders (8-2) bounced back from giving up 42 to Cass Tech in Week 9 by holding River Rouge (8-2) to single digits – not just for the second time this year, but the second time in four seasons. The Panthers’ defense, for its part, gave up only 24 points over its final eight game after a 40-7 loss to Cass in the season opener. Click for more from MLive-Detroit.

More shoutouts: Parma Western 21, Mattawan 14 (OT) The Panthers (9-1) held on to celebrate the first playoff win in program history. Mattawan finished 5-5 but with three straight losses by seven points or fewer. Battle Creek Central 25, Middleville Thornapple Kellogg 24 The Bearcats (7-3) earned their first playoff win since 2004, coming back after the Trojans (7-3) got off to a fast start. Muskegon 42, East Grand Rapids 35 The Big Reds (10-0) held on in one of their few close games of this season and a rematch of their 49-21 Week 3 win over the Pioneers (6-4).

Division 4

HEADLINER: Chelsea 28, Grosse Ile 21 The Bulldogs (7-3) didn’t make the loudest noise this season coming out of a Southeastern Conference White that saw Jackson and Dexter both receive statewide acclaim for their best seasons ever. But Chelsea earned its moment with this upset of the previously-unbeaten Red Devils (9-1).  Click for more from the Sun Times News.

More shoutouts: Paw Paw 14, Three Rivers 7 After being shut out by Three Rivers 26-0 in Week 5, Paw Paw (8-2) beat the Wildcats (8-2) for the first time since 2014 and scored on them for the first time since 2015. Escanaba 27, Ludington 20 The Eskymos (8-2) will play for a third straight District title thanks to a late score against the Orioles (7-3). North Branch 44, Croswell-Lexington 41 The Broncos (8-2) earned their first playoff win since 2006, coming back to beat the Pioneers (6-4) after falling to them 45-26 only two weeks earlier.

Division 5

HEADLINER: Clare 42, Manistee 28 The Jack Pine Conference co-champ earned a District Final rematch with Reed City by ending Manistee’s best season of the playoff era at 9-1. The Pioneers (9-1) tied the most points given up this season by the Chippewas, who rebounded from 2-7 a year ago. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun and see below for highlights from MI Sports Now.

More shoutouts: Hudsonville Unity Christian 41, Grand Rapids West Catholic 22 The Crusaders (8-2) ended West Catholic’s opportunity to extend its Division 5 title reign to six seasons, handing the Falcons (5-5) their earliest playoff departure since 2005. Hopkins 46, Berrien Springs 6 In a clash of league champions, Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver winner Hopkins (9-1) impressed against Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference Red champ Berrien Springs (7-3). Lansing Catholic 22, Olivet 21 Quarterback Josh Kramer scored and then threw the game-winning two-point conversion pass with 47 seconds to play as Lansing Catholic (9-1) edged the Greater Lansing Activities Conference champion Eagles (8-2).

Division 6

HEADLINER: Millington 50, Ithaca 33 These teams met for the first time since 2014, when Ithaca won a District Final 35-0. This time, the Yellowjackets (8-2) were contained to their shortest season since not making the playoffs in 2008. Millington (7-3) will play for its third straight District title coming off its second game this season scoring 50 or more points, led by running back Jack Shreve’s 194 yards and three touchdowns rushing. Click for more from the Saginaw News and see highlights below from WEYI.

More shoutouts: Delton Kellogg 86, Niles Brandywine 50 – These teams – both 7-3 – combined to score the fifth-most points in a game in MHSAA history where the losing team put up at least 40. Among record book-worthy performances, Shane Brown caught five touchdown passes for the Bobcats, but they couldn’t keep up with a Panthers’ offense averaging 41 points per game. Michigan Center 35, Grass Lake 6 The Cardinals (9-1) may have fallen short of the Cascades Conference championship because of a four-point loss to eventual title winner Grass Lake in Week 6, but they’ll move on to a District Final after this big rematch win. Blissfield 21, Hillsdale 10 The Royals (6-4) avenged a 10-point Week 6 loss to the Lenawee County Athletic Association co-champion Hornets (8-2), despite getting outgained in yardage 257-191.

