Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
2018 Week 5 Football Playoff Listing
September 18, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Here is a list of Michigan High School Athletic Association football playing schools, displaying their win-loss records and playoff averages through the fourth week of the season.
Schools on this list are in enrollment order for 11-player teams, with 8-player teams ordered by playoff average. An asterisk (*) beside a record indicates a team has eight or fewer games scheduled.
Those schools with 11-player teams with six or more wins playing nine-game schedules, or five or more wins playing eight games or fewer, will qualify for the MHSAA Football Playoffs beginning Oct. 26. Schools with 5-4, 4-3 or 4-4 records may qualify if the number of potential qualifiers by win total does not reach the 256 mark. Schools with six or more wins playing nine-game schedules or five or more wins playing eight games or fewer may be subtracted from the field based on playoff average if the number of potential qualifiers exceeds the 256 mark.
Once the 256 qualifying schools are determined, they will be divided by enrollment groups into eight equal divisions of 32 schools, and then drawn into regions of eight teams each and districts of four teams each. Those schools with 8-player teams will be ranked by playoff average at season’s end, and the top 32 programs will then be divided into two divisions of 16 each based on enrollment. The playoff in that division also begins Oct. 26.
To review a list of all football playoff schools, individual school playoff point details and to report errors, visit the Football page of the MHSAA Website.
The announcement of the qualifiers and first-round pairings for both the 11 and 8-player playoffs will take place Oct. 21 on the Selection Sunday Show on FOX Sports Detroit. The playoff qualifiers and pairings will be posted to the MHSAA Website following the Selection Sunday Show.
11-Player Playoff Listing
1. Macomb Dakota, 3114, 4-0, 90.000
2. Dearborn Fordson, 2795, 4-0, 88.000
3. East Kentwood, 2651, 3-1, 70.750
4. Grand Blanc, 2637, 4-0, 94.000
5. Clarkston, 2548, 4-0, 96.000
6. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley, 2462, 4-0, 98.000
7. Detroit Cass Tech, 2432, 4-0, 90.000
8. Canton, 2260, 3-1, 68.250
9. Brighton, 2202, 3-1, 70.750
10. Holland West Ottawa, 2190, 3-1, 66.500
11. Oxford, 2170, 3-1, 74.500
12. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 2115, 3-1, 80.667
13. Detroit Catholic Central, 2020, 3-1, 76.750
14. West Bloomfield, 2005, 3-1, 72.750
15. Macomb L'Anse Creuse North, 1994, 3-1, 66.500
16. Monroe, 1949, 3-1, 69.550
17. Hudsonville, 1879, 4-0, 90.667
18. Saline, 1834, 3-1, 70.750
19. Romeo, 1779, 3-1, 72.500
20. Detroit Western International, 1773, 3-1, 54.750
21. Lapeer, 1772, 4-0, 86.000
22. Davison, 1687, 4-0, 88.000
23. Belleville, 1642, 4-0, 98.000
24. Brownstown Woodhaven, 1628, 4-0, 94.000
25. Grosse Pointe South, 1593, 4-0, 92.000
26. Warren Mott, 1585, 3-1, 72.750
27. Waterford Mott, 1558, 3-1, 66.500
