Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13

October 28, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.

So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:

  • A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.


  • We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.


  • We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.


  • We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.


  • And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)

And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.  

Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.

Observations and answers: 2013

This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.

This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.

Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.

Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.

But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.

Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.

The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.

Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.

Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.

Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.

But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.

That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.  

Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.

But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.

It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.

PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map. 

A Game for Every Fan: Week 8

October 15, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

All but one of the top-billed games of this week’s statewide football preview will decide a league champion. There are great ones to watch, no matter where you call home.

At the same time, we’re turning an eye to the growing 11-player playoff field, which includes 109 teams with 86 more able to qualify with a win this weekend. For that reason, you’ll see below a few more games than usual featuring teams with three-loss records – because those teams’ seasons are on the line as they attempt to win out and guarantee a postseason spot.

Read on for games that could carry the most impact from every region of the state during Week 8. And remember to check MHSAA Score Center this weekend for results as they come in, updated standings and playoff-point averages.

Bay & Thumb

Algonac (7-0) at Richmond (6-1)

Algonac, 1-8 a year ago, can finish its first league title run since 1972 after clinching a share of the Blue Water Area Conference championship last week against previously-undefeated Almont. But don’t forget Richmond, a regular in this kind of game and a one-point loss to Almont from being undefeated. The Blue Devils would love to spoil the party; they beat Algonac 42-21 in 2014.

Others that caught my eye: Montrose (4-3) at Flint Beecher (5-1), New Lothrop (7-0) at Flint Hamady (6-1), Corunna (6-1) at Lake Fenton (4-3), Holly (4-3) at Swartz Creek (4-3).

Greater Detroit

Sterling Heights Stevenson (6-1) at Macomb Dakota (5-2)

The Macomb Area Conference Red race has been one of the state’s most exciting this season, with five of six teams in the league still in the hunt for a share of the title and for automatic playoff berths as well. These two carry one-win leads into this weekend’s final league games; both are 3-1, while Clinton Township Chippewa Valley, Utica Eisenhower and Warren Mott are all 2-2 in league play. Dakota has won the league three straight seasons, including last fall despite a 19-12 loss to Stevenson.

Others that caught my eye: St. Clair Shores South Lake (7-0) at Madison Heights Madison (6-1), Northville (7-0) at Plymouth (6-1), Hartland (5-2) at Walled Lake Western (7-0), Detroit Catholic Central (5-2) at Warren DeLaSalle (6-1).

Mid-Michigan

Fowler (6-1) at Pewamo-Westphalia (7-0)

This will be the 50th game between these neighbors and rivals, with Fowler holding a 27-22 advantage. This matchup has decided the last three Central Michigan Athletic Conference championships, with Fowler taking two of those three, and the Eagles hope to gain a share this time as P-W has a one-win edge with this the final week of the conference season. This has been a special one overall for the Pirates, who on opening night handed Madison Heights Madison its only loss and since have outscored six teams by a combined 340-27.

Others that caught my eye: Haslett (4-3) at Williamston (4-3), East Lansing (4-3) at Grand Ledge (7-0), Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard (4-3) at Lansing Catholic (6-1), Fruitport (4-3) at St. Johns (5-2).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Frankfort (6-1) at Charlevoix (5-2)

The Panthers will play the region’s game to watch for the second straight week, with both of these teams undefeated in the Northern Michigan Football League Legends division and Frankfort a half-win ahead in the standings with one more league game played. A conference title would be the Panthers’ first since 2008 and Charlevoix’s first since 2000 – and the Red Rayders won this matchup 27-6 a year ago.

Others that caught my eye: Hillman (6-1) at Whittemore-Prescott (4-3), Traverse City St. Francis (7-0) at Kalkaska (4-3), Lincoln Alcona (5-2) at Lake City (3-4), Maple City Glen Lake (4-3) at Kingsley (4-3).

