Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 4 in Review
September 22, 2014
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
A total of 93 teams remain undefeated after the fourth week of this MHSAA football season.
A number of them had to overcome major challenges last week to remain flawless.
Read on for last week's most significant results from every corner of the state, kicked off by a bit of the story behind one of the surprise 4-0 teams of 2014.
Southwest and Border
Vicksburg 25, Paw Paw 20
This wins out as the biggest result from a weekend of many from this part of the state for a few reasons, including its contribution to Vicksburg's overall body of work. The Bulldogs won four games last season and three in 2012, but improved to 4-0 this fall by beating the reigning Wolverine B East champion after beating reigning West champion Edwardsburg a week ago. Paw Paw (3-1) has lost only four regular-season games since the start of 2010. Click to read more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Also noted:
Edwardsburg 24, Plainwell 22 – The Eddies (3-1) bounced back from a two-point loss to Vicksburg by beating a Plainwell (3-1) team that had outscored its first three opponents by a combined 105-19.
Decatur 28, Gobles 14 – Decatur (4-0) has won 12 straight nonleague games over the last four seasons, including two over the always-solid Tigers (3-1).
Stevensville Lakeshore 17, St. Joseph 7 – The Lancers (4-0) are already starting to separate in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West having now beaten the Bears (3-1) in addition to reigning champion Portage Central in successive weeks.
Coldwater 35, Parma Western 28 – Coldwater is 4-0 for the first time since 1983 and got there by holding off a Parma Western (2-2) team that has lost two games by a combined eight points.
West Michigan
Rockford 28, Hudsonville 27
This was everything it was billed, the Rams winning for the fifth straight time but the matchup returning to “classic” status after a few one-sided contests. Hudsonville (3-1) scored late in the fourth quarter to pull within a point of the lead, but went for a 2-point conversion and the lead – and Rockford (4-0) made the stop. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Grand Rapids West Catholic 35, Hudsonville Unity Christian 21 – Unity Christian (2-2) has impressed early, but West Catholic (4-0) remains the elite of small Class B programs on this side of the state.
East Kentwood 39, Grandville 38 – The Falcons (4-0) are off to their best start since 2004, and Grandville (2-2) is only 11 points over two losses from the same record.
Whitehall 41, Mason County Central 27 – Whitehall (4-0) is off to its best start since 2006 thanks to avenging last season’s 14-point loss to Mason County Central (2-2).
Muskegon 37, East Grand Rapids 7 – Few prepared for league play like Muskegon (4-0), which opened with wins over Detroit Catholic Central, Grand Rapids Christian, Grandville and now the Pioneers (2-2).
Bay and Thumb
Millington 27, Frankenmuth 13
The rivalry remains revved, with Millington ending Frankenmuth’s 17-game Tri-Valley Conference East winning streak and on the Eagles’ home field. Frankenmuth (3-1) had last lost a league game in 2011, also to the Cardinals (4-0). Click for more from The Saginaw News.
Also noted:
Flint Beecher 32, Goodrich 13 – The Bucs (4-0) look like early favorites to push reigning champion Montrose in the Genesee Area Conference Red, although Goodrich (3-1) gets the Rams first, this week.
Coleman 29, Carson City-Crystal 26 – A pair of two-point losses kept Coleman (3-1) from last season’s Mid-State Activities Conference title, making this three-point win over the reigning champion Eagles (3-1) that much sweeter.
Grand Blanc 13, Brighton 10 – The Bobcats (3-1) are off to a great start toward repeating as champions of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West, with Brighton (2-2) last season’s runner-up.
Mount Pleasant 24, Midland 21 – This has turned into a Saginaw Valley Association rivalry, with four of the last five between the two decided by eight points or fewer; Mount Pleasant (3-1) has beaten Midland (2-2) four of those last five.
Greater Detroit
Ypsilanti Community 20, Chelsea 14
Coming off its first sub-.500 season in the last 16, Chelsea (3-1) has looked so far much more like its usual playoff team self. That makes this arguably the most impressive win of the new Ypsilanti Community’s first two seasons – and gives the Grizzlies (3-1) a nice edge in the tough Southeastern Conference White. Click for more from annarbor.com.
Also noted:
Dearborn Heights Robichaud 36, Saginaw Nouvel 13 – The Bulldogs (4-0) are off to another impressive start as they play for a fourth-straight playoff berth, while Nouvel (1-3) finds itself in a rare position of needing to win out to guarantee a return.
Oxford 21, Lake Orion 14 – What better way for Oxford (4-0) to prepare for reigning Division 1 champion and league favorite Clarkston than by beating last season’s Oakland Activities Association Red co-runner-up Lake Orion (2-2).
