Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Perry Eager to Begin Playoff Chase Again

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

August 7, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

PERRY – Swirling around in the back of his mind, Tanner Orweller sees what the most historic moment in Perry football history will look like.

The Ramblers, after coming so close so many seasons before, will make the playoffs for the first time. The entire town will turn out for the game – so many fans the bleachers won’t hold them all.

A motivating memory also replays frequently: Orweller, playing safety last fall as a sophomore on the varsity, biting on a pitch to the halfback against Maple Valley although his responsibility was to cover a receiver heading downfield.

That halfback threw a pass to the uncovered receiver, who ended up on the ground just short of the goalline. The Lions went on to defeat Perry by a point – 28-27 – and two weeks later the Rambers ended the season 5-4 and just short again of that elusive postseason berth.

“I know championships are not made in a matter of a year, or two years even,” said Orweller, also a Regional-qualifying wrestler during the winter. “You’ve got to train your whole life in order to be the best at what you do.

“There’s going to be failure in what you do, and you’ve got to know it’s not, ‘Oh no, I’m done.’ It’s, ‘Look, I’ve learned something from this. I know what I can do better. I’m going to practice those things I did wrong and make those mistakes go away so I can succeed next year.’”

Orweller and 19 teammates have been training most of their lives for the opportunity that began again Monday all over the state with the first practices of the 2017 football season.

Not counting schools playing varsity football for the first time this fall, there are 17 programs statewide that have never made the MHSAA Playoffs.

Of those 17, nine schools have existed since at least 1975, the first year football playoffs were conducted by the MHSAA.

And of those nine, Perry is one – and can make a great argument that none of the other 16 has come closer to earning another game more often.

From 1975-98, when playoff qualifiers were determined regionally by playoff-point average (based on success and strength of schedule), Perry enjoyed eight seasons of at least six wins – which would have been plenty under the current playoff format, which set an automatic qualifier at six victories when the 11-player field was expanded to 256 teams in 1999.  The Ramblers had at least six wins four straight seasons from 1983-86, finishing the regular season 9-0 in 1984 but getting left out of the postseason. They then went 7-2 three times over four seasons from 1990-93, but couldn’t break through.

Perry entered the 2006 regular-season finale 5-3 and needing a win over Williamston to qualify for the first time – but lost 14-0.  And then came last season and another 5-4 finish, the Ramblers’ best since that just-miss season a decade before but with a five-point loss to eventual Greater Lansing Activities Conference champion Lake Odessa Lakewood in Week 3 and then the one-point heartbreaker against the Lions a month later.

Telling that senior class that it wouldn’t have enough playoff points to make history was painful for then second-year coach Jeff Bott. And it was followed by a long offseason.

But Bott also saw the roots of a winner sinking in. An assistant at Perry for two years before taking over the program in 2015, Bott grew up in Haslett and never made the playoffs as a player – but was on the coaching staff as the program made the playoffs 12 times over 17 years with two trips to the MHSAA Finals.

He’s seen what it takes to become an annual playoff team. And he’s seen those steps taken, especially from an offseason training point of view, as the Ramblers have climbed back into the conversation.

“They playoffs weren’t something we talked about until we earned (it). I feel last year we earned the right to talk about it,” Bott said. “We aren’t there yet. But now, it’s time to finish. We just have to finish this year.”

Those finishing will mostly be new players. The roster has three seniors plus Orweller and two more juniors who were sophomores on varsity last season. The rest of their teammates are new to the top level.

But the other 13 juniors played together on junior varsity and led a team that finished 7-2, the latest strong run for a class that Orweller recalled finishing 6-1 in fourth grade – when he started having those playoff dreams for the first time.

If the Ramblers succeed in making the playoffs this season or next (or both), junior Drew Crim would be the first of his family including his dad Todd (a 1990 grad) and two uncles who preceded him to play in the postseason in a Perry uniform.

He’s seen success from a distance, cheering on cousin D.J. Zezula, who quarterbacked Clarkston to Division 1 titles in 2013 and 2014 before moving on to Wayne State University. Zezula has imparted on his cousin the importance of keeping his teammates working together and making sure they are accountable to each other on the field and off. Drew was another of the then-sophomores who came up to varsity in 2016. And Todd has pumped up his son’s confidence after watching he and his classmates grow up together. 

“He says this year will be the greatest of probably all. We have a very athletic group of kids, and he thinks we will do great things – Yes, I agree,” Drew Crim said.

“I work with these guys, and I know their tenacity and drive to do better things.”

Bott, who teaches in Haslett and also coaches basketball at Perry, recalled how the Ramblers used to be known for having some sizable guys, but this year’s team has more athletes. He made a point when taking over the program to push for the addition of local Spartan Performance, which trains the team year-round with a focus on improving as a complete athlete instead of just hitting the weights.

That offseason dedication and continued improvement in a wide-open spread attack all contribute to Perry looking the part of a program on the rise. 

Now the Ramblers hope to look the part of playoff team.

“This town loves football. Every Friday night there are 2,000 people here, three deep on the fence,” he said. “(Our players) are focused on giving something back here – for us, for them, but for this town. This program has been looked down on at times, and it hasn’t always been successful, but there have been great athletes and teams that came through in the 90s and we’re trying to get back to where it was.

“I’ve had a lot of people tell me in town that this is the way it used to look.”

PHOTOS: (Top) Perry linemen work through a defensive drill during Monday's opening practice. (Middle) Ramblers coach Jeff Bott addresses his varsity and junior varsity players before those first drills of the 2017 season.