Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

2014 Week 9 Football Playoff Listing

October 21, 2014

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Following is a list of Michigan High School Athletic Association football playing schools with at least four wins, displaying their win-loss records and playoff averages through the eighth week of the season.

Schools on this list are in enrollment order for 11-player teams, with 8-player teams ordered by playoff average. An asterisk (*) beside a record indicates a team has eight or fewer games scheduled. A caret (^) beside a school’s name indicates a team is one win away from playoff qualification.

Those schools with 11-player teams with six or more wins playing nine-game schedules, or five or more wins playing eight games or fewer, will qualify for the MHSAA Football Playoffs beginning Oct. 31. Schools with 5-4, 4-3 or 4-4 records may qualify if the number of potential qualifiers by win total does not reach the 256 mark. Schools with six or more wins playing nine-game schedules or five or more wins playing eight games or fewer may be subtracted from the field based on playoff average if the number of potential qualifiers exceeds the 256 mark.

Once the 256 qualifying schools are determined, they will be divided by enrollment groups into eight equal divisions of 32 schools, and then drawn into regions of eight teams each and districts of four teams each. Those schools with 8-player teams will be ranked by playoff average at season’s end, and the top 16 programs will be drawn into regions of eight teams each for the playoff in that division, which also begins Oct. 31.

To review a list of all football playoff schools, individual school playoff point details and to report errors, visit the Football page of the MHSAA Website.

The announcement of the qualifiers and first-round pairings for both the 11 and 8-player playoffs will take place at 7 p.m. on Oct. 26 on the Selection Sunday Show on FOX Sports Detroit. The playoff qualifiers and pairings will be posted to the MHSAA Website following the Selection Sunday Show.