Birmingham Brother Rice 28, Warren DeLaSalle 21 – Rival Detroit Catholic Central is up next for Brother Rice (4-0), but the Warriors first had to survive a second-straight close one against the Pilots (3-1).
Warren Michigan Collegiate 20, Detroit University Prep 0 – Not only did the Cougars (4-0) avenge last season’s two-point loss to University Prep (3-1), but they also continued a now three-game shutout streak.
Mid-Michigan
Battle Creek Harper Creek 52, Charlotte 45 (3 OT)
This has been the best game of the four-week history of the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference, with Harper Creek rebounding from a Week 3 loss to league favorite Jackson Lumen Christi by surviving against the Orioles (1-3). Harper Creek (2-2) led by three scores at one point before Charlotte surged back and tied the score with less than a minute left in regulation. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
Also noted:
Lansing Everett 42, Holt 41 (OT) – These are two of five Capital Area Activities Conference Blue teams that look capable of making the playoffs, and Everett (2-2) can breathe just a bit easier while Holt (1-3) has its work cut out to stay alive.
Grand Ledge 20, Okemos 7 – The Chieftains (2-2) clearly are improved and another CAAC Blue playoff contender, but Grand Ledge (2-2) remains a step ahead.
St. Johns 42, Mason 21 – This solidified the Redwings (4-0) as DeWitt’s top competition in the CAAC Red, and left Mason (1-3) needing to win out against a manageable group after starting with four strong opponents.
Williamston 32, Eaton Rapids 13 – The Hornets (4-0) are back among the best in the Lansing area, off to their best start since their Finals runner-up season of 2010 after soundly defeating the Greyhounds (2-2).
Upper Peninsula
Negaunee had outscored Iron Mountain (2-2) by a combined score of 64-14 the last two seasons dominating this matchup while the Mountaineers worked through a couple of middling seasons. Iron Mountain looks up to one of the toughest schedules in the U.P., while the Miners (2-2), coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons, must rebound from two straight losses with a tough second half of the schedule looming. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Also noted:
Ishpeming 38, Ishpeming Westwood 14 – Make that 17 straight over Westwood (3-1) for the Hematites (4-0), who by way of their eight-game schedule need one more win to become the first team this season to qualify for the playoffs.
Menominee 49, Gladstone 6 – The Braves (3-1) remain off to a strong start, but Menominee (4-0) remains the team to beat in the Great Northern U.P. Conference.
Marquette 24, Escanaba 22 – The Redmen (3-1) kicked off the Great Northern U.P. Conference schedule by breaking a three-game losing streak to the Eskymos (1-3).
Lake Linden-Hubbell 28, Bessemer 20 – The Lakes improved to 3-1 while dropping Bessemer to the same in a battle of 2013 playoff teams.
Lower Up North
Tawas 34, Lincoln Alcona 20
Tawas looked like it might be on the upswing with a 2-1 start after winning a combined five games over the last two seasons. Beating a Lincoln Alcona team that had won 15 straight regular-season games made the point loud and clear. The Tigers (3-1) beat Tawas by 20 in 2013 and 36 points in 2012. Click for more from the Bay City Times.
Also noted:
Petoskey 42, Traverse City West 21 – Despite falling to favorite Cadillac last week, Petoskey (3-1) stayed in the Big North Conference mix by doubling up the Titans (1-3).
Cadillac 41, Alpena 28 – Make that 15 wins in 16 games for Cadillac (4-0), although Alpena (2-2) deserves a mention for its improvement.
Elk Rapids 38, Maple City Glen Lake 12 – Despite a 1-2 start, don’t forget the Elks (2-2), who beat solid Glen Lake (2-1) in impressive fashion.
Hillman 34, Rogers City 32 (2 OT) – The Tigers are figuring out every way to win, now doing so twice by more than 40 points and twice by a touchdown or less; Rogers City (1-3) is better than its record.
8-Player
Peck 53, Dryden 6
The way both had outscored their first three opponents, this looked like it could be higher scoring. But the reigning MHSAA champion Peck (4-0) impressed as much on defense as offense, scoring at least 48 points for the fourth time this fall while giving up its first score of the season. Dryden (3-1) hadn’t given up a point since opening night. Click for more from the Port Huron Times-Herald.
Also noted:
Deckerville 54, Morrice 26 – The Eagles (4-0) continued to shine against the Orioles (2-2), who playing 8-player for the first time after some success at the 11-player level.
Posen 30, Ewen-Trout Creek 24 – After opening with two losses, Posen (2-2) has bounced back well in pursuit of a second-straight playoff berth.
PHOTO: Mount Pleasant has won four of its last five against Midland, including 24-21 on Friday. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com).