28. Warren DeLaSalle, 1474, 3-1, 66.750
29. Jenison, 1464, 3-1, 64.250
30. Livonia Franklin, 1443, 3-1, 64.000
31. Dearborn Heights Crestwood, 1424, 4-0, 76.000
32. Traverse City Central, 1391, 3-1, 70.250
33. Birmingham Seaholm, 1376, 3-1, 68.750
34. Oak Park, 1349, 4-0, 90.000
35. Portage Central, 1349, 3-1, 70.250
36. Roseville, 1303, 3-1, 56.750
37. Port Huron Northern, 1295, 3-1, 70.500
38. St. Clair Shores Lake Shore, 1276, 3-1, 64.500
39. Swartz Creek, 1262, 4-0, 92.000
40. Walled Lake Western, 1258, 3-1, 66.500
41. Jackson, 1229, 4-0, 88.000
42. Ypsilanti Lincoln, 1226, 3-1, 56.500
43. South Lyon, 1225, 4-0, 92.000
44. Muskegon Mona Shores, 1215, 4-0, 90.000
45. Birmingham Brother Rice, 1168, 3-1, 73.567
46. Fenton, 1160, 3-1, 68.500
47. Mattawan, 1153, 3-1, 64.250
48. Detroit Martin Luther King, 1149, 3-1, 54.750
49. Warren Woods Tower, 1126, 4-0, 78.000
50. Auburn Hills Avondale, 1115, 3-1, 64.250
51. Gibraltar Carlson, 1114, 3-1, 70.750
52. East Lansing, 1111, 4-0, 88.667
53. Farmington, 1111, 4-0, 90.000
54. Allen Park, 1105, 3-1, 68.500
55. Garden City, 1080, 3-1, 62.000
56. South Lyon East, 1063, 3-1, 64.500
57. Mt. Pleasant, 1053, 4-0, 84.000
58. Muskegon, 1022, 4-0, 98.000
59. Battle Creek Central, 1014, 3-1, 66.500
60. Gaylord, 1002, 4-0, 80.000
61. DeWitt, 1001, 4-0, 94.000
62. Zeeland West, 997, 3-1, 68.500
63. Cedar Springs, 992, 3-1, 68.750
64. Zeeland East, 955, 3-1, 58.500
65. Detroit Mumford, 943, 3-1, 60.500
66. Trenton, 914, 3-1, 70.500
67. Riverview, 913, 3-1, 58.500
68. Middleville Thornapple Kellogg, 903, 4-0, 80.000
69. River Rouge, 897, 3-1, 58.750
70. Haslett, 895, 4-0, 84.000
71. Ortonville-Brandon, 887, 3-1, 70.250
72. Grand Rapids Christian, 886, 3-1, 66.750
73. Parma Western, 870, 3-1, 56.750
74. Chelsea, 851, 3-1, 70.500
75. Farmington Hills Harrison, 849, 3-1, 66.750
76. Spring Lake, 845, 4-0, 74.000
77. Edwardsburg, 838, 4-0, 76.000
78. Wayland Union, 829, 3-1, 64.750
79. Plainwell, 825, 3-1, 52.750
80. Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood, 809, 3-1, 62.917
81. Milan, 761, 3-1, 54.500
82. Goodrich, 758, 3-1, 62.500
83. Detroit Cody, 755, 4-0, 84.000
84. Allendale, 749, 3-1, 56.750
85. North Branch, 726, 3-1, 52.750
86. Croswell-Lexington, 724, 3-1, 56.500
87. Battle Creek Pennfield, 709, 3-1, 62.500
88. Pontiac Notre Dame Prep, 702, 3-1, 52.500
89. Detroit Country Day *, 687, 3-1, 67.050
90. Three Rivers, 682, 4-0, 82.000
91. Holland Christian, 672, 3-1, 58.750
92. Paw Paw, 670, 3-1, 56.750
93. Whitehall, 669, 3-1, 50.750
94. Grand Rapids Catholic Central, 662, 3-1, 54.500
95. Alma, 643, 4-0, 68.000
96. Lake Odessa Lakewood, 643, 3-1, 62.500
97. Williamston, 619, 3-1, 62.250
98. Grand Rapids South Christian, 615, 3-1, 63.167
99. Grosse Ile, 609, 4-0, 74.000
100. Dearborn Heights Robichaud, 608, 4-0, 74.000
101. Hudsonville Unity Christian, 602, 4-0, 86.000
102. Harper Woods, 594, 3-1, 44.750
103. Freeland, 584, 3-1, 52.750
104. Saginaw Swan Valley, 573, 4-0, 90.000
105. Belding, 572, 3-1, 54.500
106. Muskegon Oakridge, 571, 4-0, 68.000
107. Macomb Lutheran North, 560, 4-0, 70.000
