Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Week 1 in Review
August 29, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Upsets and comebacks, broken win streaks and broken hearts mending were among the storylines most prevalent from another highlight-filled first weekend of Michigan high school football.
Two reigning MHSAA champions – Romeo and Ishpeming – fell in their first games after ending last season at Ford Field. Another 2015 champ, Detroit Martin Luther King, returned to the field this fall victorious but without coach Dale Harvel, who died unexpectedly in July. He was with his players however, his name across all of their backs.
Each week during the regular season and playoffs, we’ll look back at the games from every region of our state and 8-player and discuss which results could have the biggest impacts as we move ahead. Games are organized regionally by hometown of the winning team.
And now, our season debut.
Bay & Thumb
Algonac 7, Marine City 2
Odd score, but it was a pretty impressive defensive display by an Algonac unit that had five shutouts a year ago. Last season’s 19-18 opening-night win over powerhouse Marine City seemed to spur the Muskrats to their best finish ever, and they’ll be hoping for the same momentum after scoring the game’s lone touchdown midway through the third quarter. Click for more from the Port Huron Times Herald.
Also noted:
Byron 29, Montrose 27 – The Eagles ended last season with a 55-18 Pre-District playoff loss to the Rams, but came back for what’s believed to be the school’s first win over Montrose.
Bay City Central 13, Swartz Creek 12 – The Wolves became the 12th team in Michigan high school football history to win 500 games, running their record since 1922 to 500-321-31.
Midland Dow 41, Mount Pleasant 14 – The Chargers ran off 10 straight wins after opening last season with a 14-point loss to the Oilers, and appear ready to keep that run going.
Almont 35, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 26 – The Raiders couldn’t have prepped better for next week’s matchup with Algonac than by beating a Seminary team that’s gone a combined 21-4 over the last two seasons.
Greater Detroit
Macomb Dakota 35, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 28
Dakota earned new coach Greg Baur arguably the most impressive win of opening weekend as it downed the two-time reigning Division 3 champion Eaglets. Dakota quarterback Brett Droski connected with receiver Jaylen Hall on two long scores as the Cougars came back from an early deficit. A year ago, Dakota opened by downing then-reigning Division 1 champ Clarkston. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.
Also noted:
Oxford 27, Romeo 26 – Especially after going 3-6 a year ago, knocking off the reigning Division 1 champion was Oxford’s best win in a few seasons (and its second over Romeo in three.)
Dearborn Fordson 40, Canton 35 – The Tractors avenged an opening-night loss to the Chiefs last season by rallying from 21 points down at Wayne State.
Clarkston 28, Lapeer 7 – JT King ran for two of Clarkston’s four rushing touchdowns as it handed Lapeer the first regular-season loss of the Lightning’s now three-season history.
Utica Eisenhower 28, Plymouth 7 – Eisenhower earned some momentum to take into this week's Macomb Area Conference Red tilt against league favorite Dakota by downing a playoff team from last season.
Mid-Michigan
Ithaca 31, Clare 28
Ithaca hasn’t had a scare during the regular season in a long time – and the Yellowjackets kept their regular-season winning streak alive at 56 straight. Ithaca had beaten Clare by four touchdowns just a year ago, but this time the reigning Division 6 champion had to survive a comeback attempt by the Pioneers. Click to read more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.
Also noted:
East Lansing 42, St. Johns 7 – The Trojans broke a two-year opening-night losing streak to the Redwings as reigning Lower Peninsula Division 1 110 hurdles champion Kentre Patterson showed why he might be the Lansing area’s most exciting player this fall.
Brighton 14, Detroit East English 8 – The Bulldogs took a two-score lead into the fourth quarter and held on in a Michigan Stadium matchup of teams that both won nine games a year ago.
DeWitt 42, Linden 14 – The Panthers ran their opening-night winning streak against the Eagles to three after also beating Linden during the 2012 and 2013 playoffs.
Pewamo-Westphalia 30, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 20 – Add another couple of hundred yards to Jared Smith’s pursuit of the all-time career rushing record as he leads the reigning Division 7 runner-up Pirates.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City West 42, Midland 14
The Titans got a start on reversing last season’s sub-.500 finish by nearly reversing the score of last season’s opening-night 42-11 loss to the Chemics. West stacked up 391 total yards including 271 rushing on 45 carries and jumped out to a 21-0 lead and 35-7 advantage by halftime. The Titans were 4-5 in 2015, while Midland finished 7-3. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Cadillac 40, Big Rapids 6 – Cadillac’s first sub-.500 season since 2008 last fall started with a three-point loss to Big Rapids, but the Vikings put up points more like their one-loss teams of 2014 and 2013 in this victory.
Gaylord 41, Boyne City 32 – With Gaylord showing a few more new faces in key places, this result might have been a bit of a surprise – and was an impressive win for the Blue Devils against a Ramblers team that won 10 games a year ago.
Onekama 18, Hillman 0 – The Portagers are coming off two straight playoff appearances, but it’s still strong that they handed Hillman the latter’s first shutout since 2012.
Tawas 35, Lincoln Alcona 30 – Alcona bounced back from an down season in 2014 to return to the playoffs a year ago, and Tawas looks like a possibility to copy with a big win coming off last year’s 2-7 finish.
