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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Drive for Detroit: Week 6 in Review

October 1, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Start printing the tickets.

A total of 55 undefeated 11-player football teams have clinched spots in this season’s 256-team field, all but one doing so with wins during our latest highlight-filled weekend. (Jackson Lumen Christi, playing eight regular-season games, clinched a berth in Week 5.)

Our look below at 45 results from Friday and Saturday notes many of these, but focuses mostly on league races – some partially clinched, many still completely up for grabs with three weeks to play until the postseason begins.

“Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid. 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER: Saginaw Swan Valley 34, Alma 6 The Vikings (6-0) clinched a share of the Tri-Valley Conference Central title for the second straight season with another stifling defensive performance. Swan Valley has given up 54 points total this season and no more than seven in four league games. Alma (5-1) hadn’t been held to so few points since Week 4 of 2016. Click for more from the Saginaw News and see highlights below from WJRT.

Also of note: North Branch 37, Richmond 0 This was the Broncos’ best win in … well, at least this decade and perhaps longer. North Branch (5-1) is on a major comeback after going 1-8 a year ago, and in its first season in the Blue Water Area Conference suddenly sits in second place after winning big against one of the yearly favorites. 

Remember this one: Flint Hamady 34, Goodrich 28 These teams are leading separate divisions of the Genesee Area Conference, but beating the Martians (4-2) will help Hamady (6-0) down the road. Six of the Hawks’ opponents are Class C, but Goodrich is Class B and provides a nice playoff point boost.

More shoutouts: Lapeer 42, Grand Blanc 10 With this win over the third-place Bobcats (4-2), Lapeer (6-0) guaranteed its Week 9 game against co-leader Davison will guarantee one of those teams at least a share of the Saginaw Valley League Blue title. Swartz Creek 49, Linden 28 The Dragons’ now-squashed losing streak against Linden (3-3) stretched 12 seasons to when the former joined the Flint Metro League in 2006. Swartz Creek (5-1) can earn its first playoff berth since 2012 next week and remains undefeated in league play.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER: Belleville 29, Dearborn Fordson 26 The Tigers (6-0) went ahead for good in the fourth quarter and held on through a late Fordson drive to move into first place alone in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East – and take an upper hand at the statewide level as both stand to be Division 1 contenders when the playoff field is selected in three weeks. The Tractors (5-1) have lost only to Belleville over the last two regular seasons. Click for more from MLive-Detroit and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network. 

Also of note: Detroit Loyola 20, Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood 17 Loyola (4-2) sits atop the Detroit Catholic League AA standings by a half game with one more league win than Detroit U-D Jesuit, this week’s opponent. The Cranes fell to 4-2 with their losses by a combined 10 points. 

Remember this one: Detroit Osborn 12, Detroit Western International 6 The Knights, after going only 1-8 a year ago, clinched a share of the Detroit Public School League Gold title. Western (4-2), however, remains in position to secure its second straight playoff berth after making the postseason a year ago for the first time. 

More shoutouts: Detroit Community 30, Detroit University Prep Science & Math 8 Community won an outright division title in the Michigan Metro Athletic Conference, and also clinched the first playoff berth in the program's eight varsity seasons. Grosse Ile 33, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 14 The Red Devils (6-0) face both second-place teams in the Huron League over the next two weeks and need to beat one to clinch a share of the title. But that opportunity started with getting past the Falcons (4-2), who beat Grosse Ile 20-7 a year ago. Gibraltar Carlson 47, Allen Park 29 The Marauders (5-1), after finishing second in the Downriver League a year ago, are tied for first after beating the only team, Allen Park (4-2), that has beaten co-leader Brownstown Woodhaven (which defeated Carlson in Week 1). 

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER: Mount Pleasant 40, Midland 20 The Oilers (6-0) moved into a first-place tie with only Midland Dow in the SVL Red by sending Midland (3-3) into third place. All three teams still have three league games to play, but Mount Pleasant has guaranteed its best record and first playoff berth since 2015. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

Also of note: Haslett 33, St. Johns 14 These two and Williamston are tied for first place in the Capital Area Activities Conference Red. The Vikings (5-1) finish with winless Lansing Eastern, while St. Johns (3-3) faces a challenge this week from Fowlerville and Williamston gets Mason.

