Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Playoff R2 in Review
November 7, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Revenge is a dish best served during the playoffs.
And a number of MHSAA title hopefuls enjoyed their shares of the buffet this weekend.
Six of nine playoff divisions saw a team win either an 11-player District championship or 8-player Regional title by avenging a loss from earlier this season. Others avenged losses from playoff runs past – or in a few cases, years of just missing against rivals.
All games at this level of the tournament are big, of course, and below are just a sampling of results that stuck out most from the second round.
Division 1
Clarkston 31, Davison 14
Clarkston (9-2) handed Davison its first and only loss this season on the power of a rushing game that tallied 303 yards and nearly 9.5 per carry. Davison (10-1) scored the game’s first touchdown in the first quarter, but didn’t reach the end zone again until quarterback Brenden McRill ran for his second score midway through the fourth. The District Final was the Cardinals’ first since 2008. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Also noted:
Grandville 20, Rockford 9 – The Bulldogs (10-1) broke a 14-game losing streak to the Rams (7-4), who had beaten Grandville 7-6 in Week 6 and in the playoffs three times over the last 11 seasons.
Saline 37, Canton 31 – The Yellowjackets (11-0) came back from a 10-0 deficit as quarterback Zach Schwartzenberger threw two touchdown passes and ran for a third score to get Saline ahead of the Chiefs (8-3).
Detroit Cass Tech 24, Dearborn 7 – Dearborn (9-2) succeeded in holding Cass Tech (11-0) to its season low in points, but also scored its fewest since Week 5 of 2015.
Division 2
Fenton 49, Midland Dow 42
Fenton scored last, with 2:10 to play, on quarterback Josh Czarnota’s second touchdown pass to go with four touchdown runs as the Tigers (9-2) won their first District title since 2011. Czarnota threw for 264 yards and ran for 166 in a dual with Dow quarterback Bruce Mann, who tossed four touchdown passes with 238 yards and also ran for 127 yards and two scores. The Chargers finished 9-2. Click for more from the Flint Journal.
Also noted:
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 27, Portage Central 13 – The Rangers (9-2) added a District title to their best season since 1995, and after finishing 2-7 each of the last two; Portage Central finished 9-2, one win better than a year ago.
Birmingham Groves 24, Birmingham Brother Rice 0 – These neighbors don’t play often; that said, Groves (10-1) earned its first win over the Warriors since 1963 as Rice (7-4) had won their last eight meetings.
Temperance Bedford 39, Livonia Franklin 22 – The Mules (9-2) are another who have shined after a middling go in 2015; they have as many wins this fall as the last two seasons combined and eliminated a Franklin team that made the Semifinals last season and finished this one 7-4.
Division 3
Chelsea 27, Coldwater 20
This rematch of last season’s Division 3 Semifinal was much closer than Chelsea’s 35-7 victory a year ago. The Bulldogs (11-0) won their third straight District title this time by scoring a touchdown with six seconds left to break a 20-20 tie – and with the win earned a Regional matchup with also-undefeated Edwardsburg. Coldwater finished 8-3. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News.
Also noted:
Byron Center 55, Grand Rapids Christian 28 – The Bulldogs (10-1) got to 10 wins for the first time since 2000 with a second District title in four seasons; Grand Rapids Christian finished its best season in four at 9-2.
Muskegon 28, East Grand Rapids 10 – The Big Reds (10-1) won their fifth straight District title by ending a seven-game winning streak for the Pioneers (8-3).
Allen Park 34, Romulus 0 – The Jaguars (11-0) tied their most wins since 2004 in ending the winningest season for Romulus (9-2) since 2000.
Division 4
Hudsonville Unity Christian 35, Benton Harbor 34 (OT)
Unity Christian (9-2) continued the best season of its 14-year history while ending another incredible run by the Tigers. Benton Harbor followed up last season’s first-ever playoff run and 6-5 finish (after a combined 0-18 the previous two years) with a program-best 10-1 record this fall. Both teams scored in overtime, but the Crusaders stopped the Tigers’ conversion run attempt to win a second straight District title. Click for more from WZZM.
Also noted:
Lake Odessa Lakewood 36, Lansing Sexton 28 – These teams combined for more than 750 yards of total offense, but Lakewood (10-1) reached 10 wins for the first time by holding on despite two touchdown passes by Jackson Barnes over the final 10 minutes that kept Sexton (7-4) in the mix.
Detroit Country Day 45, Marysville 7 – Country Day (11-0) got touchdowns from six players, including one on defense after an interception to hand Marysville (10-1) its lone loss.
Adrian 28, Milan 13 – The Maples (7-4) made good on an at-large bid by claiming a District title against the team that beat them on opening night, 27-13; Milan finished 9-2 and has totaled at least nine wins four of the last five seasons.
Division 5
Grand Rapids West Catholic 10, Portland 7
Offense was at a premium during this matchup of teams that previously combined to average 74 points per game this fall. But West Catholic kicker Liam Putz found a score when it mattered most, drilling a 31-yard field goal with four seconds to play to send the reigning champion Falcons (9-2) onward and end the Raiders’ season at 10-1. Click for more from WZZM.
