Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '13
October 28, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At the end of the day – Sunday, in this case – the 2013 MHSAA football playoff field was determined based on a set of numbers we began working with long before the first kickoff of this season.
So to kick off our discussion of how some of the 2013 playoff-selection decisions were made, here are a few numbers that might boggle the mind – or at least surprise:
- A total of 3,111 high school results were used in determining this season’s field – 2,978 for 11-player and 133 for 8-player games.
- We inputted and then followed the schedules for 623 MHSAA teams.
- We also inputted and followed weekly the schedules for 50 teams from surrounding states and Ontario that played at least one game against one of our MHSAA schools.
- We worked through complicated maneuverings made necessary by seven teams playing a mix of 11 and 8-player games, plus two more teams that played a mix of varsity and junior varsity opponents.
- And by Sunday morning we ended up with a few more numeric rarities: only 225 automatic qualifiers, the fewest since the current playoff system was introduced in 1999, and also an uneven number of at-large bids from our four classes because only six Class D teams reached the number of victories needed to be considered. (This was balanced by taking more at-large qualifiers from Classes A, B and C.)
And that was just the start of one of our most exciting days of the school year.
Following are more details. First, I explain some of the history of the MHSAA playoffs – I’ve lifted this in part from our 2012 report, so skip ahead if you’ve already got that down. Next, I touch on five themes that emerged as we built the brackets for this season’s tournament.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999, as mentioned above. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the fields are set.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play. The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket.
Observations and answers: 2013
This doesn’t happen overnight: Preparation for selecting the MHSAA playoff field begins long before the first kickoff of fall, much less the first practice. We load schedules for all 600-plus varsity teams during the summer, and many schedules remain fluid right up until the first Friday of the season – and this fall, a few weren’t settled until Week 2 or 3.
This summer as in some past we also worked through schools closing (Inkster, Saginaw Buena Vista, Detroit Northwestern, Flint Northern), and others deciding in mid-July and early August they would not field teams because of a lack of players.
Sometimes we have to take odd paths to find scores for these games. The last 11-player score to be added to our data this regular season came in as a result of tweeting the sports anchor of a Wheeling, W.Va., television station. Our last 8-player score came in via email from a Wisconsin athletic director at 10:30 Saturday night. Thankfully, we get plenty of assistance from some of our friends in the field, who keep an eye on the data and alert us when something appears missing or incorrect.
Win and advance: This season’s list of 5-4 teams includes a number of heavy hitters that did not receive at-large bids – East Grand Rapids, Utica Eisenhower, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and Flint Powers Catholic to name a few. All were solid teams and played strong competition. All missing the playoffs likely raised some eyebrows.
But we have to take a look at this from a statewide view. There admittedly can be some argument about what schools qualified for the 226-256 spots in the field – but the important part is that 225 qualified because they all met the minimum win requirement. A playoff is simply that – it decides a champion based on teams winning. For some it’s harder to pile wins, of course, because they play in tough leagues. But the winners of those leagues are in the field – and surely will credit that tough road with getting them prepared to now play the state’s best.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport, and is a repeat as well for those who have read this report the last two Octobers. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration.
Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the crow flies.
The best example of this comes this season in Division 5. Grayling clearly is east of both Kingsley and Kalkaska – but also sits on I-75, while those two do not. So while those more western teams are geographically closer to Houghton, Menominee and Kingsford from the Upper Peninsula, we instead paired the three U.P. teams with Grayling because being on a main highway made for a shorter trip. The trip to Grayling for any of those U.P. teams would be 36 miles shorter to Grayling than Kingsley and 13 miles shorter to Grayling than Kalkaska.
Sometimes it’s where the points aren’t: Sure, it would be best-case scenario to have perfect sets of eight dots split into four quadrants from Calumet to Bedford. But generally that doesn’t occur. “Dots determine the map” is a common phrase heard here during this selection process, but that works the other way as well. If there are no qualifiers in a division from a specific area of the state – see Division 1, with none south of Holland or west of the greater Lansing area – there’s no choice but to create the unusual Regional Final possibility of Traverse City West vs. Brighton. Brighton is simply closer to the west side of the state than our other options.
Border to border vs. coast to coast: Should Regions be grouped north to south or east to west? There isn't a right or wrong answer – it just depends on that set of dots.
Whenever we have Upper Peninsula teams in a division, they’ll be grouped with those from the northernmost points of the Lower Peninsula for a District. The next northernmost schools will be grouped into a District, and together those eight will form a Region.