108. Birch Run, 552, 3-1, 58.500
109. St. Clair Shores South Lake, 551, 3-1, 50.500
110. Portland, 550, 4-0, 74.000
111. Frankenmuth, 549, 3-1, 60.750
112. Olivet, 542, 4-0, 72.000
113. Detroit Osborn, 537, 3-1, 44.750
114. Lansing Catholic, 531, 4-0, 70.000
115. Richmond, 524, 3-1, 56.000
116. Ida, 512, 3-1, 58.500
117. Hopkins, 507, 3-1, 58.750
118. Benzie Central, 505, 3-1, 52.750
119. Detroit Denby, 504, 4-0, 66.667
120. Reed City, 504, 4-0, 80.000
121. Almont, 503, 4-0, 68.000
122. Marine City, 503, 3-1, 56.750
123. Berrien Springs, 500, 3-1, 54.750
124. Dundee, 485, 3-1, 52.500
125. Manistee, 472, 4-0, 64.000
126. Durand, 468, 3-1, 46.250
127. Coloma, 460, 3-1, 48.500
128. Ovid-Elsie, 453, 3-1, 50.750
129. Kalamazoo Hackett, 450, 4-0, 66.000
130. Clare, 449, 3-1, 48.500
131. Montague, 445, 3-1, 42.750
132. Kingsley, 443, 3-1, 54.750
133. Hillsdale, 441, 4-0, 66.000
134. Tawas *, 418, 3-1, 38.750
135. Michigan Center, 412, 4-0, 56.000
136. Brooklyn Columbia Central, 410, 3-1, 58.500
137. Constantine, 400, 4-0, 64.000
138. Fennville, 400, 3-1, 48.750
139. Calumet, 392, 4-0, 70.800
140. Warren Michigan Collegiate, 392, 4-0, 74.000
141. Ishpeming Westwood, 391, 2-2, 37.417
142. Millington, 390, 3-1, 54.000
143. Ithaca, 388, 3-1, 50.750
144. Ecorse, 387, 3-1, 46.750
145. Blissfield, 383, 3-1, 60.750
146. Delton Kellogg, 378, 4-0, 68.000
147. Hemlock, 374, 3-1, 42.500
148. Morley Stanwood, 369, 3-1, 48.250
149. Elk Rapids, 366, 3-1, 42.500
150. Napoleon, 365, 3-1, 42.500
151. Beaverton, 362, 3-1, 46.750
152. Grass Lake, 357, 4-0, 56.000
153. Jackson Lumen Christi *, 356, 4-0, 84.000
154. Traverse City St. Francis, 355, 4-0, 84.000
155. Flint Hamady, 353, 4-0, 58.000
156. Schoolcraft, 353, 3-1, 50.500
157. Kent City, 351, 4-0, 58.000
158. Lake City, 348, 4-0, 64.000
159. Leroy Pine River, 348, 4-0, 56.000
160. L'Anse, 344, 3-1, 48.250
161. Ravenna, 344, 3-1, 40.500
162. Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian, 332, 3-1, 42.500
163. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, 331, 3-1, 63.167
164. St. Louis, 331, 3-1, 48.500
165. Oscoda, 329, 3-1, 28.000
166. Hartford, 322, 4-0, 52.000
167. Roscommon, 319, 3-1, 58.500
168. Madison Heights Madison, 316, 4-0, 80.000
169. Pewamo-Westphalia, 315, 4-0, 56.000
170. Clinton, 313, 3-1, 42.500
171. Detroit Community, 308, 4-0, 48.000
172. Madison Heights Bishop Foley, 306, 3-1, 48.750
173. New Lothrop, 302, 4-0, 66.000
174. Springport, 302, 4-0, 54.000
175. Allen Park Cabrini, 300, 3-1, 42.750
176. Sandusky, 300, 4-0, 62.000
177. Iron Mountain, 298, 3-1, 54.400
178. Cass City, 291, 3-1, 48.250
179. Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker, 282, 3-1, 48.500
180. Harbor Springs, 280, 4-0, 50.000
181. Manton, 280, 3-1, 42.750
182. Centreville, 279, 4-0, 56.000
183. Saugatuck, 273, 3-1, 50.500
184. Sand Creek, 266, 3-1, 37.417
185. Cassopolis, 261, 4-0, 56.000
186. Concord, 255, 3-1, 42.750
187. Royal Oak Shrine Catholic, 252, 3-1, 40.250
188. Ottawa Lake Whiteford, 250, 4-0, 58.000
189. Carson City-Crystal, 248, 4-0, 46.000
190. Gwinn, 246, 4-0, 54.000