Also noted:
Ithaca 47, Muskegon Oakridge 6 – It’s fair to call this a statement win for the Yellowjackets (11-0), as Oakridge (9-2) arguably was their strongest opponent to date; it’s also accurate to note that Ithaca suddenly has a 25-game winning streak.
Frankenmuth 49, Freeland 14 – Only two weeks ago, Frankenmuth (10-1) fell 7-3 to the Falcons (10-1); last year Freeland beat the Eagles twice in the same scenario.
Reed City 34, Remus Chippewa Hills 28 – The Coyotes (11-0) have had five 10-win seasons over the last six, but 10 was the max – until Reed City broke through with a second victory over Chippewa Hills (9-2) this season by six points or fewer.
Division 6
Jackson Lumen Christi 37, Schoolcraft 34 (OT)
Abe Johnson’s 13-yard field goal in overtime clinched Lumen Christi’s third straight District title, this one over a pre-playoff title favorite in the Eagles (10-1). The Titans (9-2) are hoping to win their first MHSAA championship since 2009, and took a major step after managing to slightly slow a Schoolcraft offense that came in averaging 46 points per game and had scored fewer than 40 only once. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.
Also noted:
Napoleon 42, Grass Lake 21 – The Pirates (9-2) avenged a Week 2 loss to Cascades Conference rival Grass Lake (9-2) to advance to the third round of the playoffs for the first time.
Calumet 6, Negaunee 0 – The Miners (10-1) also were a popular championship favorite heading into the playoffs with their closest game coming from … Calumet (10-1), which fell to Negaunee 14-6 in Week 2.
Detroit Central Collegiate 26, Warren Michigan Collegiate 22 – The Trail Blazers (7-4) won their first District title since 2010, ending the best season for the Charter School Conference champion Cougars (9-2) since 2011.
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia 25, Saugatuck 19
Few games in any division could match the star power generated by P-W running back Jared Smith and Saugatuck quarterback Blake Dunn, who combined as juniors to run for just shy of 6,000 yards. Smith ran for 222 yards and two scores Saturday to help the Pirates (11-0) hold on against the previously undefeated Indians (10-1) for their sixth straight District title. Click for more from the Ionia Sentinel-Standard.
Also noted:
Detroit Loyola 46, Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett 7 – The Bulldogs (9-2) eliminated a league champion for the second straight round, following up last week’s victory over Madison Heights Madison with this one over Michigan Independent Athletic Conference winner Liggett (10-1).
Concord 48, Homer 32 – The Yellowjackets (9-2) could’ve fallen victim to revenge, but stretched out the margin a little after beating Homer (8-3) only 28-26 in Week 2.
Ubly 24, Unionville-Sebewaing 16 – The story was similar for Ubly (11-0), which kept its best season since 2010 going with another win over opening-night opponent USA (9-2).
Division 8
Norway 40, Lake Linden-Hubbell 16
Opportunities for upset get fewer later in the tournament, but this may fall into that category based on past history. Norway (9-2) continued to forget last year’s 2-7 finish and five straight sub-.500 seasons with a first District title since 2006, earning it against a Lakes team that finished the regular season undefeated for the second season in a row and at 10-1 posted its most wins since 2009. Click for more from the Houghton Daily Mining Gazette.
Also noted:
Royal Oak Shrine 49, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 25 – The Knights (9-2) started their four-game winning streak last month against Everest Collegiate and won their first District title since 2008 with a second win over the Mountaineers (8-3).
Climax-Scotts 28, Mendon 14 – For the second straight season, undefeated Climax-Scotts (11-0) downed playoff rival Mendon (8-3), this time for a second straight District title.
Frankfort 38, Lincoln Alcona 34 – The Panthers (11-0) have had only a few scares this season, and needed a touchdown during the final minute to avoid falling to the Tigers (9-2).
8-Player
Powers North Central 60, Crystal Falls Forest Park 50
Forest Park (9-2) made the margin in this growing Upper Peninsula rivalry even closer in this season’s rematch, but the Jets still pulled away. North Central (11-0) had beaten the Trojans by 18 in Week 2, but scored twice during the fourth quarter to keep its perfect record as an 8-player program intact at 24-0. The teams combined for 1,022 yards of total offense, and the stars shone brightly; Jets quarterback Jason Whitens threw for 286 yards and four touchdowns and ran for 114 yards and four more scores, while Forest Park running back Dan Nocerini capped his high school career with 50 carries for 260 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Other Regional Finals:
Pickford 30, Engadine 28 – The Panthers (10-1) earned a 10th win for the first time since 1991, avenging a 10-point loss to Engadine in Week 3 by handing the Eagles (10-1) their lone defeat.
Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 28, Portland St. Patrick 10 – The Defenders’ first playoff run now includes handing St. Patrick (10-1) its only loss while improving to 11-0.
Deckerville 58, New Haven Merritt 12 – The Eagles (10-0) arguably have been even more dominant than North Central, and only seemed to be getting stronger in handing Merritt (10-1) its first loss.
PHOTO: Fenton (orange helmet) bulled through a tough matchup with Midland Dow to advance in Division 2. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)