Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
A Game for Every Fan: Playoffs Week 2
November 5, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Emotions run high by nature during the football playoffs. But this weekend’s schedule of 11-player District Finals and 8-player Regional Finals is especially charged.
Rivalry games dominate this second round of the postseason as teams that competed for league titles meet again for another trophy – or in the case of Division 8, contenders for an MHSAA title a few years ago find themselves on the field together again.
See below for some of the most intriguing from this week’s list, and follow all weekend on the MHSAA Score Center for results as they come in and updated brackets. Watch as well four games at once Friday on Fox Sports Detroit’s Prep Zone, and catch another marquee matchup live on MHSAA.tv with subscription. All games below are Friday unless noted.
Division 1
Romeo (9-1) at Lapeer (10-0)
Lapeer is 20-1 in two seasons as a program after the merger of the former Lapeer West and East in 2014. Its lone loss was by three in last fall’s District Final to eventual champion Clarkston – and after the Lightning beat Romeo by eight in the playoff opener. Romeo earned this rematch by ending Clarkston’s reign last week, but its defense – giving up a meager 6.5 points per game – should receive its toughest challenge since Lapeer put up 23 last season.
Others that caught my eye: Brighton (9-1) at Grand Ledge (10-0), Hudsonville (7-3) at Rockford (7-3), Ann Arbor Pioneer (7-3) at Saline (9-0), Utica Eisenhower (7-3) at Macomb Dakota (8-2), Saturday.
Division 2
Muskegon (8-2) at Muskegon Mona Shores (10-0), Saturday
This gets higher billing than the matchup below between undefeated teams because it might be the state’s most anticipated game regardless of division. More than 10,000 fans watched Mona Shores’ 21-18 win over the Big Reds in Week 8, and an additional few thousand are anticipated for Saturday’s 5 p.m. kickoff. Last time, Mona Shores jumped out to a 21-3 third-quarter lead before Muskegon came back with two scores during the fourth. This one should stay closer from the start.
Others that caught my eye: Midland Dow (9-1) at Fenton (9-1), Birmingham Groves (10-0) at Walled Lake Western (10-0), Detroit East English (8-2) at Grosse Pointe South (7-3), Southfield (7-3) at Berkley (8-2).
Division 3
Edwardsburg (10-0) at St. Joseph (9-1)
The Eddies already scored one for the Wolverine B Conference over the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference by eliminating Stevensville Lakeshore last week. Now they get SMAC West co-champ St. Joseph, and on the road. The Bears’ only loss this season was to Lakeshore, by a pair of scores in Week 4, but they closed the regular season with three wins over playoff teams over the final month.
Others that caught my eye: Zealand East (7-3) at East Grand Rapids (7-3), St. Johns (7-3) at DeWitt (9-1), Chelsea (9-1) at Trenton (9-1), Vicksburg (8-2) at Coldwater (10-0).
Division 4
Comstock Park (8-2) at Ada Forest Hills Eastern (9-1)
Forest Hills Eastern can take the next step in a record-setting season that’s already seen the Hawks win their most games ever and first in the playoffs – and come within three points of being undefeated. Offense should reign. Forest Hills Eastern runs well and Comstock Park gave up more than 200 yards to Swan Valley’s leading rusher last week, and the Panthers are dangerous throwing and running and could find some gaps in an FHE defense giving up 19 points per game.
Others that caught my eye: Benton Harbor (6-4) at Zeeland West (10-0), Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (8-2) at Richmond (9-1), Big Rapids (7-3) at Remus Chippewa Hills (8-2), Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood (9-1) at Detroit Country Day (9-1), Saturday.
Division 5
Lansing Catholic (9-1) at Portland (10-0)
This either will be the first and only loss for a Portland team seeking its second MHSAA championship in four seasons, or final game for a Lansing Catholic group that came within five points of winning Division 5 a year ago – and will graduate University of Minnesota quarterback recruit Tony Poljan. Portland won their regular-season matchup 28-6 in Week 4, but can’t expect the Cougars to repeat an uncharacteristic four turnovers. They’ve both been impressive since; Lansing Catholic entered the postseason with wins over playoff teams Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard and Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central by a combined 77-23, while Portland allowed only Marshall to come closer than 22 points and held a record-setting Stockbridge offense to only 18 last week.
Others that caught my eye: Grand Rapids West Catholic (8-2) at Reed City (10-0), Frankenmuth (9-1) at Freeland (10-0), Berrien Springs (9-1) at Buchanan (10-0), Almont (8-2) at Algonac (9-1).
Division 6
Montague (10-0) vs. Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (10-0) at Comstock Park
The Wildcats have nearly come all the way back to their former roost among the elite after going 2-7 a year ago. But NorthPointe Christian provides a substantial obstacle as Montague pursues its first District title since 2011. NorthPointe’s only loss in the last 19 games came last season in an MHSAA Semifinal, and it’s giving up only 7.6 points per game.
Others that caught my eye: Sanford Meridian (10-0) at Ithaca (10-0), Jackson Lumen Christi (7-3) at Manchester (9-1), Clinton (10-0) at Madison Heights Madison (9-1), Calumet (8-2) at Boyne City (9-1), Saturday.
Division 7
Flint Beecher (7-2) at New Lothrop (10-0)
Beecher easily is the smallest school on its side of the Genesee Area Conference, the only Class C school in a Red group of otherwise all Class B. This matchup will satisfy some curiosity, as New Lothrop hasn’t lost a game in the Class C-dominated GAC Blue since 2009 – and in Week 8 defeated Flint Hamady 49-0. Beecher just edged Hamady 30-28 to open the playoffs last week.
Others that caught my eye: Saugatuck (10-0) at Pewamo-Westphalia (10-0), Class City (8-2) at Sandusky (10-0), Dansville (9-1) at Homer (8-2), Cassopolis (8-2) at Bridgman (9-1).
Division 8
Muskegon Catholic Central (7-2) at Beal City (9-1), Saturday
One of these two has played in the Division 8 Final the last three seasons, and they met in the 2013 championship game, a 35-12 MCC win. This Crusaders’ team has a much different lineup than the one that won back-to-back championships the last two seasons, but new players gained valuable experience in losses to Division 5 Muskegon Oakridge and Division 4 Detroit Country Day. Beal City has a few who were part of the 2013 loss, setting this up as a potential classic as they seek a different result.
Others that caught my eye: Onekama (9-1) at Frankfort (8-2), Crystal Falls Forest Park (6-3) vs. Bark River-Harris (8-2) at Northern Michigan University's Superior Dome, Ottawa Lake Whiteford (8-2) at Morenci (8-2), St. Ignace (9-1) at Johannesburg-Lewiston (9-1).
8-Player
Lawrence (8-2) at Battle Creek St. Philip (10-0)
St. Philip regained the upper hand on Lawrence in Week 9 after three straight losses – and now has to keep it as the favorite to follow Lawrence as the 8-player champion. St. Philip won that meeting two weeks ago only 47-44 but led by 14 points halfway through the first quarter and by 15 points heading into the fourth. Lawrence obviously can score quickly, meaning this one should again come down to the final minutes.
Other Regional Finals: Rapid River (7-3) at Powers North Central (10-0), Cedarville (8-2) at Posen (10-0), Deckerville (9-1) at Morrice (9-1).
PHOTO: Lapeer has 20 wins over the last two seasons, including against Saginaw Heritage this fall. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)