Division 7

HEADLINER: Saugatuck 49, Kent City 28 A live cable audience (FOX Sports Detroit) was able to enjoy this high-scoring matchup, which saw the reigning Division 7 runner-up Indians (9-1) pull away after the teams were tied 21-21 at halftime. Kent City (8-2) gave Saugatuck its closest game since a Week 4 loss to Schoolcraft. Click for more from the Holland Sentinel and see highlights below from WOOD TV.

More shoutouts: Lake City 30, North Muskegon 28 The Trojans (10-0) kept their unbeaten season alive, but with their second two-point win this fall and second by seven or fewer points over the last two weeks. North Muskegon (5-5) scored the most points Lake City has given up this season. Allen Park Cabrini 7, Detroit Community 6 The Monarchs (6-4) held on after scoring during the first quarter for their first playoff win since 2007, in the first playoff game ever for Community (8-2). Centreville 16, Union City 14 The Bulldogs (9-1) reached nine wins for the first time at least in the playoff era, just holding off the Chargers (6-4).

Division 8

HEADLINER: Reading 65, Pittsford 48 This was another one that will make the record books as these teams combined for 113 points. A fun fact is that Pittsford (7-3) scored more points than Reading had given up this entire season (40) heading into the night – but the Rangers (10-0) also upped their average to 52 per game with their highest output of this fall. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.

More shoutouts: Harbor Beach 26, Saginaw Nouvel 6 The Pirates (9-1) avenged last season’s one-point District Final loss to Nouvel (6-4), which went on last year to finish Division 8 runner-up. Ubly 30, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 28 The Cardinals (7-3) seemed like an intriguing contender in Division 8 with previous losses only to Division 6 teams, but Ubly (8-2) made the Division 7 Semifinals two years ago and might be ready for another run. Dansville 29, Sterling Heights Parkway Christian 20 The Aggies (7-3) couldn’t get past reigning Division 7 champion Pewamo-Westphalia in their league this fall, but Division 8 should be on the lookout after they handed Parkway (9-1) its only defeat.

8-Player Division 1

HEADLINER: Deckerville 54, Kingston 16 The Eagles (8-2) are off and running again, earning an opportunity to win a fifth straight Regional title by dispatching rival Kingston (8-2) for the second time this fall – and after winning the first meeting by only 18. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

More shoutouts: AuGres-Sims 58, Mayville 6 After 12 tries in 11-player, first-year 8-player AuGres-Sims (10-0) earned its first playoff win to end Mayville’s second straight 5-5 season. Bellevue 54, Battle Creek St. Philip 6 The second-place Broncos (9-1) earned a rematch with Southern Central Athletic Association A champion Colon after winning this second meeting with St. Philip (6-4) in four weeks. Colon 58, Camden-Frontier 14 The Magi (9-1) came back from a Week 9 loss to beat Camden-Frontier (5-5) for the second time this season.

8-Player Division 2

HEADLINER: Crystal Falls Forest Park 36, Powers North Central 24 The reigning champion Trojans (6-4) opened the playoffs with a win over Jets for the second straight season, but this one hardly was expected after North Central (8-2) won their first meeting 52-28 in Week 6. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

More shoutouts: Rapid River 20, Engadine 18 The Rockets (7-3) had fallen 30-12 to Engadine (8-2) only two weeks earlier and also in last season’s playoff opener. Brethren 42, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 26 The West Michigan D League champion Bobcats (7-3) bounced back from a Week 9 loss to win their first playoff game since 1990 and end the Irish’s first season of 8-player at 7-3. Tekonsha 28, New Haven Merritt 22 (OT) The SCAA B champion Indians (6-4) earned their first playoff win in their second postseason game all-time, downing the Northern Central Thumb League White champion Mustangs (6-4).

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PHOTO: A Kent City ball carrier charges through a hole in the Saugatuck defense, but the Indians went on to win the Division 7 playoff opener that was broadcast live on FOX Sports Detroit. (Photo by John Johnson.)