Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

Marine City Focused on Comeback Quest

By Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com

October 11, 2016

Ryan Alexander was in a familiar place this past Thursday.

The Marine City senior running back was at East China Stadium, the junior varsity team on the field in front of him playing against Warren Woods-Tower and a group of junior program football players behind him, preparing to get onto the big field and play at halftime.

He and his Mariners teammates were coming off a win against archrival St. Clair, and had just finished their last practice in preparation for a Week 7 game against Warren Woods-Tower, one they would also win.

All of that is familiar for Alexander and the Mariners. The start of the season, however, was far from it. 

“It was different than anything I’ve ever experienced,” Alexander said of Marine City’s first 0-4 start since 1971. “I’ve been on varsity for three years now, and to start 0-4, it was the first time I’ve ever felt anything like that since I’ve been in the program, since I’ve been in Marine City.

“It was a new feeling, but it was also a sense of motivation. It pushed me harder knowing that we had something to prove and that everyone was doubting us because we were 0-4. It’s hard to go through, but I think it made us a better team.”

Alexander and his teammates are on the road back, sitting at 3-4 and eyeing two more wins which could possibly preserve the school’s streak of qualifying for the postseason, which started in 1998. He said getting there would show those junior program players that by coming together as a team, you can accomplish anything.

The Mariners have already shown their coach plenty.

“I wondered, because our program has had so much success, what would happen if we had a bad start like this, how would that team be and how difficult would it be to coach,” Marine City coach Ron Glodich, who is in his fifth season as head coach after serving as a longtime assistant in the program. “What I found is these kids are incredible. Their perseverance and their work ethic has not changed. Nobody has quit, even though I challenge them week in and week out, nobody has quit. The bigger the challenge I give them, the bigger they step up.”

‘We live football’

Football in Marine City has a bit of a “Friday Night Lights” feel to it.

The town with a population of a little more than 4,000 essentially shuts down on game nights to support its team. Not long ago, it moved trick-or-treating because it conflicted with a Friday night playoff game. When the team went to Ford Field for MHSAA championship games in 2007, 2011 and 2013, it filled its entire side of the lower bowl with fans clad in orange and black.

“It’s a football crazy town,” Alexander said. “We live football.”

Kids grow up wanting to be Mariners as much as they grow up wanting to be Wolverines or Spartans, and you can’t even go to a JV game without seeing groups of them playing a side game of touch – or tackle – at East China Stadium.

“They were always winning, ever since I’ve been a kid and ever since my parents have been around,” senior lineman Andrew Steinmetz said. “It’s a great feeling to grow up here, live here and then play here.”

Always winning isn’t hyperbole, especially for someone Steinmetz’s age. The playoff streak is only scratching the surface of the Mariners’ success in the past few decades.

The program won MHSAA championships in 2007 and 2013, and – prior to this year – had lost more than two games in a season only three times since 1992.

From 2006 through 2009, Marine City had three undefeated regular seasons, and in the only exception, it went 13-1 with a Division 4 championship. The Mariners’ last losing season came in 1982.

There have been stars who went onto play Division I college football – Brendon Kay, a 2008 graduate went to Cincinnati and was the Most Valuable Player of the Belk Bowl, and Anthony Scarcelli, who was the Associated Press Division 3-4 Player of the Year in 2011 and is currently a senior on Central Michigan University’s football team – but most of Marine City’s success has come thanks to players who don’t have a recruiting site ranking.

“When you mention the name Marine City outside the area, it’s common for someone to say, ‘Oh, you’ve got a great football program,’” Glodich said. “And we’re proud of that. It’s been a long time since we built it, and a lot of people are proud of it in the area and they come out to support it. It’s nice that that’s linked to the town, and that people believe we have a great football program. And I believe we do.”

In Marine City, even 8-1 teams catch flack. At 0-4, the loud minority of the fan base gets more vocal.