11-Player Playoff Listing 

1. Macomb Dakota, 2814, 6-2, 84.500
2. Sterling Heights Stevenson, 2767, 6-2, 83.875
3. Clarkston, 2742, 8-0, 111.000
4. Utica Eisenhower ^, 2712, 5-3, 75.500
5. Grand Blanc ^, 2668, 5-3, 63.875
6. Howell, 2595, 4-4, 57.750
7. East Kentwood, 2592, 7-1, 93.500
8. Rockford, 2555, 6-2, 88.375
9. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley ^, 2538, 5-3, 69.750
10. Lake Orion, 2459, 4-4, 50.750
11. Dearborn Fordson, 2411, 8-0, 108.000
12. Northville ^, 2298, 5-3, 63.000
13. Holland West Ottawa ^, 2293, 5-3, 72.500
14. Canton, 2289, 6-2, 85.375
15. Detroit Cass Tech, 2277, 8-0, 106.000
16. Brighton, 2133, 4-4, 52.125
17. Plymouth, 2116, 6-2, 77.250
18. Lapeer, 2112, 8-0, 101.000
19. Utica Ford, 2090, 4-4, 47.125
20. Hartland, 2007, 6-2, 84.125
21. Monroe, 1992, 6-2, 81.625
22. West Bloomfield, 1929, 7-1, 93.875
23. Dearborn ^, 1876, 5-3, 71.375
24. Westland John Glenn ^, 1872, 5-3, 60.875
25. Warren Mott, 1870, 4-4, 58.250
26. Oxford, 1864, 6-2, 78.625
27. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 1857, 4-4, 48.250
28. Livonia Stevenson, 1848, 6-2, 76.125
29. Saline, 1844, 7-1, 92.083
30. Grandville, 1820, 4-4, 56.750
31. Walled Lake Central, 1815, 6-2, 83.250
32. Romeo ^, 1770, 5-3, 66.625
33. Hudsonville ^, 1759, 5-3, 67.875
34. Waterford Mott ^, 1738, 5-3, 69.750
35. Rochester Hills Stoney Creek, 1711, 4-4, 50.625
36. Livonia Churchill, 1696, 6-2, 79.250
37. Grand Ledge ^, 1689, 5-3, 61.875
38. Fraser ^, 1684, 5-3, 61.625
39. Grosse Pointe South, 1674, 4-4, 57.750
40. Traverse City West, 1658, 4-4, 54.625
41. Rochester Adams, 1614, 4-4, 49.375
42. Walled Lake Northern, 1613, 4-4, 54.250
43. Waterford Kettering, 1610, 4-4, 49.250
44. Temperance Bedford, 1600, 4-4, 54.125
45. Warren Cousino ^, 1588, 5-3, 67.250
46. Flint Carman-Ainsworth, 1568, 6-2, 77.375
47. Warren DeLaSalle ^, 1562, 5-3, 59.100
48. Davison, 1531, 4-4, 47.000
49. Detroit Western International, 1521, 4-4, 41.125
50. Detroit Martin Luther King, 1507, 8-0, 109.143
51. Walled Lake Western, 1502, 7-1, 97.500
52. Traverse City Central, 1490, 6-2, 79.875
53. Oak Park, 1486, 6-2, 79.500
54. Brownstown Woodhaven, 1484, 8-0, 107.000
55. East Detroit, 1422, 4-4, 45.750
56. Ypsilanti Lincoln, 1422, 6-2, 74.875
57. Caledonia, 1417, 6-2, 86.875
58. Midland, 1400, 4-4, 48.375
59. Southfield-Lathrup, 1388, 4-4, 49.250
60. Portage Central *, 1384, 6-1, 86.911
61. Detroit Pershing, 1379, 4-4, 40.518
62. Southgate Anderson ^, 1374, 5-3, 59.000
63. Lansing Everett ^, 1364, 5-3, 63.125
64. Dearborn Edsel Ford, 1356, 4-4, 51.250
65. Wyandotte Roosevelt, 1351, 6-2, 77.625
66. Detroit East English ^, 1345, 5-3, 62.768
67. Portage Northern ^, 1345, 5-3, 69.571
68. Port Huron, 1336, 6-2, 80.375
69. Grosse Pointe North ^, 1310, 5-3, 66.625
70. Ypsilanti Community ^, 1300, 5-3, 59.500
71. Birmingham Brother Rice, 1298, 8-0, 109.000
72. Swartz Creek ^, 1285, 5-3, 61.875
73. Battle Creek Lakeview *, 1278, 6-1, 90.071
74. Muskegon Mona Shores, 1274, 7-1, 95.625
75. Okemos ^, 1273, 5-3, 66.750
76. Bay City Central, 1271, 4-4, 51.750
77. Birmingham Groves, 1270, 6-2, 76.375
78. Berkley, 1265, 6-2, 75.125
79. Flushing, 1260, 6-2, 79.250
80. Midland Dow, 1255, 8-0, 101.000
81. South Lyon, 1254, 7-1, 94.250
82. Southfield, 1239, 6-2, 78.500
83. Farmington Hills Harrison, 1212, 7-1, 94.625
84. Mattawan ^, 1184, 5-3, 64.929
85. Fenton, 1181, 8-0, 107.000
86. Farmington, 1178, 7-1, 94.750
87. Grand Rapids Northview, 1177, 6-2, 76.375
88. Warren Woods Tower, 1175, 6-2, 76.500
89. Muskegon, 1157, 8-0, 105.000
90. St. Clair Shores Lake Shore, 1153, 4-4, 48.375
91. Lowell, 1145, 7-1, 85.625
92. Detroit Renaissance ^, 1144, 5-3, 58.893
93. Greenville, 1130, 4-4, 43.125
94. Gibraltar Carlson, 1129, 4-4, 45.750
95. Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills, 1125, 4-4, 49.750
96. Battle Creek Central, 1124, 4-4, 49.339
97. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern, 1113, 6-2, 78.375
98. Holland, 1109, 4-4, 46.000
99. Detroit Cody ^, 1096, 5-3, 58.893
100. Marquette, 1090, 7-1, 81.292
101. St. Johns, 1088, 7-1, 90.875
102. Byron Center, 1085, 6-2, 74.500
103. Allen Park, 1069, 7-1, 88.875
