Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Week 4 Preview
September 15, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Predicting anything after three weeks of a high school football season is a fruitless endeavor, as so much can change over the next six weeks of play.
But no fewer than 16 leagues across Michigan could eventually see this fall’s championship races affected significantly by what plays out on fields over the next 48 hours.
This week’s “Drive for Detroit” preview – powered by MI Student Aid – highlights a handful of key matchups and mentions many more below; we’ll discuss all of the ramifications that emerge in Monday’s weekend in review.
(Games below are Friday; for the full weekend schedule including Thursday and Saturday games, visit the MHSAA Score Center.)
Bay & Thumb
Alma (3-0) at Freeland (3-0)
Freeland is 7-1 against Alma over the teams’ last eight meetings and off to another fast start after making Division 5 Regional Finals and losing only one regular-season game over the last two seasons. But Alma beat Saginaw Swan Valley last week for the first time since 2011 to earn a 3-0 start for the first time since 2012 – the same season the Panthers got that most recent win against tonight’s Tri-Valley Conference Central opponent.
Others that caught my eye: Roscommon (3-0) at Beaverton (2-1), Almont (2-1) at Croswell-Lexington (2-1), Linden (2-1) at Flushing (2-1), Saginaw Nouvel (2-1) at Bay City John Glenn (2-1).
Greater Detroit
West Bloomfield (2-1) at Farmington Hills Harrison (2-1)
These Oakland County neighbors re-stoked their rivalry last season for the first time since 2006, with West Bloomfield claiming a 20-14 Week 9 win. The Lakers are following the strong arm of quarterback Bryce Veasley, who has thrown for 543 yards and five touchdowns over his team’s last two games. But he’s taking on a defense this week that has given up more than 20 points only three times – twice to East Kentwood and the third in a Division 2 Semifinal – over its last 17 games.
Others that caught my eye: Detroit East English (2-1) at Detroit Denby (3-0), St. Clair Shores South Lake (3-0) at Warren Fitzgerald (3-0), Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (2-1) at Utica Eisenhower (3-0), Birmingham Brother Rice (2-1) at Warren DeLaSalle (2-1).
Mid-Michigan
Lansing Catholic (3-0) at Portland (3-0)
This Capital Area Activities Conference White rivalry game is always a matchup of differing styles, and the result has been an even split of their last eight meetings. The Cougars’ wide open attack is led this year by dual-threat quarterback Michael Lynn III, with Portland’s physical running game paced by Logan Lefke among a collection of backs. Lynn threw for 161 yards and ran for 80 and two touchdowns in last week’s win over Everett, but the Raiders didn’t give up a point over the last two weeks to Hillsdale and Fowlerville – and are able to control the clock by grinding out yards on the ground.
Others that caught my eye: DeWitt (2-1) at Mason (3-0), Lake City (2-1) at Beal City (1-2), Flint Hamady (2-1) at New Lothrop (3-0), Bath (2-1) at Pewamo-Westphalia (3-0).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Portage Central (3-0) at Traverse City Central (3-0)
Some potential league title-deciding games from this region are mentioned below, but it’s tough not to highlight a matchup of undefeated powers who went a combined 17-3 a year ago. Traverse City Central is coming off an emotional 10-8 win over rival West last week and is giving up a meager 174 yards of offense per game. That sounds a lot like Portage Central, which downed rival Stevensville Lakeshore 37-0 in Week 3 and has given up eight points this season.
Others that caught my eye: Leroy Pine River (2-1) at McBain (3-0), St. Ignace (2-1) at East Jordan (3-0), AuGres-Sims (3-0) at Lincoln Alcona (2-1), Maple City Glen Lake (2-1) at Onekama (3-0).
Southeast & Border
Temperance Bedford (3-0) at Saline (3-0)
The difference in Bedford this season can be measured in part by its results against the same early opponents over the last two years; the Mules have outscored Toledo St. Francis de Sales, Fenton and Ann Arbor Pioneer by a combined 117-70 this fall after those three outscored Bedford by a combined 109-76 in kicking the Mules off to an 0-3 start a year ago. Next up is Saline, which beat Bedford 43-0 in 2015 and just got past winless Ann Arbor Skyline 24-21 last week – but also is 26-2 without a regular-season loss since falling on opening night in 2014.
Others that caught my eye: Ida (3-0) at Brooklyn Columbia Central (2-1), Hudson (3-0) at Dundee (2-1), Manchester (2-1) at Grass Lake (3-0), Sand Creek (3-0) at Morenci (2-1).
Southwest Corridor
Paw Paw (2-1) at Edwardsburg (3-0)
The Eddies are absolutely rolling, again, with three wins by a combined 145-14 score to take the lone lead in the Wolverine Conference. But Paw Paw has come closer than most over the last few seasons, and after Vicksburg in Week 3 of 2014 was the next most-recent team, in Week 9 of 2012, to hand Edwardsburg a regular-season defeat. The Redskins did drop a 14-6 heartbreaker to Sturgis last week, but scored first and outgained the Trojans before a late touchdown led to the final result.
Others that caught my eye: Niles (3-0) at Portage Northern (1-2), St. Joseph (3-0) at Stevensville Lakeshore (2-1), Berrien Springs (1-1) at Cassopolis (3-0), Sturgis (2-1) at Three Rivers (2-1).
Upper Peninsula
Negaunee (3-0) at Iron Mountain (3-0)
This may decide, and at the least will play a major role, in determining the Mid-Peninsula Conference title winner. Iron Mountain is back in the mix thanks to a Week 1 win over three-time reigning champion Ishpeming and has to be confident again having split the last six meetings with the powerful Miners. Negaunee has finished league runner-up two of the last three seasons and will bring a bullish attack that’s run for nearly 900 yards already this season; Neal Violetta had 475 yards and five touchdowns on the ground and Shane Ring has run for 228 yards and five scores.
Others that caught my eye: Newberry (3-0) at Felch North Dickinson (2-1), Calumet (2-1) at Houghton (3-0), Escanaba (3-0) at Marquette (1-2), Ishpeming (1-1) at Ishpeming Westwood (1-2).
West Michigan
Grandville (3-0) at Hudsonville (3-0)
Not only is Grandville off to its best on-field start since 2001 (the Bulldogs opened 2012 3-0 but received a forfeit win), but they’ve dominated giving up only 22 points total and scoring at least 44 in all three of their first games. The numbers don’t flash as much for Hudsonville because of the quality opponents the Eagles have beaten, including handing the only losses so far to 2015 playoff teams Grand Ledge and East Kentwood. The winner tonight will earn an enviable, although not entirely secure position atop the competitive Ottawa-Kent Conference Red.
Others that caught my eye: Grand Rapids South Christian (2-1) at Grand Rapids Christian (3-0), Byron Center (3-0) at Muskegon (2-1), Ludington (3-0) at Muskegon Catholic Central (3-0), Rockford (1-2) at Caledonia (1-2).
8-Player
Peck (3-0) at Deckerville (3-0)
This is the top 8-player rivalry of a strong 8-player thumb area, and Peck no doubt has been aching to get another shot at the Eagles after falling to them 50-6 in Week 8 and then 30-6 in the first round of last season’s playoffs. Deckerville is off to another dominating start, outscoring its first three opponents by a combined 128-20 after reaching MHSAA Semifinals the last two years.
Others that caught my eye: Onaway (2-1) at Cedarville (3-0), Rudyard (2-1) at Posen (2-1).
Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO: Alma ran past Birch Run in Week 1 and hopes to move to 4-0 this weekend against Freeland. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)