 

Remember this one: Dansville 40, Fowler 9 It’s hard to get credit in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference when two-time reigning Division 7 champion Pewamo-Westphalia is dominating the headlines. But the Aggies (5-1) are tied for first heading into this week’s game with the Pirates and after going 3-6 a year ago. And Fowler (4-2) has equaled its win total from last season with three more games to play.

 

More shoutouts: Mason 19, Fowlerville 15 The Bulldogs (3-3) have rebounded from 2-7 a year ago and are a combined nine points from being 5-1 and tied for first in the CAAC Red as well. Olivet 56, Vermontville Maple Valley 8 The Eagles quietly are off to a second straight 6-0 start (and with a win over Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver leader Hopkins) heading into this week’s Greater Lansing Activities Conference title decider against reigning champion Lake Odessa Lakewood.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER: Maple City Glen Lake 23, Elk Rapids 15 The Lakers (3-3) opened 0-2 and took a third tough defeat to Gladstone two weeks ago, but rallied to claim a share of the Northern Michigan Football League Leaders championship. Elk Rapids (4-2) and Frankfort are tied for second with a game to play for all three. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle and check out highlights below from MI Sports Now.

Also of note: Lake City 27, Leroy Pine River 0 The Trojans (6-0) clinched a share of a second straight Highland Conference title by downing an improved Pine River team that fell to 4-2 but would’ve created a three-way tie for first with a win. 

Remember this one: Traverse City West 19, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 13 Although a non-league win for Big North Conference leader West (4-2), it should be a key playoff confidence builder as the Cavaliers have played much better than their 3-3 record. 

More shoutouts: Manistee 39, Riverview Gabriel Richard 6 A week after clinching a share of the Lakes 8 Conference, Manistee (6-0) won big against the Catholic League Intersectional l-leading Pioneers (3-3). Oscoda 50, Tawas 15 Defeating rival Tawas (3-2) is always a plus, and the Owls (5-1) extended their winning streak to five with their fourth game of 50 or more points this fall.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER: Jackson 39, Ypsilanti Lincoln 14 The Vikings (6-0) pulled a major step closer to earning their first league title since 1942, downing the second-place Railsplitters (4-2). Jackson finishes its league schedule against back-to-back opponents with 2-4 records. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot and see highlights below from JTV.

Also of note: Grass Lake 14, Michigan Center 10 A year after Michigan Center and Napoleon shared the Cascades Conference title, Grass Lake (6-0) and Napoleon are tied for first with two league games to play and the Cardinals (5-1) now trailing by one win. Grass Lake and Napoleon play this week. 

Remember this one: Hillsdale 37, Blissfield 27 The final three games are going to be just as difficult, but getting past the Royals (4-2) put the Hornets (6-0) in first alone in the Lenawee County Athletic Association. 

More shoutouts: Pittsford 28, Athens 6 This win combined with Lenawee Christian’s loss gave the Wildcats (6-0) a share of the Southern Central Athletic Association title and dropped Athens (3-2) out of contention. Parma Western 30, Battle Creek Pennfield 13 The Panthers (5-1) moved into a second-place tie in the Interstate 8 Activities Conference by knocking Pennfield (4-2) out of a tie for first. 

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER: Kalamazoo Central 26, Battle Creek Central 20 (OT) Meeting 115 between these century-old rivals was a classic and earned the Maroon Giants (4-2) a share of the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference East title. The Bearcats (4-2) came back from two scores down after three quarters, but Kalamazoo Central made a last stand in overtime. The teams were a combined 5-13 just a year ago. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer and see below for highlights from FOX 17.

Also of note: St. Joseph 13, Portage Central 6 Despite a Week 4 loss to Stevensville Lakeshore, St. Joseph is back in the SMAC West hunt thanks to a second-straight win over formerly first place Portage Central (4-2). 

Remember this one: Centreville 20, Mendon 0 The Bulldogs (6-0) had been outscored by Mendon (3-3) a combined 145-0 over the last three seasons, but sit atop the Southwest 10 Conference thanks to this win. 