191. Iron River West Iron County, 246, 3-1, 40.750
192. Dansville, 244, 3-1, 42.000
193. Reading, 244, 4-0, 66.000
194. Holton, 234, 3-1, 42.500
195. Ishpeming, 233, 4-0, 52.800
196. Ubly, 232, 3-1, 44.750
197. Johannesburg-Lewiston, 226, 3-1, 42.500
198. Breckenridge, 224, 4-0, 60.000
199. Harbor Beach, 222, 3-1, 44.250
200. Rogers City, 220, 4-0, 56.000
201. Sterling Heights Parkway Christian, 220, 4-0, 52.000
202. Detroit Public Safety Academy, 206, 3-1, 37.167
203. Mendon, 193, 3-1, 32.750
204. Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary, 193, 4-0, 50.000
205. Pittsford, 186, 4-0, 52.000
206. Athens *, 185, 3-0, 57.333
207. Adrian Lenawee Christian, 183, 4-0, 52.000
208. Martin, 183, 3-1, 40.000
209. Fowler, 170, 3-1, 36.750
210. Clarkston Everest Collegiate, 115, 4-0, 51.333
8-Player Playoff Listing
1. Colon, 162, 4-0, 50.000
2. Pickford, 156, 4-0, 48.000
3. Onekama, 131, 4-0, 46.667
4. Morrice, 182, 4-0, 46.000
5. AuGres-Sims, 160, 4-0, 44.000
6. Posen, 78, 4-0, 42.000
7. Wyoming Tri-unity Christian, 173, 4-0, 40.000
8. Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart, 122, 3-1, 38.500
9. Brethren, 143, 3-1, 36.250
10. Kingston, 187, 4-0, 36.000
11. Stephenson, 159, 3-1, 35.450
12. Engadine, 102, 3-1, 34.750
13. Hillman, 140, 3-1, 34.750
14. Camden-Frontier, 176, 3-1, 34.500
15. Powers North Central, 109, 3-1, 34.500
16. Battle Creek St. Philip, 178, 3-1, 32.750
17. Suttons Bay, 189, 3-1, 32.750
18. Cedarville, 151, 3-1, 32.500
19. Eben Junction Superior Central, 121, 3-1, 32.500
20. Portland St. Patrick, 102, 3-1, 32.500
21. Genesee, 169, 3-1, 32.250
22. Bellevue, 185, 3-1, 30.750
23. Kinde-North Huron, 130, 3-1, 28.500
24. Manistee Catholic Central, 181, 3-1, 28.500
25. Peck, 136, 3-1, 28.000
26. Mayville, 185, 3-1, 26.750
27. Fife Lake Forest Area, 183, 2-2, 25.250
28. Crystal Falls Forest Park, 125, 2-2, 23.250
29. Deckerville, 175, 2-2, 23.250
30. Webberville, 176, 2-2, 23.000
31. Bellaire, 131, 2-2, 21.917
32. Onaway, 187, 2-2, 21.417
33. Marion, 139, 2-2, 19.250
34. Rapid River, 127, 2-2, 19.250
35. Tekonsha, 121, 2-2, 19.250
36. Rudyard, 159, 2-2, 19.000
37. Waldron, 65, 2-2, 16.750
38. New Haven Merritt Academy, 154, 1-3, 15.500
39. Pellston, 167, 1-3, 13.750
40. Caseville *, 95, 1-2, 13.417
41. Bay City All Saints, 77, 1-3, 11.750
42. Hale, 122, 1-3, 11.750
43. Central Lake *, 190, 1-2, 11.667
44. Atlanta, 74, 1-3, 11.250
45. North Adams-Jerome, 146, 1-3, 11.000
46. Owendale-Gagetown, 57, 1-3, 11.000
47. St. Helen Charlton Heston Academy, 156, 1-3, 10.250
48. Ashley, 94, 1-3, 10.000
49. Big Rapids Crossroads Academy, 201, 1-3, 9.500
50. Mesick, 202, 1-3, 9.500
51. Brimley, 154, 1-3, 9.250
52. Burr Oak, 74, 1-3, 9.250
53. Ontonagon, 173, 1-3, 9.250
54. Burton Madison Academy, 163, 1-3, 8.750
55. Lawrence, 171, 0-4, 2.750
56. Flint International Academy, 171, 0-4, 1.750
57. Bear Lake *, 94, 0-3, 1.250
58. Carney-Nadeau, 133, 0-4, 1.250
59. Felch North Dickinson, 83, 0-4, 1.250
60. Litchfield, 81, 0-4, 1.250
61. St. Joseph Michigan Lutheran, 100, 0-4, 1.250
62. Baldwin, 120, 0-3, 0.500