Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

King Completes Perfect Run on Final Play

November 27, 2015

By Bill Khan
Special for Second Half

DETROIT — Armani Posey was supposed to be a two-week stopgap at quarterback for Detroit Martin Luther King.

Two weeks turned into 11 weeks, building toward a championship finish for the ages. 

In a moment that was “The Catch” and “The Drive” all rolled into one, Posey heaved a 40-yard touchdown pass to senior receiver Donnie Corley on the final play of the game to give King a 40-38 victory over Lowell in the Division 2 title game Friday at Ford Field.

Lowell led 31-13 in the third quarter before Posey responded by throwing four of his record-tying five touchdown passes in the final 15:41 of the game. The final drive began with 37 seconds remaining at King's 3-yard line after a punt out of bounds and a penalty. 

It was a scenario tailor-made for John Elway — or Armani Posey.

"What happened today is a memory forever," Posey said. "I dreamed about that and went out there and did it today. I couldn't imagine that type of performance, but we got the job done. Shout-out to the O-line." 

When the starter was suspended for two weeks, King coach Dale Harvel was in search of a quarterback for the Week 4 game against Detroit Denby and the week 5 game against eventual Division 1 finalist Detroit Cass Tech. Harvel wanted a mature senior to, at the very least, manage an offense that is loaded with Division I college prospects. Posey turned into much more than a game manager.

"What we found out was he settled down everybody in the offense, because the first week we struggled a little bit against (Warren) DeLaSalle and struggled against East (English) Village," Harvel said. "We were able to win because we were playing good defense. He's been a settling effect on our offense and we couldn't go away from him, because we were in a rhythm with our offense. So, we stuck with him all year." 

Posey's first position was quarterback, but that was way back in his elementary school days playing in the Detroit Police Athletic League for the East Side Tigers. One of his teammates back in the day happened to be the young man with whom his legacy will forever be linked.

"He played quarterback when I played for the Tigers," Corley said. "He's always been a good quarterback. I didn't know he was going to play this well. He had five touchdowns for 300 yards today? That's amazing." 

After starting the game with three three-and-outs and his team falling behind 17-0, Posey finished 19 for 27 for 383 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. He broke the MHSAA Finals record of 335 yards set by Olivet's Jay Cousineau in the 2010 Division 5 Final. He matched the record of five touchdown passes shared by Macomb Dakota's Mitch Lovett (2007, Division 1) and Cass Tech's Jayru Campbell (2011, Division 1). Posey also ran seven times for 20 yards and a touchdown.

It took a rare defensive stop by King to put Posey and Corley in a position to produce a moment that will be talked about for decades. 

Lowell drove from its own 35 to King's 39 before its only negative play of the game, a 2-yard loss on a run by quarterback Ryan Stevens, forced only the second punt of the game for the Red Arrows. Stevens nailed the punt out of bounds at the 5 with 37 seconds left. An illegal procedure penalty on King before the first snap moved it back inside the 3.

"They battled, right down to where we punted the ball down to the 5 with (37) seconds on the clock," Lowell coach Noel Dean said. "I thought that would be a pretty good spot to be in. Credit them — they made the plays at the end." 

King made several plays on its way to the end zone. 

A 22-yard pass to Lavert Hill, a 10-yard pass to Corley and a 25-yard pass to Dontre Boyd got the ball to the Lowell 40 with 10 seconds left. Boyd had to watch the final play from the sidelines, having injured his shoulder after his catch on a tackle by Alex Anschutz. Boyd had 126 yards on five catches.

"He could've easily dropped the football," Harvel said. "He focused on that football and knew he was going to get hit — a good legal hit. He caught the football and made the play for a first down for us and made the opportunity to throw that pass to Donnie. All of his teammates understand what he sacrificed for his football team out there today." 

"To me, that was the biggest play of the game," said Corley, who was about to make the most memorable play of the 2015 season.

King had two shots at the end zone in the final 10 seconds. On the first play, Posey overthrew Ambry Thomas down the left side. Two seconds remained on the clock for a play that would make one team's dreams come true and crush another's. 

As King lined up for the final play, Corley was in single coverage on the left side. This was an inviting prospect for the Crusaders, considering Corley is being recruited by Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame and Ohio State.

Corley said the Lowell cornerback called for safety help over the top, but that the safety didn't hear in the instructions. 

"When we didn't see the safety move over, I was repeating, 'Throw it to Donnie, throw it to Donnie,'" Harvel said. "Nobody could hear me, but it was comforting to me to say that, even though nobody could hear me."