But the tough decision comes with the other six Districts. Look at this season’s Division 5 map: Six Districts are grouped south of U.S. 10 with three near or west of U.S. 127 and three east of that highway, which runs through the center of the Lower Peninsula. We grouped the two southwestern Districts into a Region and the two southeastern Districts into a Region – leaving a final Region that stretches from Muskegon on Lake Michigan to Almont, about 35 miles west of Lake Huron.
That’s a haul. But it’s also the best of our possible compromises. We could’ve instead paired regions that would’ve stretched from Hopkins to Monroe – only 19 fewer miles in distance than Muskegon Oakridge to Almont, but a scenario that could’ve created travel increases for a number of additional teams. Another option included a possible trip from Detroit University Prep to Freeland, which also would take more than two hours.
Bottom line – it’s been written here before – we pour all we have into this process, asking questions often more than once until we come up with a consensus. We do appreciate the arguments that arise once brackets are released to the public: The discussions are proof of how much players, coaches and fans care – and often show us new ways we can look at a system that’s now 15 years old.
But we must remember that the good news is the tournament is still set up to reward nine champions over the next five weeks, and five schools – Auburn Hills Oakland Christian, Coldwater, Detroit Allen, Eaton Rapids and Muskegon Mona Shores – will be competing for those titles for the first time.
It’s not so much how the tournament starts as how it ends. And we’re preparing for nine more memorable conclusions.
PHOTO: Each collection of grouped dots is a District on this season's Division 3 playoff map.
Drive for Detroit: Week 5 in Review
September 28, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
This weekend was "why they play the games" all over the state of Michigan.
That cliche is thrown around often, of course. But rarely do we see this many upsets as we cross the midway points of the regular season.
We touch on many of them below in this week's "Drive for Detroit" report.
Bay & Thumb
Almont 30, Richmond 29 (2 OT)
The game that has decided the Blue Water Area Conference champion the last two seasons might have done so again Friday, with Almont (5-0) dealing the Blue Devils (4-1) their first loss after both made field goals to send the game to a second overtime. Richmond scored the most points Almont had given up since these teams met in 2013 – but Almont held on in a game that was knotted at multiple points during regulation. Click for more from the Port Huron Times-Herald.
Also noted:
Frankenmuth 28, Millington 7 – The Eagles (5-0) made it three of the last four over the rival Cardinals (4-1) in a game that could again decide the Tri-Valley Conference East title.
Lapeer 35, Mount Pleasant 14 – The Lightning (5-0) remains perfect during the regular season over its first two as a program after a test against another Saginaw Valley League Red contender in Mount Pleasant (3-2).
Midland Dow 35, Flint Powers Catholic 30 – Midland (4-1) earned the upper hand in the SVL Blue again after beating Powers (3-2) for the title last season.
Corunna 20, Flint Beecher 8 – This may turn out to be the Cavaliers’ most significant win in more than a decade; Corunna (4-1) is the Genesee Area Conference Red favorite now after handing reigning champion Beecher (4-1) its first regular-season loss since Week 7 of 2013.
Greater Detroit
Detroit Martin Luther King 31, Detroit Cass Tech 28 (OT)
The match up of the city’s two best teams unfolded like a game of that magnitude should, ending on an 18-yard field goal by kicker Anwar Miah, who missed an extra point earlier in Saturday’s contest. King (5-0) held on for its third victory this season by a touchdown or less and first win over Cass Tech since the 2012 Detroit Public School League championship game. That also was Cass Tech’s last regular-season loss before Saturday; the Technicians (4-1) could see King in the PSL final again next month. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.
Also noted:
Farmington Hills Harrison 17, Southfield 14 – If this ends up as the final season of Harrison football, it looks like the Hawks (4-1) will end with an Oakland Activities Association White title after downing former co-leader Southfield (3-2).
Warren DeLaSalle 31, Orchard Lake St. Mary's 8 – Reigning Division 2 title winner DeLaSalle (4-1) won this Catholic League Central battle of MHSAA champions big over reigning Division 3 winner St. Mary’s (4-1).
Belleville 23, Dearborn Heights Robichaud 20 – The Tigers (4-1) continued their bounce-back from last season’s 3-6 finish and are the Western Wayne Blue frontrunners after handing Robichaud (4-1) its first loss.
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 34, Warren Mott 30 – The Macomb Area Conference Red race is a mish-mash now that Chippewa Valley (4-1) beat Mott (4-1), which beat Macomb Dakota, which beat Chippewa Valley, which handed Sterling Heights Stevenson its only loss.