“As any coach who doesn’t win, there are critics out there,” Glodich said. “I happened to get a letter and I shared it with the kids. I told them, ‘We’re all in this together. You’re being criticized in the stands, I’m being criticized, so understand that we’re all in this together and it’s all about getting better.’

“The good news is, I’m at the point in my career where I know that this staff does a great job. So when you get letters like that, you chuckle and say, ‘OK, this person is venting, but they don’t know what the hell they’re talking about.’ And I would tell that person if they ever had the guts to look me in the eye, I would tell them, ‘You don’t know what the hell you’re talking about.’”

Glodich’s players said they were able to shut out the outside noise, for the most part, and anything that did enter their brains was used as motivation. Alexander said it went in one ear and out the other, because practicing with a clear mind was much more necessary than reacting to insults.

Even better, however, was the fact there was much more support than derision. Marine City may be football crazy and unaccustomed to waking up on a Saturday after a loss, but its love for football goes beyond a stunning win-loss record.

“The parents and the past players, they really had our backs,” senior lineman Tom Kaminski said. “(Former player) Ethan Cleve made a nice Facebook message on the Marine City football fans page, and (former player) Jarrett Mathison was saying, ‘Don’t worry about it, it will get better.’”

Writing the final chapter

The message within the team was similar to Mathison’s, but the players knew they were the ones who would have to make things better. 

“A lot of it came from themselves,” Glodich said. “After that fourth loss, we challenged them and said you guys make a decision of how you want to move forward. That’s where your senior leadership and the guys that really care about the program, they kind of step forward and they rally the troops. We challenged them come Monday, and they responded to the challenge.”

The change could be seen in practice, and it translated into a 37-29 win against Madison Heights Madison in Week 5. That was followed by a 27-6 win against St. Clair in Week 6 and most recently a 49-31 win against Warren Woods-Tower in Week 7.

“We just had to put our heads down and keep fighting for it, because we knew we were better than what we were,” Kaminski said. “It’s big on your shoulders, because everyone’s used to 9-0 teams here, so that was a big wake-up call, but I think we’ve got it.”

As stated above, while this is a position Glodich never wanted to be in, he said he’s always wondered what would happen if a Marine City team had a start like this one. He’s wondered how the players would react. He’s wondered how difficult it would be to coach a team that no longer held its playoff destiny in its own hands before the midpoint of the season. 

“I’m amazed that these kids are working this hard – I don’t know if any other team that was 0-4 is working as hard as we do,” Glodich said. “It’s just a credit to these kids and their background; they’re not afraid to work. The kids that come to school here in this community are not afraid to work, and that’s why I’m one of the luckiest guys in the state to be able to coach in this community.”

The 0-4 start may have put the Mariners on the brink of playoff extinction, but their opponents in weeks 1-4 could wind up helping push them over the top when it comes to playoff selection, should Marine City get to 5-4. 

Algonac, Port Huron Northern, Detroit Loyola and Marysville were a combined 25-3 through seven weeks, with one of those losses a Northern defeat against Marysville. 

The Mariners are taking the one-game-at-a-time approach to the end of the season, but they know that can help. They know they can do something special to close it out, and accomplish something no Marine City team has done before – rebound from a start that could cause some to pack it in.

Glodich said he can’t look past the next game, but admits he and his coaches have talked to the players about writing the final chapter in their book, and how they want their story to end.

Alexander has already started writing in his head.

“It would mean the world (to finish 5-4) especially because it’s my senior year and I’d love to end on a high note,” he said. “I’d love to be the team that started 0-4, won the last five games and then proved what we have in the playoffs. We have a good team, we have a good shot.

“We just want to get to 5-4. We don’t really focus on anything else (in terms of playoff points). If we get there, it doesn’t matter, we’ll be happy.”

Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Marine City's MJ Frank cuts through an opening against Marysville this season. (Middle) A group of Mariners surround and take down a Port Huron Northern ball carrier. (Photos courtesy of the Marine City football program.)