Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Playoff R1 Preview
October 28, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The 42nd MHSAA Football Playoffs begin tonight with most of this season’s 272 qualifiers taking the field across both peninsulas and nine divisions.
And there certainly is an air of familiarity in these first-round matchups.
This week’s Drive for Detroit preview – powered by MI Student Aid – touches on five games of intrigue in every division, including a number of rematches of meetings from earlier this season – or in the case of our top Division 1 contest, a rematch of a league title-deciding game played only a week ago.
Division 1
Rockford (6-3) at Hudsonville (8-1)
There isn’t much to say that hasn’t been over the last week. These teams met seven days ago, with Hudsonville claiming a 14-7 win to create a three-way championship in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red between the Eagles, former lone leader Rockford and Grandville. These two also met in the playoffs the last three seasons; Rockford avenged a one-point Week 9 loss a year ago by beating Hudsonville 21-13 for a District title.
Others that caught my eye: Lapeer (7-2) at Clarkston (7-2), Canton (7-2) at Northville (7-2), Macomb Dakota (6-3) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (6-3), Dearborn Fordson (8-1) at Detroit Cass Tech (9-0) on Saturday.
Division 2
Traverse City West (6-3) vs. Traverse City Central (8-1) at Thirlby Field
These neighbors will meet at their shared stadium for the first time in the playoffs, and in front of a crowd that could approach 10,000. Central’s 10-8 win over West in Week 3 ended up giving the Trojans’ a one-win edge over the Titans for the Big North Conference championship. West has lost three in a row to Central, and went on this season to fall close to Benton Harbor and then to Coldwater last week. Central’s only defeat was two weeks ago in triple overtime at Birmingham Brother Rice – and this could be close again too with these teams knowing each other so well.
Others that caught my eye: Portage Northern (5-4) at Portage Central (8-1), Flint Carman-Ainsworth (6-3) at Fenton (7-2), Oak Park (6-3) vs. Detroit U-D Jesuit (6-2) at Hazel Park, Birmingham Brother Rice (6-3) at Warren Cousino (8-1).
Division 3
Battle Creek Harper Creek (7-2) 73.222 at Coldwater (7-2)
Coldwater handed Harper Creek its only loss this season in the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference – 19-7 in Week 7 – but then watched the Beavers share the league title as the Cardinals finished third. But with a schedule that included five games against teams with winning records and three wins over playoff qualifiers, Coldwater earned the right to host this week as it looks to build on last season’s Division 3 Semifinal run. Harper Creek, meanwhile, is back in the playoffs after going 3-6 a year ago and has secured its best record since 2013.
Others that caught my eye: Zeeland West (7-2) at Grand Rapids Christian (8-1), Zeeland East (6-3) at Byron Center (8-1), St. Joseph (6-3) at Stevensville Lakeshore (6-3), East Lansing (6-3) at DeWitt (8-1).
Division 4
Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood (7-2) at Detroit Country Day (9-0), Saturday
Successful in many sports, Cranbrook Kingswood hasn’t had the same kind of long-standing championship tradition in football – but has put together a 22-8 record over the last three seasons under coach Joe D’Angelo, who earned most of his 222 career wins at Detroit Country Day from 1977-97. These two met in the District Final a year ago and Country Day won 42-7. The Yellowjackets dominated most of this fall too but have had to work through close wins the last two weeks against Detroit U-D Jesuit and Temperance Bedford.
Others that caught my eye: Allendale (7-2) at Wyoming Kelloggsville (8-1), Grand Rapids South Christian (5-4) at Benton Harbor (9-0), Flint Powers Catholic (5-4) at Lake Fenton (8-1), St. Clair Shores South Lake (7-2) at Marysville (9-0).