104. Richland Gull Lake, 1064, 4-4, 46.964
105. Auburn Hills Avondale ^, 1056, 5-3, 58.000
106. Orchard Lake St. Mary's, 1054, 7-1, 85.875
107. Mt. Pleasant ^, 1050, 5-3, 59.125
108. Mason ^, 1032, 5-3, 61.125
109. St. Joseph, 1028, 4-4, 50.214
110. Redford Thurston ^, 1024, 5-3, 62.875
111. East Grand Rapids ^, 986, 5-3, 69.250
112. Petoskey, 965, 6-2, 77.375
113. Trenton ^, 955, 5-3, 60.250
114. Romulus, 950, 6-2, 65.500
115. Riverview ^, 935, 5-3, 55.250
116. DeWitt, 930, 8-0, 107.000
117. Gaylord ^, 927, 5-3, 59.875
118. Linden, 921, 6-2, 74.500
119. Detroit Mumford ^, 919, 5-3, 61.125
120. Middleville Thornapple Kellogg, 914, 4-4, 46.000
121. Cedar Springs, 910, 7-1, 87.500
122. Grand Rapids Christian ^, 895, 5-3, 65.125
123. Fruitport, 890, 4-4, 48.625
124. Stevensville Lakeshore, 887, 6-2, 80.071
125. Sault Ste. Marie, 886, 4-4, 46.750
126. Niles ^, 885, 5-3, 60.589
127. Coldwater, 876, 7-1, 73.875
128. Haslett, 874, 4-4, 55.750
129. Tecumseh ^, 869, 5-3, 62.125
130. New Boston Huron, 867, 7-1, 78.875
131. Warren Fitzgerald ^, 857, 5-3, 55.625
132. Zeeland West, 850, 8-0, 95.000
133. Dearborn Divine Child, 848, 6-2, 66.857
134. Bay City John Glenn, 847, 6-2, 59.500
135. Battle Creek Harper Creek ^, 845, 5-3, 53.250
136. St. Clair, 844, 6-2, 76.375
137. Edwardsburg, 839, 7-1, 84.625
138. Chelsea, 838, 6-2, 75.125
139. Detroit Old Redford ^, 837, 5-3, 47.889
140. Charlotte, 836, 4-4, 41.500
141. Milan, 828, 4-4, 40.750
142. Plainwell, 812, 7-1, 77.750
143. Ada Forest Hills Eastern, 808, 4-4, 46.750
144. Marysville ^, 806, 5-3, 62.250
145. Spring Lake ^, 802, 5-3, 56.625
146. Detroit Denby, 800, 4-4, 54.375
147. Ionia, 796, 4-4, 46.375
148. Vicksburg, 794, 6-2, 68.250
149. Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood ^, 790, 5-3, 44.750
150. Eaton Rapids ^, 773, 5-3, 55.000
151. Cadillac, 747, 8-0, 103.000
152. Goodrich, 737, 7-1, 76.875
153. Ferndale, 723, 4-4, 47.500
154. Three Rivers ^, 722, 5-3, 62.000
155. Dearborn Heights Robichaud, 717, 7-1, 79.786
156. Yale, 716, 6-2, 61.625
157. Comstock Park, 703, 4-4, 46.875
158. Hudsonville Unity Christian, 693, 4-4, 46.000
159. Harper Woods Chandler Park Academy, 691, 6-2, 67.875
160. Detroit Country Day, 690, 4-4, 46.500
161. Allendale, 689, 4-4, 46.250
162. Muskegon Orchard View ^, 662, 5-3, 50.750
163. Williamston, 659, 6-2, 69.250
164. Paw Paw ^, 657, 5-3, 53.875
165. Grand Rapids Catholic Central ^, 655, 5-3, 60.000
166. Lansing Sexton, 652, 8-0, 111.000
167. Whitehall, 644, 6-2, 59.500
168. Grosse Ile, 640, 6-2, 67.625
169. Kalamazoo Hackett ^, 635, 5-3, 45.536
170. Detroit Collegiate Prep, 634, 4-4, 42.250
171. Richmond, 630, 7-1, 77.875
172. Imlay City, 629, 4-4, 36.500
173. Grand Rapids South Christian, 623, 6-2, 74.125
174. Wyoming Kelloggsville ^, 610, 5-3, 51.750
175. Wyoming Godwin Heights ^, 609, 5-3, 44.625
176. Saginaw Swan Valley, 602, 8-0, 89.000
177. Clawson ^, 589, 5-3, 49.125
178. North Muskegon, 577, 4-4, 36.250
179. Birch Run, 575, 7-1, 75.750
180. Essexville Garber ^, 574, 5-3, 51.250
181. Remus Chippewa Hills, 567, 6-2, 70.250
182. Flint Powers Catholic, 553, 6-2, 68.500
183. Marine City, 553, 8-0, 96.000
184. Freeland, 549, 7-1, 74.875
185. Kingsford, 546, 4-4, 45.667
186. Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard, 545, 6-2, 56.786
187. Stanton Central Montcalm ^, 539, 5-3, 55.750
188. Portland, 538, 4-4, 48.875
189. Menominee, 532, 8-0, 91.730
190. Detroit University Prep, 530, 6-2, 60.264
191. River Rouge, 530, 7-1, 73.143
192. Frankenmuth, 528, 7-1, 75.750
193. Gladwin ^, 528, 5-3, 47.000
194. Ida, 527, 6-2, 58.500
195. Hopkins, 522, 7-1, 74.804
196. Grayling, 517, 4-4, 41.643
197. Lansing Catholic, 515, 8-0, 94.000
198. Almont, 512, 8-0, 85.889
199. Carrollton, 511, 4-4, 37.250
200. Newaygo, 506, 7-1, 73.625
201. Olivet, 505, 6-2, 64.125
202. Berrien Springs ^, 501, 5-3, 53.500
203. Muskegon Oakridge, 501, 7-1, 72.875
204. Onsted ^, 499, 5-3, 41.125
205. Ovid-Elsie ^, 487, 5-3, 53.000
206. Chesaning, 480, 4-4, 41.375
207. Detroit Central Collegiate ^, 479, 5-3, 52.018
208. Manistee, 479, 4-4, 40.375
209. Stockbridge ^, 462, 5-3, 50.625
210. Reed City, 461, 7-1, 77.750
211. Clare, 445, 6-2, 65.625