Southeast & Border

Vandercook Lake (7-0) at Manchester (6-1)

The Cascades Conference championship is on the line with both teams undefeated in league play. Vandercook Lake has its most wins since 1996 and is chasing its first undefeated regular season since 1970 after surviving a three-point victory over Michigan Center last week. This is much more familiar territory for Manchester, which has won outright or shared the Cascades title the last three seasons.

Others that caught my eye: Ypsilanti Community (4-3) at Saline (7-0), Brooklyn Columbia Central (6-1) at Dundee (4-3), Ida (7-0) at Hillsdale (5-2), Holt (5-2) at Jackson (5-2).

Southwest Corridor

Buchanan (7-0) at Berrien Springs (7-0)

The victor will remain perfect and become the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference White champion. That should be enough to sell this tilt, but there are additional details of note. Berrien Springs finished second in the Wolverine B Conference West last season and has its most wins since 2011 with a shot at its best finish since 2004. Buchanan is coming off two losing seasons and has its most wins since 2012, when it won the Lakeland Conference. This also is the first game between the longtime rivals since 2011.

Others that caught my eye: Bridgman (6-1) at Niles Brandywine (5-2), Saugatuck (7-0) at Delton Kellogg (5-2), Watervliet (6-1) at Decatur (5-2), Battle Creek Lakeview (5-2) at St. Joseph (6-1).

Upper Peninsula

Ishpeming (6-0) at St. Ignace (7-0)

This game means nothing from a league race perspective and everything from a Peninsula pride point of view. St. Ignace locked up the Ski Valley Conference title with a perfect run it finished two weeks ago, while Ishpeming owns a share of the Mid-Peninsula Conference title and can finish the outright championship next week against two-win Gwinn. What makes this game intriguing is that Ishpeming hasn’t lost a regular-season game since Week 7 of 2012 and St. Ignace is perfect for the regular season since Week 9 of 2013 – and these two powers have played each other only once, in 1988.  

Others that caught my eye: Munising (6-1) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (5-2), DeWitt (7-0) at Menominee (7-0), Sault Ste. Marie (5-2) at Escanaba (3-4), Hurley, Wis. (7-1) at Iron Mountain (4-3).

West Michigan

Muskegon (6-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (7-0)

Before last season, when the Sailors won 48-27, they hadn’t beaten the Big Reds since 1982. Could they extend the streak to two? This latest chapter is at Mona Shores, the crowd should be huge, and the Sailors are reigning Division 2 runners-up and backed by a defense that hasn’t given up more than 14 points in a game while facing the likes of Fruitport, Rockford, Caledonia and Zeeland East. Then again, Muskegon remains what we’ve grown to expect – the Big Reds look like contenders to reach a fourth-straight MHSAA Final with wins over Grand Rapids Christian, East Grand Rapids and Zeeland East and the only loss to Detroit Catholic Central after Muskegon led by two touchdowns during the third quarter.

Others that caught my eye: Muskegon Oakridge (6-1) at Montague (7-0), East Grand Rapids (5-2) at Lowell (6-1), Remus Chippewa Hills (6-1) at Reed City (7-0), Cedar Springs (5-2) at Ada Forest Hills Eastern (7-0).

8-Player

Deckerville (6-1) at Peck (6-1)

Michigan’s thumb is a hub for 8-player football, thanks in large part to these two past MHSAA champions. Peck has a half-win lead over Deckerville in the North Central Thumb 8-Man League standings because it has played one more league game, but this likely will decide the championship. Deckerville hasn’t beaten the Pirates since its 2012 MHSAA title season, and would love to avenge last season’s 30-28 loss that gave Peck the league title.

Others that caught my eye: Battle Creek St. Philip (7-0) at Portland St. Patrick (6-1), Engadine (5-2) at Stephenson (5-2).

PHOTO: Walled Lake Western and Lowell, which faced off earlier this season, both face tough opponents in Week 8. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)