More shoutouts Climax-Scotts 62, Adrian Lenawee Christian 20 In its only home game this season and last as an 11-player team (C-S is switching to 8-player next season), the Panthers shook up the SCAA standings and kept their playoff hopes alive. Schoolcraft 63, Constantine 27 The Eagles (5-1) stayed tied for first in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley with a big win keyed by an MHSAA-record nine rushing touchdowns from junior Kobe Clark.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER: Ishpeming 44, Gwinn 8 The Hematites (6-0) set up a likely league-deciding matchup this week with Iron River West Iron County with a big win over former Western Peninsula Athletic Conference small-school co-leader Gwinn. The Modeltowners (4-2) still could figure into the race with a Week 8 meeting against West Iron also coming up. Click for more from ABC10.

Also of note: Marquette 21, Kingsford 20 The Redmen (3-3) have climbed back from an 0-2 start to move into first place alone in the Great Northern Conference. Kingsford (2-4) must win out for a chance at an at-large playoff bid. 

Remember this one: Escanaba 20, Menominee 12 The Eskymos (4-2) made it two in a row over the Maroons (1-5), and also formerly ended Menominee’s chances at making the playoffs for a 23rd straight season.

More shoutouts: Calumet 24, Iron Mountain 0 The Copper Kings (6-0) haven’t allowed a point in two weeks and have given up only 32 total – and Iron Mountain (4-2) was averaging 30 per game entering the night. Sault Ste. Marie 14, Gladstone 7 The Blue Devils (4-2) won their third game this season by seven points or fewer – and their four wins are as many as the last two seasons combined.

West Michigan

HEADLINER: Grand Rapids Christian 21, Middleville Thornapple Kellogg 14 The Eagles avenged last season’s four-point loss to the Trojans (5-1) by knocking them out of a tie for first place in the O-K Gold. Grand Rapids Christian (5-1) continues to share the top spot with East Grand Rapids. Click for more from FOX 17.

Also of note: Grand Rapids West Catholic 38, Spring Lake 21 The Falcons (3-3) aren’t done yet. With their playoff hopes on the line, reigning Division 5 champion West Catholic handed Spring Lake (5-1) its first loss – and moved into a tie for first in the O-K Blue.

Remember this one: Wyoming Godwin Heights 23, Wyoming Kelloggsville 14 Last season a one-point Kelloggsville win decided the O-K Silver. The Wolverines (3-3) broke a two-game losing streak to the Rockets (3-3) this time to push both into a second-place tie with Belding, one win behind leader Hopkins. 

More shoutouts: East Grand Rapids 42, Grand Rapids South Christian 29 EGR (4-2) shares first in the O-K Gold and likely will be cheering for the Sailors (3-3) this week against Grand Rapids Christian. Hudsonville 16, Grandville 13 (OT) The Eagles (5-1) just held on as one of two teams undefeated in the O-K Red, breaking a four-game losing streak to the Bulldogs (2-4). 

8-Player

HEADLINER: Pickford 59, Stephenson 8 Will anyone catch the Panthers? No team has so far, as Pickford (6-0) has outscored its opponents by a combined 327-47. This big win came against a Stephenson team that while 4-2 could still push for a league title. Click for more from the Sault Ste. Marie Evening News.

Also of note: Colon 51, Camden-Frontier 0 The Magi (6-0) continued to impress in their first season of 8-player, handing the Redskins (4-2) their first shutout in three seasons playing this format.

Also of note: Powers North Central 52, Crystal Falls Forest Park 28 The Jets (5-1) moved into first place alone in the Great Lakes Conference West, a win away from clinching a share of the title while Forest Park (3-3) sits tied for second.

More shoutouts: Hillman 38, Posen 34 The Tigers (5-1) continued factoring into the Midwest Central Michigan Conference East race by knocking Posen (5-1) out of a tie for first. Peck 8, Mayville 0 The Pirates (5-1) moved into first place with Deckerville in the North Central Thumb League Blue by sending Mayville (4-2) into a tie for third.

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PHOTO: Saginaw Swan Valley locks down an Alma ball carrier during Friday's win over the Panthers. Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)