Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Week 8 in Review
October 17, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
On one hand, this weekend was the second-to-last of a football regular season that seemed this fall to roll by as quickly as ever.
On the other, this weekend was just the start of the second half of the 14-week Michigan high school football season that finishes up in six weeks at Ford Field – and 174 teams have clinched opportunities to continue on the hunt for an MHSAA title.
This annually is one of the most important weeks of the season; more than 600 teams finish up regular-season play, and Sunday we'll announce the 256-team 11-player playoff field and 16 teams that will advance in 8-player. We'll talk about that more as this week goes on. But we'll start with the highlights of all that was Week 8 below.
Bay & Thumb
Flint Carman-Ainsworth 34, Midland Dow 27
The Cavaliers (6-2) bounced back from a 1-2 start to go undefeated in winning the Saginaw Valley League Blue title, but had to beat co-leader Dow in the final game to finish the run. Carman-Ainsworth last won a league title in 2013, but had finished fifth and then fourth in the SVL Red over the last two seasons while Dow was hoping for a third straight Blue title. Click for more from the Flint Journal.
Also noted:
Richmond 28, Algonac 13 – For the second straight season, this matchup decided at least partially the Blue Water Area Conference title; for the second straight season, Richmond (7-1) beat Algonac (7-1), this time to win the league outright.
Bay City Central 17, Saginaw Heritage 14 – The Wolves (5-3) held on against the Hawks (3-5) to edge closer to a first playoff berth since 2007, and can clinch a spot this week against rival Bay City Western.
Ubly 54, Harbor Beach 12 – The Bearcats (8-0) won the Greater Thumb Conference East title outright while guaranteeing their best season finish since 2010 and sending Harbor Beach to 4-4.
Marysville 28, St. Clair 27 – The Macomb Area Conference Gold champion Vikings (8-0) guaranteed their best record since 2011 and have a chance to go 9-0 for the first time since 2003 after just edging St. Clair (4-4).
Greater Detroit
Utica Eisenhower 38, Warren Mott 6
The Eagles (8-0) couldn’t clinch the Macomb Area Conference Red title outright until this final league game, but did so comfortably after jumping out to a 24-0 lead. Five of six teams in the league are still alive for playoff berths – Eisenhower and Mott (6-2) have clinched, and Romeo, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley and Macomb Dakota can get in with wins this week – which makes Eisenhower’s first league title since 2011 all the more impressive. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.
Also noted:
Birmingham Brother Rice 20, Traverse City Central 17 (3OT) – The Warriors (5-3) kept themselves alive to return to the playoffs by handing Central (7-1) its first loss with a marathon effort.
Dearborn 28, Dearborn Fordson 23 – This matchup of neighborly rivals also ended up as a matchup of Western Wayne Athletic Conference divisional champs; Dearborn (7-1) broke a three-game losing streak against the Tractors (7-1).
Clarkston 45, Lake Orion 16 – Despite a Week 2 overtime loss to Southfield Arts & Technology, Clarkston (6-2) stormed back to earn a share of the Oakland Activities Association Red title in part because Lake Orion (5-3) handed the Warriors a league loss in Week 5.
Warren Michigan Collegiate 34, Harper Woods Chandler Park 22 – The Cougars (7-1) clinched the Charter School Conference championship for the first time since 2011 as these two met to decide the league title for the third straight year; Chandler Park (5-3) has the week off but will make the playoffs with five wins in eight games.
Mid-Michigan
Grand Ledge 31, East Lansing 28
The Comets (7-1) jumped to an early lead and saw four players score as they stayed just ahead of East Lansing to clinch the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title outright for the second straight season. East Lansing (5-3) had fallen to Jackson in its league opener but had a chance to create a shared championship with a victory. Grand Ledge’s only loss this season was on opening night, by seven, to Hudsonville. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Clare 31, Beaverton 14 – The Pioneers (7-1) earned a share of their ninth Jack Pine Conference championship in 10 seasons while putting the Beavers (5-3) in a must-win situation this week.