Mid-Michigan
Lake Odessa Lakewood 27, Olivet 14
The Vikings' best start since the perfect season of 1974 continues, and Lakewood (5-0) looks really good to claim its first league title since 1980 after beating the reigning Greater Lansing Activities Conference champion Eagles (3-2). The win also guaranteed Lakewood its first winning regular season since 2005. Click for more from Fox 17 in Grand Rapids.
Also noted:
Holt 35, East Lansing 20 – New coach Chad Fulk’s turnaround effort is gaining steam, with Holt (3-2) equaling last season’s win total while handing a first Capital Area Activities Conference Blue loss to also-improved East Lansing (2-3).
Dansville 21, Fowler 19 – Just when it looked like the Aggies (4-1) were out of the Central Michigan Athletic Conference race after a 57-point loss to Pewamo-Westphalia in Week 3, they storm back to edge the reigning champion Eagles (4-1).
Grand Ledge 35, Jackson 16 – This sets the Comets (5-0) up nicely to win the CAAC Blue, while making the playoff push just a little tougher for Jackson (3-2) as it pursues its first berth since 2009.
Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 16, Carson City-Crystal 14 – The Irish (2-3) needed this one as they look to repeat in the Mid-State Activities Conference with Vestaburg also standing in the way in Week 7; the Eagles (2-3) also could still figure into the conversation playing Vestaburg in Week 8.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City St. Francis 32, Boyne City 13
The last three seasons of this rivalry belonged to Boyne City, but St. Francis added to a fall already full of highlights by beating the Ramblers (4-1) big to take an early step forward in the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders division. Boyne City had beaten St. Francis (5-0) by a point, 28-27, a year ago. But the Gladiators’ defense continues to shine and has given up only 25 points over five games. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Traverse City Central 34, Gaylord 27 – The Trojans (5-0) got a needed big start on a tough string of Big North Conference games to finish the season, with Gaylord (4-1) still on track for its best since at least 2005.
Maple City Glen Lake 12, Onekama 7 – Glen Lake (4-1) continued its rebound from last season by handing Onekama (4-1) its first loss and scoring the first points the Portagers have given up this fall.
Whittemore-Prescott 14, Lincoln Alcona 8 – The Cardinals (2-3) must win out to guarantee a ninth straight playoff appearance, and this week that meant handing a first loss to Alcona (4-1).
McBain 26, Manton 24 – The Ramblers (4-1) held on to set up this week’s Highland Conference battle with favorite Beal City by downing Manton (2-3) by two points for the second time in three seasons.
Southeast & Border
Clinton 42, Morenci 22
Morenci has risen to Tri-County Conference power over the last two seasons, but league supremacy still belongs to Clinton (5-0) after it extended its regular-season winning streak to 32 and beat the Bulldogs (4-1) for the fourth straight time. Running back Mathew Sexton ran for 262 yards and six touchdowns as Clinton also set a conference record with 24 straight victories in the league; its last league defeat was to Sand Creek in Week 9 of 2011. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.
Also noted:
Ann Arbor Pioneer 20, Monroe 12 – Pioneer’s first 5-0 start since 1991 has it lined up to play Saline this week for a share of the Southeastern Conference Red title, with Monroe (3-2) also potentially still in the mix as it faces Saline in Week 7.
Vandercook Lake 44, Grass Lake 26 – This is already the best season for Vandercook Lake (5-0) since 1997 with its best start since 1996, while Grass Lake (2-3) must now win out to guarantee a playoff berth for the 11th straight season.
Dundee 29, Hudson 20 – The Vikings (3-2) have gone from 0-9 a year ago to an impact team in the Lenawee County Athletic Association with this win over reigning champion Hudson (2-3).
Ida 40, Brooklyn Columbia Central 0 – The Bluestreaks (5-0) have four straight games against LCAA contenders but got past the first by handing Columbia Central (4-1) its first loss.
Southwest Corridor
Marshall 21, Jackson Lumen Christi 14
The Redhawks (4-1) have struggled to sub-.500 records four of the last five seasons, but this definitely was their most monumental win since the MHSAA Division 4 championship game in 2009. Marshall lost to Lumen Christi (4-1) by 28 in last season’s first matchup as members of the Interstate Eight Conference, but now has the best chance of earning a share of the league title this fall if Coldwater (which beat Marshall 9-7 in Week 2) trips up. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
Also noted:
Battle Creek Lakeview 27, Stevensville Lakeshore 22 – The opening slate has been loaded for Lakeview (3-2), but beating Lakeshore (3-2) for the second straight year is a great way to start the season’s second half.