Southeast & Border
Grass Lake 32, Stockbridge 18
Grass Lake is seeking its 12th straight playoff appearance this fall, so it’s not like the Warriors haven’t won their share of big games over the years. But they still made quite a defensive stand, holding down a Stockbridge offense that has scored more than 400 points each of the last two seasons and is returning its quarterback and a top receiver this fall. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.
Also noted:
Clinton 48, Manchester 12 – The 115th meeting between these two was not nearly as close as the 114th, which also was won by Clinton, but by only a point.
Morenci 34, Pittsford 7 – If one game is an indication, the Bulldogs are coming in on a roll again with a second straight opening-night win over a Pittsford team coming off the playoffs.
Adrian Lenawee Christian 35, Britton Deerfield 34 – Returning after the best finish in 2015 of its eight-year history, Lenawee Christian hung on to get off to another good start.
Tecumseh 15, Harper Woods Chandler Park 14 – The Indians got a much-needed opening win heading into one of the most loaded schedules from this corner of the state.
Southwest Corridor
Benton Harbor 28, Marshall 7
The good times continue to roll for Benton Harbor. Last season was history-making as the Tigers secured their first playoff berth, but this win over Marshall actually made Benton Harbor 1-0 for the first time since 2011 – and came against a playoff team from a year ago. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Also noted:
Gobles 14, Delton Kellogg 13 (OT) – The Tigers made it two straight one-point opening-night wins in a row over Delton, this one secured with a two-point conversion in overtime.
Coldwater 33, Jackson 22 – These two both have come back from one-win seasons to make the playoffs over the last few years, but the Cardinals are still a little ahead of the Vikings as both surge forward.
Vicksburg 17, Dowagiac 7 – In a Wolverine Conference where teams play nine league games, this one right out of the gate could be a decider or at least influence the final championship result.
Stevensville Lakeshore 30, Battle Creek Central 13 – This win could prove especially important as Lakeshore goes for its 19th straight playoff appearance but faces what will likely be one of the strongest league schedules in Michigan, again.
Upper Peninsula
Iron Mountain 35, Ishpeming 24
After absorbing two losses – opening night and playoffs – to Ishpeming a year ago, Iron Mountain started the climb back against its longtime Week 1 foe by breaking the Hematites’ 27-game regular-season winning streak that dated back to 2012. The Mountaineers hadn’t beaten Ishpeming since opening night 2011, and Ishpeming – the reigning Division 7 champion – didn't lose at all in 13 tries in 2015. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Also noted:
Menominee 31, Marinette, Wis. 14 – The 110th meeting in the longest interstate rivalry involving a Michigan team moved the Maroons’ all-time edge to 53-50-7 in the series.
Sault Ste. Marie 13, Cheboygan 7 (OT) – Sault Ste. Marie is 1-0 after opening night for the first time since 2007 with its third win over the last four tries against Cheboygan.
Gwinn 36, Gladstone 16 – The Modeltowners won on opening night for only the third time over the last decade and with their most points in a game since Week 7 of 2014.
Lake Linden-Hubbell 28, Hancock 26 – The Lakes didn’t come close to having a regular-season scare going 9-0 in 2015, but stopped a two-point conversion late to survive this one.
West Michigan
Grand Rapids Catholic Central 27, East Grand Rapids 6
GRCC debuted Cougar stadium by breaking a three-year losing streak to opening-night rival East Grand Rapids. The Cougars scored twice on defense and a third time after an interception to put away the Pioneers, who like GRCC also won nine games last season. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Muskegon 51, Ann Arbor Pioneer 14 – Muskegon quarterback Kalil Pimpleton might be the player most people statewide want to see; he ran for two scores, threw two touchdown passes and caught one at Michigan Stadium.
Caledonia 55, Fenton 52 – The Scots gained the lead for good midway through the fourth quarter after the teams were tied at halftime at Grand Valley State University.
Hudsonville 21, Grand Ledge 14 – Holding off a Comets team that went 12-1 a year ago was a great way for the Eagles to start off a new season.
East Kentwood 31, Farmington Hills Harrison 24 – The Falcons added a second-straight seven-point opening-night win over Harrison, this time at Michigan Stadium.
8-player
Crystal Falls Forest Park 64, Rapid River 22
No team that’s made the switch from 11 to 8-player has brought as much championship success as three-time MHSAA title winner Forest Park did in making the move this fall. Its debut against annual power Rapid River could be a scary sign for opponents of what’s to come. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Also noted:
Pickford 56, Bellaire 6 – The Panthers did make the playoffs last season in their first of 8-player, but with a 37-26 loss to Bellaire, a regular contender in the Bridge Alliance race.
Camden-Frontier 86, Elyria Open Door Christian, Ohio 8 – The Redskins won for the first time since Week 8 of 2013, giving them immediate satisfaction in their first game of 8-player football.
PHOTO: Detroit Martin Luther King players wear jerseys showing the last name of late coach Dale Harvel during their Week 1 win over Southfield Arts & Technology. (Photo courtesy of Detroit Public School League.)