Fowlerville 30, Corunna 15 – The Gladiators (6-2) secured their first playoff berth since 2010, also the last season they won at least six games; Corunna fell to 6-2 as well but had already clinched a spot.
DeWitt 48, Menominee 14 – In a battle of annual Ford Field hopefuls, DeWitt (7-1) became the first this season to hold the Maroons (7-1) to fewer than 28 points.
Brighton 41, Howell 20 – The Bulldogs (7-1) staved off the Highlanders (5-3) to win the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West outright and earn this week’s Lakes final berth against Walled Lake Western.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Frankfort 28, Charlevoix 0
The Panthers (8-0) repeated at Northern Michigan Football Conference Legends division champions with their second straight shutout and third this season. They earned a share and can clinch outright this week against Onekama. The win also extended Frankfort’s best start since 2004, the last time the team finished a perfect regular season. Charlevoix (6-2) still can finish with its most wins since 2006 with another this week against Mesick. Click for more from 9&10 News.
Also noted:
Johannesburg-Lewiston 30, East Jordan 28 – The Cardinals (4-4) kept themselves in the hunt for a sixth straight playoff berth while also forcing East Jordan (4-4) into hoping for an at-large bid.
Harbor Springs 38, Gaylord St. Mary 24 – In what could be considered an upset, Harbor Springs (4-4) actually moved past St. Mary (6-2) in the NMFC Legacy standings with a third straight win.
Cadillac 26, Manistee 22 – With one-loss Traverse City Central and a shot at a share of the Big North Conference title up this week, Cadillac (6-2) was wise to get playoff qualification out of the way with a close win over Manistee (4-4).
Whittemore-Prescott 14, Hillman 0 – The Cardinals (5-3) kept themselves alive for an automatic berth to their 10th straight playoffs, but Hillman (4-4) will need a win and some help to qualify for the 11th straight season.
Southeast & Border
Ottawa Lake Whiteford 48, Sand Creek 20
Whiteford (8-0) closed out its first perfect run through the Tri-County Conference since joining the league in 1975 and set itself up for its first perfect regular season since 1965. The Bobcats have won five straight over Sand Creek, which still is enjoying its best season since 2005. Click for more from the Toledo Blade.
Also noted:
Brooklyn Columbia Central 28, Dundee 26 – The Golden Eagles (6-2) clinched back-to-back playoff berths for the first time in program history while eliminating Dundee (3-5) from postseason consideration.
Ida 52, Hillsdale 13 – The Bluestreaks (7-1) came up big against a dangerous opponent in Hillsdale (4-4) to remain tied for first with Hudson in the Lenawee County Athletic Association with a game to play.
Monroe Jefferson 20, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 14 – The Bears (4-4) guaranteed their best finish since 2011 and gave themselves a chance at making the playoffs for the first time since 2006 while also putting the Falcons (4-4) in a tougher spot as they go for a 13th berth in 14 seasons.
Michigan Center 24, Grass Lake 22 – In arguably the night’s biggest upset statewide, Michigan Center (5-3) gave itself a chance to earn a playoff berth this week and gave Napoleon a share of the Cascades Conference title by dealing co-champion Grass Lake (7-1) its first loss.
Southwest Corridor
Berrien Springs 33, Buchanan 27 (OT)
A two-point loss to Buchanan kept Berrien Springs from winning the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph White title last season, but the Shamrocks finished the run this time after coming back from nine down in the fourth quarter to force overtime. Berrien Springs (5-2) also clinched a playoff berth because it has an eight-game schedule; Buchanan (4-3) also is playing eight games and must beat Niles Brandywine this week to get in automatically. Click for more from the South Bend Tribune.
Also noted:
Battle Creek Harper Creek 21, Marshall 20 – The Beavers (7-1) bounced back from their only loss to just edge Marshall (4-4) and keep a share of the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference championship, with Jackson Lumen Christi securing the other half.
Benton Harbor 47, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 21 – The Tigers (8-1) tied their highest win total since 1985 in sending Notre Dame Prep to 4-4.
