Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Playoff R3 Review
November 14, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
We’ve reached the final two weeks of another Michigan high school football season. Our field of 272 teams four weeks ago is down to only 34. And some of these key games are coming down to every last inch and minute.
Six of nine divisions this weekend saw at least one winner emerge by three or fewer points. Edwardsburg and Chelsea went to overtime. Detroit Cass Tech and Saline entered undefeated and ended only a point apart.
See below for a glance at those two games and all 32 11-player Regional Finals and both 8-player Semifinals, with links to media coverage of notable results in each division.
Division 1
Detroit Cass Tech 43, Saline 42
It was hard to expect more from a matchup of undefeated Division 1 powers than what these two delivered Friday. Cass Tech (12-0) won an incredible seventh straight Regional championship in part on the running of Donovan Johnson, who gained 285 yards and scored four touchdowns on the ground – which balanced out nicely 241 yards and five running scores by Saline’s Connor Hibbard. The Hornets finished 11-1 for the second straight season after winning a third straight District title. Click for more from the Detroit News.
Other Regional Finals:
Detroit Catholic Central 28, Grandville 14 – This run has made it hard to remember that the Shamrocks (12-0) had a rare down year only two years ago, finishing 4-5; Ottawa-Kent Conference Red co-champion Grandville (10-2) was the latest playoff opponent to not come within two touchdowns of DCC, but did finish with its most wins since 1996.
Romeo 41, Clarkston 7 – The reigning Division 1 champion Bulldogs (9-3) needed a little time to really get rolling this fall, but like DCC they’ve also beaten all three playoff opponents by double digits; Clarkston (9-3) did finish two wins better than a year ago.
Utica Eisenhower 42, Southfield Arts & Technology 7 – The Eagles (12-0) have guaranteed their best record since 2003 with their first Regional title since 2011 after a second-straight five-touchdown win this postseason; Southfield Arts & Technology finished its inaugural season a strong 8-4.
Division 2
Lowell 22, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 19
Lowell’s climb against the Rangers wasn’t as steep as when the Red Arrows came back from a 17-point deficit to win their first meeting in Week 7. But Lowell still needed to score last – on a touchdown run by quarterback David Kruse six seconds into the fourth quarter – get ahead of Forest Hills Central for good. The second straight Regional title gave Lowell (12-0) that many wins for the second straight season as well; Forest Hills Central (9-3) finished off one of the best rebound runs statewide after going 2-7 in both 2014 and 2015. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Other Regional Finals:
Walled Lake Western 61, Fenton 21 – The Warriors (11-1) scored their season high to win a second straight Regional title and end a nine-game winning streak for Flint Metro League champion Fenton (9-3).
Detroit Martin Luther King 21, Temperance Bedford 7 – The reigning Division 2 champion Crusaders (10-2) have beaten all of their playoff opponents this time by at least 14; Bedford (9-3) gave King one of its closest games and finished five wins better than a year ago.
Birmingham Groves 44, Grosse Pointe South 10 – Groves (11-1) earned its first Regional title and attained 11 wins for the first time as well, running for 428 yards led by Ernest Allen’s 157 and Collin Heard’s 101; South (8-4) improved a win from last year and doubled its total from only two years ago.
Division 3
Edwardsburg 42, Chelsea 40 (OT)
The Eddies’ substantial run of success this decade now includes a second Regional title in three seasons and the first 12-win season in program history – and Edwardsburg (12-0) earned them by holding off a comeback by Chelsea and stopping a two-point conversion try in overtime. The Eddies’ last Semifinal appearance, in 2014, came in Division 4. Chelsea (11-1) was Division 3 runner-up last season and finished this two-year run a combined 23-3. Click for more from the South Bend Tribune.
Other Regional Finals:
Muskegon 62, Byron Center 7 – The O-K Black champ Big Reds (9-3) won their fourth Regional title in five seasons while ending the winningest season for O-K Green champ Byron Center (10-2) since 2000.
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 35, DeWitt 28 – The Panthers (10-2) led into the third quarter before St. Mary’s (8-4) outscored them 21-7 in the fourth to win a third straight Regional title.
Dearborn Divine Child 28, Allen Park 21 – The Falcons (10-2) continued another of the state’s great comeback seasons, adding a 10th win and Regional title for the first time since 1985 after going 4-5 a year ago; Allen Park (11-1) finished a win better than last season and with its most since 2004 in winning a second straight District title.
Division 4
Detroit Country Day 28, Corunna 13
Country Day won its third straight Regional title and fourth in five seasons by holding the Cavaliers to 133 yards of total offense and getting some key tosses from quarterback Jalen Graham (10 of 15 passing for 123 yards and a touchdown). The Yellowjackets (12-0) jumped out to a 21-7 lead and now have their most wins in a season since 1995. Corunna (9-3) continued its climb from 2-7 two seasons ago to 8-2 last year and this fall its most wins since 2002. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Other Regional Finals:
River Rouge 57, Adrian 20 – The Panthers (11-1) have won their playoff games by 61, 12 and now 37 points on the way to a second straight Regional title; Adrian finished its rebound season 7-5 after three straight 2-7 seasons and four straight with sub-.500 records.
Grand Rapids Catholic Central 34, Escanaba 0 – The Cougars (11-1) are in their first Semifinal since their championship season of 2010 and with their third shutout in four weeks; Escanaba (9-3) can celebrate another jump in its revival after improving from 5-5 a year ago with its most wins since 1989.
Hudsonville Unity Christian 36, Lake Odessa Lakewood 16 – The Crusaders’ first Regional title came in part on the legs of running back Alec Headley, who averaged 16.1 yards per carry gaining 177 of 424 rush yards total for Unity Christian (10-2); Lakewood’s winningest season ended at 10-2 as well.