Sturgis 12, Vicksburg 8 – The Trojans (4-1) look like favorite Edwardsburg’s toughest obstacle in the Wolverine B Conference after avenging last season’s 42-20 loss to Vicksburg (3-2).
Edwardsburg 22, Dowagiac 12 – The Eddies (5-0) ran their league winning streak to 15 against the last team to beat them in a conference game, Dowagiac (3-2) in 2012.
Berrien Springs 31, Bridgman 21 – The Shamrocks (5-0) continued their best start since 2011 by handing Bridgman (4-1) its first loss, but not before the Bees scored the most points Berrien Springs has given up.
Upper Peninsula
St. Ignace 27, Johannesburg-Lewiston 21
The Saints (5-0) haven’t lost a league game since 2009, combining 23 straight in the Ski Valley Conference with its final six as a member of the Straits Area Conference for football. Johannesburg-Lewiston’s only Ski Valley losses of the last two seasons have come to St. Ignace, although this one was much closer than the 28-0 defeat of a year ago. The Cardinals (4-1) led by eight early in the fourth quarter before the Saints prevailed. Click for more from WWTV 9&10 News.
Also noted:
Houghton 44, Iron River West Iron County 22 – The Gremlins’ first win over West Iron (1-4) since 2001 puts them one game away at 2-3 from equaling last season’s win total.
Lake Linden-Hubbell 51, L'Anse 14 – The Lakes (5-0) have made it two straight against L’Anse since falling to the Purple Hornets (3-2) in their playoff opener in 2013.
Menominee 27, Kingsford 24 – The Maroons (5-0) haven’t lost a regular-season game since Week 5 in 2012, when Kingsford (3-2) also gave Menominee its most recent close game in the Great Northern Upper Peninsula Conference before this one.
Crystal Falls Forest Park 44, Newberry 24 – The Trojans (3-2) are battling with a smaller team than usual, but beating Newberry (3-2) keeps them among the elite small schools in the U.P.
West Michigan
Hudsonville 31, Grand Rapids Christian 24
While this meant nothing toward a league title for either team, it should give Hudsonville (4-1) plenty of momentum heading into the meat of its Ottawa-Kent Red schedule. The Eagles fell to Grand Rapids Christian 35-34 a year ago and then just made the playoffs at 5-4, but now Christian (3-2) has to be careful with a tough slate ahead and three wins needed to guarantee a spot in the postseason. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Rockford 46, Caledonia 20 – Rockford coach Ralph Munger joined the top 10 all-time winningest MHSAA football coaches with his 301st win, and the Rams got a key victory over Caledonia (2-3) as they look to keep a 20-year playoff streak alive.
Montague 29, Whitehall 28 – The resurgence continues for the Wildcats (5-0), who are setting up well for a Week 8 West Michigan Conference title decider against Muskegon Oakridge now that they’ve given Whitehall (3-2) a first league loss.
Jenison 28, East Kentwood 7 – The Wildcats (3-2) hadn’t won more than two games in a season since 2005, but look dangerous in the O-K White after handing East Kentwood (4-1) its first loss.
Saugatuck 50, Decatur 20 – The Indians (5-0) can clinch a share of the Southwestern Athletic Conference Division 3 title after downing former co-leader Decatur (3-2) and winning five games total a year ago.
8-Player
Engadine 62, Rapid River 30
This might be the biggest upset during the short history of MHSAA 8-player football. Engadine (3-2) has had success with three playoff appearances over the last four seasons. But Rapid River is an annual contender for the MHSAA title and has beaten the Eagles 46-26, 58-18, 50-21, 56-28, 60-40 and 50-32 in their 8-player games over the last five years. Rapid River (4-1) hadn’t lost a regular-season game since 2012. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
Waldron 46, Webberville 14 – Waldron (5-0) may have joined the state’s elite this fall by handing Webberville (4-1) its first loss and holding the Spartans under 30 points for the first time.
Morrice 55, Kingston 6 – Season two of 8-player is going well for the Orioles (4-1), who have outscored four opponents 222-12 since falling to Battle Creek St. Philip on opening night.
PHOTO: Detroit Martin Luther King, with ball, charged past rival Detroit Cass Tech in one of the state's most anticipated games this weekend. (Photo courtesy of the Detroit Public School League.)