Schoolcraft 20, Constantine 10 – The Eagles (8-0) got by far their best game of the season from the old rival Falcons (5-3) in a matchup of Southwestern Athletic Conference divisional champions.
Edwardsburg 38, Three Rivers 0 – Make that 28 straight Wolverine Conference wins, four straight league titles (after clinching a share), and three straight shutouts for Edwardsburg (8-0), which has beaten Three Rivers (6-2) in five straight.
Upper Peninsula
Norway 25, Gwinn 2
Norway will need help to claim a share of the Mid-Peninsula Conference title – leader Negaunee can clinch outright this week against two-win Ishpeming Westwood. But the Knights (7-1) have equaled their most victories since 2010 and with another will guarantee their best finish since 2006. Gwinn (5-3) must beat Ishpeming this week to clinch a first playoff berth since 1999. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Also noted:
Iron River West Iron County 34, Hancock 7 – The Wykons (5-3) remain alive for an automatic berth with L’Anse (2-6) up next; Hancock (4-4) lost that automatic berth chance and must beat rival Houghton (3-5) this week to have an at-large shot.
St. Ignace 24, Ishpeming 16 – The Saints (7-1) avenged last season’s six-point loss to the Hematites (3-4), who must win this week to have a chance at extending their 14-season playoff streak.
Lake Linden-Hubbell 24, Felch North Dickinson 6 – The Broncos (8-0) clinched a share of the Mid-Eastern Conference title and sent North Dickinson (5-3) out of second place and into a must-win situation.
Kingsford 43, Gladstone 14 – The Flivvers (6-2) clinched their second straight playoff berth and fourth in five seasons while knocking Gladstone (3-5) out of consideration.
West Michigan
Muskegon Oakridge 31, Montague 28
Oakridge is another that enjoyed revenge and a league title celebration Friday. The Eagles (8-0) dominated the West Michigan Conference last season before losing to Montague (6-2) by seven in the final league game and finishing second to the Wildcats. This time, Oakridge hung on by scoring the final 17 points including the winning field goal with 25 seconds to play to claim the championship outright. Click for more from the Local Sports Journal.
Also noted:
Byron Center 62, Zeeland East 14 – One of the most competitive league races in all of Michigan will go at least in part to Byron Center(7-1), which clinched a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green title while sending East (6-2) into a tie for third.
Grand Rapids West Catholic 20, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 3 – By many accounts, this was closer than the score indicates; West Catholic now owns a share of the O-K Blue title and has given up only 17 points over five league games after holding GRCC (7-1) 18 below its previous season low.
Lowell 41, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern 34 – The comeback Red Arrows (8-0) were down 11 this time before coming back to clinch the O-K White championship and send Forest Hills Northern to 4-4.
Wyoming 20, Greenville 13 – The Wolves (5-3) pulled to within a win of clinching the first playoff berth in the program’s five-year history and kept Greenville (5-3) from clinching as well.
8-Player
Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 8, Fife Lake Forest Area 6
Tri-unity (8-0) assuredly will make the MHSAA playoffs for the first time – the Defenders have the second-highest playoff point average in 8-player. This win also gave them the Midwest Central Conference championship outright over second-place Fife Lake Forest Area (6-2), which is now playing for one of the final spots in the postseason field. Click for more from the Cadillac News.
Also noted:
Powers North Central 76, Rapid River 18 – Well, the reigning champion Jets look ready for the playoffs with three straight games with more than 75 points, although Rapid River (5-3) did score more than any opponent had since Sept. 9.
Pickford 44, Cedarville 14 – The first-season 8-player Panthers (7-1) handed Cedarville (6-2) the latter’s second straight loss to move into second in the Bridge Alliance.
Webberville 46, Morrice 14 – The Spartans (6-2) battled through a heart-wrenching Friday to win a key game that may have cemented their spot in the playoff field.
PHOTO: Muskegon Oakridge players celebrate during Friday's West Michigan Conference title-clinching win over Montague. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)