Division 5
Grand Rapids West Catholic (7-2) at Lansing Catholic (8-1)
A rematch of a Division 5 Semifinal from last season kicks off opening night, with more familiar faces on the Falcons’ side but offensive weapons of similar skills leading both. Quarterback Gaetano Vallone and running back/previous quarterback David Fox are the recognizable names from last year’s playoff run, while Lansing Catholic quarterback Michael Lynn has stepped in this season to provide similar run/pass dual threat ability. West Catholic is coming off a tough three-point loss to Allendale last week that cost the Falcons an outright O-K Blue title, and they face the prospect of three road games to get back to the Semifinals. Lansing Catholic’s only loss was by a point in Week 4 to rival Portland, which plays on the other side of this District bracket.
Others that caught my eye: Clare (8-1) at Remus Chippewa Hills (8-1), Saginaw Swan Valley (6-3) at Freeland (9-0), Buchanan (5-3) 56.069 at Dowagiac (6-3), Algonac (8-1) 81.667 at Detroit Denby (8-1).
Division 6
Watervliet (7-2) at Jackson Lumen Christi (7-2)
Watervliet has scored at a school record-setting pace the last two seasons, averaging 52 points per game in 2015 and 55 this fall – with 30 and 58 in its losses. The Panthers will get the chance to see how that prowess transfers against an opponent that’s seen and contained its share of strong offenses. The Titans have given up just fewer than 17 points per game against a schedule that’s included four playoff teams and a couple more that contended for bids.
Others that caught my eye: Montague (7-2) at Kent City (7-2), Montrose (6-3) at Laingsburg (8-1), Constantine (6-3) at Schoolcraft (9-0), Boyne City (6-3) at Calumet (8-1) on Saturday.
Division 7
Madison Heights Madison (6-3) vs. Detroit Loyola (7-2), Saturday at Hazel Park
Neither of these teams would be a surprise finalist at Ford Field next month; Loyola is a regular on championship weekend and claimed a Detroit Catholic League AA title this fall, while Madison shared the Macomb Area Conference Silver title with teams playing in the Division 3 and Division 4 brackets. The Bulldogs have reached the Semifinals each of the last four seasons, while Madison is seeking its first run that deep since 2007 – but has played in Division 5 and 6 over the last decade.
Others that caught my eye: Gwinn (6-3) at Iron Mountain (7-2), Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (7-2) at Ubly (9-0), Springport (7-2) at Concord (7-2), Clinton (6-3) at Sand Creek (8-1).
Division 8
Saginaw Nouvel (6-3) at Breckenridge (9-0)
Breckenridge already has achieved the most incredible turnaround in MHSAA playoff-era history, becoming the first team to from 0-9 (in 2015) to 9-0. The Huskies have accomplished this following a sophomore quarterback who should keep the program rolling forward. Nouvel, meanwhile, has played itself into a sixth playoff berth over the last seven seasons, with a big win over Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart in Week 9 getting the Panthers back in the hunt. The Irish are the only common opponent between the two; Nouvel won 35-7, while Breckenridge won 40-32 but way back in Week 3 as it was just starting to catch stride.
Others that caught my eye: Mendon (7-2) vs. St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic (8-1) at Bridgman, Pittsford (6-3) at Morenci (6-3), Iron River West Iron County (6-3) at Norway (7-2), Clarkston Everest Collegiate (7-2) at Waterford Our Lady (6-3) on Saturday.
8-Player
Lawrence (8-1) at Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (9-0) at Wyoming Lee
Tri-unity Christian is welcomed to its first playoffs tonight by having to face 2014 champion Lawrence – but should feel pretty good about that match-up after downing the Tigers 53-14 in Week 7. That was Lawrence’s only loss, and it’s beaten two other playoff teams over the last four weeks. But the Tigers must score; their 14 points against the Defenders were the most given up this season by Tri-unity, which is allowing only 4.7 points per game.
Others that caught my eye: Cedarville (6-3) at Engadine (9-0). Owendale-Gagetown (8-1) at New Haven Merritt (9-0).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: St. Joseph will kick off its ninth playoff appearance over the last 11 seasons tonight against Stevensville Lakeshore, which beat the Bears 31-12 in Week 4. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)