Division 5
Frankenmuth 28, Ithaca 20
Frankenmuth (11-1) won its first Regional title since 1997 by handing Ithaca (11-1) only its third loss over the team’s last 100 games and first not in an MHSAA championship game since 2009. The Eagles are 48-8 over their last five seasons but had made only one other Regional Final appearance since their last win at that level of the tournament. Three Frankenmuth runners had at least 99 yards on the ground, led by Kris Roche with 161, as the team came back from a 14-0 deficit. Click for more from the Saginaw News.
Other Regional Finals:
Menominee 40, Reed City 14 – The Maroons (11-1) won their fifth Regional title in seven seasons with a fourth straight game scoring 40 or more points; Reed City (11-1) hadn’t given up 40 in a game since its 2014 Regional Final, but did finish with its most wins in a season ever.
Grand Rapids West Catholic 40, Berrien Springs 7 – The Falcons (10-2) have survived three road games to also win a seventh straight Regional title, continuing their travels by ending a third straight playoff season for the Shamrocks (8-3).
Algonac 38, Ida 22 – Last season Ida won its first Regional title; this time Algonac (11-1) celebrated its first Regional championship by downing the Bluestreaks (10-2).
Division 6
Leroy Pine River 42, Ravenna 14
The mood had to be a little low for Pine River heading into the playoffs coming off two straight losses, but you’d never be able to tell. The Bucks (9-3) – also just 4-5 last season – won their first Regional title in a big way over Ravenna (9-3), a traditional power but also a nice comeback story coming off a 3-6 finish in 2015. Click for more from the Big Rapids News.
Other Regional Finals:
Maple City Glen Lake 14, Calumet 0 – The Lakers (10-2) reached 10 wins for the first time since 2001 with their first Regional title since 1996, ending the first 10-win season ever for Calumet (10-2), which was coming off its first District title since 2006.
Millington 22, Detroit Central Collegiate 20 – The Cardinals (11-1) came back from a 20-0 halftime deficit to win their first Regional title since 2010 and third since 2009; Central Collegiate (7-5) capped a third straight playoff season with its most wins since 2010.
Jackson Lumen Christi 49, Napoleon 6 – The Titans (10-2) won their first Regional title since 2009 by ending Napoleon’s winningest season since 2002 and longest playoff run ever at 9-3.
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia 17, Traverse City St. Francis 14
Arguably the most anticipated game statewide this side of Division 1 saw the reigning Division 7 runner-up Pirates (12-0) overcome a second straight undefeated opponent. The Gladiators (11-1) became the first team to hold P-W running back Jared Smith to fewer than 100 yards since his sophomore season two years ago, but the Pirates’ defense held St. Francis to its fewest points since last year’s Regional Final win over Boyne City. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Other Regional Finals:
Ubly 22, New Lothrop 13 – Make this now the Bearcats’ best season since 2009 as they won their first Regional title and 12 games for the first time since that year; Ubly (12-0) got rushing and receiving touchdowns from Jonathan Brandel as it ended New Lothrop’s seventh straight 10-win season at 10-2.
Cassopolis 51, Concord 14 – The Rangers (11-1) set a program record for wins with their first Regional title by scoring the most points Concord (9-3) had given up since Week 8 of 2014; the Yellowjackets did finish this season with their most wins since 2001.
Detroit Loyola 36, Hudson 13 – The Bulldogs (10-2) attained a sixth straight 10-win season by beating a third league champion in three playoff games; Hudson (10-2) had won a share of the Lenawee County Activities Association title and was making its first Regional Final appearance since 2011.
Division 8
St. Ignace 14, Norway 12
The Saints (11-1) have had only two other close games this season, but secured their second straight Regional title relying on a defense that has given up only 131 points this season and only 38 over three playoff games. Norway, playing for its first Regional title since 2006, also shined defensively holding down a St. Ignace offense averaging 42 points per game heading into the day. The Knights finished 9-3, making a significant jump from 2-7 a year ago. Click for more from the Sault Ste. Marie Evening News.
Other Regional Finals:
Muskegon Catholic Central 35, Frankfort 0 – The reigning Division 8 champion Crusaders (12-2) earned their second straight shutout of the playoffs by holding Frankfort (11-1) scoreless for the first time since 2013.
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 28, Royal Oak Shrine 7 – The Cardinals (10-2) clinched a third-straight 10-win season and second Regional title in three seasons; Shrine (9-3) did accomplish a nice bounce-back from 4-5 last season to win its first District title since 2008.
Ottawa Lake Whiteford 38, Climax-Scotts 18 – These two have met two straight postseasons as undefeated teams, and Whiteford (12-0) has won both meetings; the Bobcats made up for three turnovers by getting 100-plus yards rushing from both Logan Murphy and Jesse Kiefer and holding Climax-Scotts (11-1) to its fewest points since the teams met in the same round a year ago.
8-Player
Powers North Central 62, Pickford 22
The reigning champion Jets (12-0) earned their return to the MHSAA Final with 40 first-half points and 506 total yards while possessing the ball only 14 minutes. Running back Bobby Kleiman gained 123 yards on only eight carries, scoring three time on the ground, and also caught three passes for 98 yards and a score. The Panthers did finish their winningest season since 1991 at 10-2. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Deckerville 36, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 6
The Eagles won a matchup of undefeated teams to set up another this weekend, handing Tri-unity Christian (11-1) its first and only loss of the fall. Deckerville (11-0) was held to its fewest points since Week 1, but still hasn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 12 this season. The Eagles had fallen in Semifinals the last two seasons. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.
PHOTO: Pewamo-Westphalia running back Jared Smith breaks into an opening as Traverse City St. Francis defenders converge. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)