Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Playoffs R2 in Review
November 9, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The second week of the MHSAA football playoffs again was filled with rematches of some of the regular-season’s most touted games.
And the mix of results – close wins, comebacks and victories by the avenged – surely will impact which teams appear in nine championship games later this month.
Below are results that stuck out most as 136 turned into 68.
Division 1
Saline 27, Ann Arbor Pioneer 23
Pioneer made this rematch of Southeastern Conference Red rivals more like the game it was expected to be Week 6, when Saline (10-0) won 37-21. The Pioneers (7-4) led into the third quarter and early in the fourth, but the reigning Division 1 runner-up earned its second straight District title with a late score and defensive stand. Click for more from AnnArbor.com.
Also noted:
Romeo 34, Lapeer 14 – The Bulldogs (10-1) advanced to a Regional Final for the first time since 1992, with Lapeer receiving its first and only loss in the District Final for the second straight year.
Rockford 21, Hudsonville 13 – The Rams (8-3) downed Hudsonville (7-4) for the second time in three weeks; the first win gave Rockford a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red championship, and this win earned a first District title since 2012.
Grand Ledge 45, Brighton 21 – Grand Ledge (11-0) earned its first District title since 2005 against a Brighton team that at 9-2 won its most games since that same season.
Canton 34, Northville 27 – The Chiefs (9-2) rode a dominating ground game to a second straight District title and handed Northville (10-1) the only loss during a season in which it set a school record for wins.
Division 2
Muskegon 21, Muskegon Mona Shores 10
The second matchup in four weeks between these rivals was just as entertaining. After falling 21-18 in the first meeting, Muskegon (9-2) scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to take the rematch and end the season for the reigning MHSAA runner-up. Mona Shores (10-1) followed up its best season ever with a second of double-digit victories. Muskegon is trying to get back to Ford Field for the fourth straight season. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
Walled Lake Western 34, Birmingham Groves 21 – Western (11-0) won this matchup of undefeated teams to get to 11 wins for the first time since 2011, while ending Groves’ winningest season at 10-1.
Livonia Franklin 63, Jackson 35 – After four straight sub-.500 seasons, Franklin (8-3) won its first District title since 2007 and clinched its best record since at least 2005; Jackson (8-3) won its most games since at least 1950 and after five straight finishes below .500.
Berkley 28, Southfield 20 – The first district title for Berkley (9-2) included tying the team record for wins and downing a Southfield team (7-4) that made the Division 2 Semifinals a season ago.
Midland Dow 41, Fenton 14 – The Chargers are 10-1 for the second straight season and headed to a Regional for the first time since 1997 after handing Fenton (9-2) its first loss since opening night.
Division 3
St. Johns 42, DeWitt 28
Count this as a statewide stunner for the Redwings (8-3), even with their tradition of success as they won their eighth game for the third time in four seasons. St. Johns had dropped six straight to the rival Panthers, including 49-21 only four weeks ago, but jumped to a 28-7 first-quarter lead and rode a mix of rushing and passing to put up the most points DeWitt (9-2) had given up since 2012. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Mount Pleasant 16, Petoskey 13 – The Oilers (9-2) won their second District title in three seasons after Connor Fiolek drilled a 42-yard field goal with 24 seconds left to push ahead of Petoskey (8-3).
St. Joseph 40, Edwardsburg 28 – The Bears (10-1) continued to fade out memories of last year’s 4-5, adding a District title to a shared league crown in handing Edwardsburg (10-1) its lone loss.
Coldwater 35, Vicksburg 14 – Coldwater’s first playoff win ever two weeks ago now is now a successful pair as the Cardinals (11-0) ended a five-game winning streak by the Bulldogs (8-3).
Chelsea 29, Trenton 16 – These Bulldogs (10-1) won their second straight District title and went over nine wins for the first time since 2007 by ending the best run since 2005 for Trenton (9-2).
Division 4
Hudsonville Unity Christian 23, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 21
Unity Christian isn’t just a soccer school anymore. The Crusaders improved to 8-3, those wins their most in their 13 seasons of football, and they earned the milestone victory against a program only five seasons removed from its most recent Ford Field trip. GRCC (9-2) improved three wins from a year ago, but was eliminated when Unity Christian’s Connor Hollemans converted a 26-yard field goal with six seconds to play. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Ada Forest Hills Eastern 21, Comstock Park 13 – The Hawks (10-1) added the first District title of their 12-year history by ending a sixth-straight playoff appearance by the Panthers (8-3).
Richmond 17, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 15 – The Blue Devils (10-1) won their second straight District title after holding off a comeback attempt that included two fourth-quarter scores by the Irish (8-3), who bounced back from 3-5 a year ago.
Milan 67, Detroit Denby 44 – Milan (9-2) has put up more points by far than even its double-digit win seasons of the last two decades, and needed them this time to hold off a Denby team (6-5) that scored its most in a game since 2013.
Remus Chippewa Hills 35, Big Rapids 12 – The Warriors (9-2) won their first District title by ending the best season for Big Rapids since 2012 after the Cardinals (7-4) won only one game a year ago.
Division 5
Lansing Catholic 21, Portland 14
This too turned out more like what was expected the first time these teams matched up this season. Portland downed Lansing Catholic 28-6 in Week 4, but the Cougars followed their star quarterback Tony Poljan this time with just enough big plays to hand the Raiders (10-1) their first and only loss. He ran for two scores and connected on a key long pass to help Lansing Catholic (10-1) to within two more wins of returning to Ford Field after finishing runner-up a year ago. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Grand Rapids West Catholic 21, Reed City 14 – The Falcons (9-2) won their sixth straight District title with their eighth straight victory, ending the season for Reed City (10-1) for the third time in five years.