As Corley ran toward the left side of the end zone, Posey had time to heave the ball to his star receiver. Corley, who has a 37-inch vertical leap, won a jump ball against the corner who appeared to get a hand on the ball, then fell to the ground safely inbounds. 

"It was a beautiful ball," said Corley, who caught six passes for 108 yards and two touchdowns. "It couldn't have been any better. He threw it just inbounds and in the back of the end zone. I knew where I was on the field. I couldn't believe it — I'm not gonna lie. We fought back from 17-0 and we won."

It's only the second time that the winning score in an MHSAA championship game took place on the final play. Steve Mann caught a 17-yard touchdown pass from Charlie Johnson to give Detroit Country Day an 18-14 victory over Muskegon Catholic Central in the 1986 Class C title game. 

For most of the afternoon, this wasn't a championship game that appeared to be destined for a dramatic finish.

Max Dean's third touchdown run of the game, a 4-yarder with 8:24 left in the third quarter, gave Lowell a 31-13 lead. The Red Arrows had leads of 17-0 and 24-7 in the first half. 

A 25-yard touchdown pass from Posey to Corley with 3:41 left in the third quarter and a 41-yard pass from Posey to Thomas got King back in the game, down only 31-26 with 11:44 remaining.

Lowell responded with a 10-play, 73-yard drive that culminated with a 2-yard touchdown run by Stevens with 7:10 remaining. 

Aided by a personal foul for facemasking, King crept to within 38-34 on a 2-yard pass from Posey to Hill and a 2-point pass from Posey to Martell Pettaway with 4:42 to go.

Lowell got two first downs on its next possession, forcing the Crusaders to use their remaining timeouts. They were able to manage the clock well on the final drive, particularly when Hill gave up the opportunity for a few more yards to get out of bounds with 28 seconds left on the first play. The clock stopped temporarily when Corley's 10-yard catch got a first down. Boyd was on the field for a couple of minutes after being injured making his 25-yard catch, allowing King to discuss its options and be ready at the line when the clock started running as play resumed. 

Corley's catch gave King its second MHSAA championship, matching the achievement of the 2007 team. It was King's fourth victory of three points or fewer in a 14-0 season.

Lowell scored on its first four possessions before taking a knee to end the first half during its fifth, leading 17-0 before King even registered a first down. 

After getting first-and-goal at the King 5, Lowell settled for a 21-yard field goal by George Gonzales to open the scoring with 4:52 left in the first quarter.

A 36-yard pass to senior Gabe Steed was the key play on a 10-play, 70-yard scoring drive that ended with a 1-yard run by Dean with 11:03 left in the second quarter. 

A 62-yard pass to a wide-open David Kruse on Lowell's third drive set up a 4-yard touchdown run by Stevens with 7:02 left in the first half. At this point, Lowell had a 173-9 advantage in total offense and a 17-0 lead.

It appeared King would suffer its fourth straight three-and-out to start the game when an intentional grounding penalty left the Crusaders facing third-and-20 from their own 25. That's when King's explosive offense finally showed life, as Boyd had a 73-yard catch and run down to the Lowell 2. Two plays later, Posey scored on a 3-yard bootleg to the right, cutting Lowell's lead to 17-7 with 4:21 left in the first half. 

Lowell responded immediately, using a 66-yard pass to Sawyer Olesko to set up a 3-yard touchdown run by Dean with 1:53 to go in the first half, making it a 24-7 game.

King tightened the margin before the break, as Hill made an acrobatic 41-yard catch at the Lowell 12, then grabbed a 12-yard touchdown pass from Posey on the next play to cut Lowell's lead to 24-13 with 25 seconds left in the half. The extra point attempt failed. 

Lowell (12-2) used some trickery to build its lead to 31-13, with Nathan Stephens taking a short direct snap on a fourth-and-one punt and running 38 yards to the King 5. Two plays later, Dean scored his third touchdown from four yards out with 8:24 left in the third quarter.

Dean finished with 99 yards rushing and three touchdowns on 22 carries. Stevens was 6 for 9 for 186 yards, running 22 times for 66 yards and two touchdowns.

Click for the full box score.

The MHSAA Football Finals are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) Detroit Martin Luther King’s Donnie Corley pulls down a touchdown pass on the final play of the game to give the Crusaders the lead and win. (Middle) King players celebrate their second MHSAA championship.