Buchanan 35, Berrien Springs 0 – These two played to a two-point win for Buchanan in Week 8, but the Bucks (11-0) must have found what they needed to shut down the Shamrocks (9-2).
River Rouge 42, Detroit University Prep 0 – River Rouge (10-1) has three District titles and three double-digit win totals in four seasons after ending this one for University Prep (7-4).
Ida 39, Dearborn Heights Robichaud 30 – The Bluestreaks’ best season ever continued with their first District title to move to 11-0, while Robichaud (8-3) finished with at least that many wins for the third time in four seasons.
Division 6
Constantine 49, Watervliet 48
The 17th straight playoff berth for Constantine came at-large with a 5-4 regular-season record, but the Falcons have looked like anything but a team that just got into the postseason. First came a three-point win over previously-undefeated rival Schoolcraft. This week’s one-point win ended the season for another league champion in Watervliet (9-2), which beat Constantine by 21 in Week 6. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.
Also noted:
Ithaca 42, Sanford Meridian 6 – Ithaca (11-0) still hasn’t let an opponent come within 28 points, including now Jack Pine Conference champion Sanford Meridian (10-1), which posted its best record ever this fall.
Jackson Lumen Christi 45, Manchester 28 – Three losses over the final five games of the regular season haven’t slowed down Lumen Christi (8-3) in the playoffs, as the Titans this week posted an impressive win over the Cascades Conference champion Dutchmen (9-2).
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 31, Montague 28 – The Mustangs (11-0) are looking like a contender again for the second straight year after handing rejuvenated Montague (10-1) its only loss.
Clinton 43, Madison Heights Madison 20 – Clinton has owned the road, moving to 11-0 with a sound defeat of host Madison (9-2) after beating the reigning champion Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central in the District opener.
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia 38, Saugatuck 28
The Pirates’ fifth straight District championship might have been the toughest to earn against previously-undefeated Saugatuck (10-1). Pewamo-Westphalia (11-0) scored 16 points over the final six minutes to move on. Saugatuck finished with 10 wins for the second time in program history and first since finishing Division 8 runner-up in 2010. Click for more from the Ionia Sentinel-Standard.
Also noted:
McBain 20, Saginaw Nouvel 19 (OT) – The Ramblers (8-3) went for a two-point conversion down one in overtime and extended their best season since 2011 while ending Nouvel’s at 9-2.
Sandusky 7, Cass City 0 – A touchdown on fourth down with less than a minute to play gave Sandusky (11-0) its first District title and continued the Redskins’ best season while ending the best run for Cass City (8-3) since 2005.
Dansville 35, Homer 21 – The Aggies (10-1) have 10 wins and a District title for the first time after defeating Big 8 Conference champion Homer (8-3).
New Lothrop 37, Flint Beecher 7 – The Hornets (11-0) won this unofficial Genesee Area Conference crossover and with it a third straight District title, although Beecher (7-3) did score the first points New Lothrop had given up in four weeks.
Division 8
Muskegon Catholic Central 48, Beal City 13
The rematch of the 2013 Division 8 Final again went the Crusaders' way, as MCC rushed for 402 yards and five touchdowns to break open a game still close at halftime. Muskegon Catholic Central has scored at least 48 points the last three games after scoring only six points in a Week 8 loss to Detroit Country Day – the two-time reigning champion put up more points than Beal City had given up in a game since 2011. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
St. Ignace 16, Johannesburg-Lewiston 8 – Although they finished ahead of Johannesburg-Lewiston (9-2) in the Ski Valley Conference, the Saints (10-1) ended up on the road but came away with a fourth District title in five seasons.
Frankfort 28, Onekama 21 – Frankfort (9-2) earned its first District title since 2009 with a quick turnaround after falling to Onekama (9-2) by 13 points only two weeks ago.
Ottawa Lake Whiteford 26, Morenci 6 – After taking a pair of losses from Tri-County Conference rival Morenci (8-3) in 2014, Whiteford (9-2) returned the favors with its second this fall after also winning the Week 7 matchup.
Crystal Falls Forest Park 26, Bark River-Harris 22 – For the second straight week, Forest Park (7-3) avenged a regular-season loss, this time bouncing back from a one-point opening-night defeat to the Broncos (8-3).
8-Player
Battle Creek St. Philip 58, Lawrence 14
In an odd turn of schedule, St. Philip (11-0) has faced two opponents twice over the last four weeks – Portland St. Patrick in Week 8 and in the Pre-Regional, and then Lawrence in Week 9 and the Regional Final. The first St. Philip-Lawrence meeting came out a three-point St. Philip win, which made this result a little surprising from a score margin point of view. St. Philip had been eliminated the last two seasons by Lawrence (8-3), last year’s eventual champion. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
Also noted:
Cedarville 22, Posen 20 (OT) – Two points one way went the other this time, as Cedarville (9-2) avenged a 28-26 Week 6 loss to Posen (10-1) to make a second straight Semifinal.
Powers North Central 64, Rapid River 8 – Believe it or not, North Central (11-0) tied its season low in points in ending a fifth-straight winning season for the Rockets (7-4).
Deckerville 40, Morrice 20 – Deckerville (10-1) also avenged a regular-season loss and its only loss this season, a Week 6 four-point defeat to Morrice (9-2).
PHOTO: Muskegon Catholic Central (gold helmets) defeated Beal City in a playoff game for the second time in three seasons. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)