Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 9 in Review
October 29, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Three months ago, more than 600 MHSAA football teams began this season with expectations. During the last nine weeks, many were realized.
So before diving full on into the playoffs, let’s take a few minutes to review the last of those regular-season feats.
Here’s a look at the Week 9 edition of our most significant results from every corner of Michigan:
Greater Detroit and Southeast
Detroit Cass Tech 20, Detroit Martin Luther King 14
Revenge belongs to Cass Tech, which fell to King in last season’s Detroit Public School League semifinals but handed the Crusaders (7-1) their first loss in this fall’s championship game. As expected, this turned into the closest either has played since the early weeks of this season. And it likely served as final preparation as both now pursue MHSAA championships and a PSL first – Cass Tech (9-0) is in Division 1 and King Division 2 for the playoffs, and there have never been multiple PSL MHSAA champs in the same season. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.
Also noted:
Clarkston 20, Southfield 10: Clarkston (8-1) won this clash of Oakland Activities Association champions and looks like an MHSAA Division 1 contender; Southfield (7-2) also looks good to make a Division 2 run.
Birmingham Brother Rice 20, Detroit Catholic Central 7: Both losses for DCC (7-2) this fall have come to Brother Rice (9-0) – this one in the Catholic League Central Prep Bowl.
Detroit U-D Jesuit 20, Birmingham Seaholm 17: The Cubs (5-4) broke a three-game losing streak to finish with a winning regular-season record for the first time since 2002 and earn their first playoff berth since 2001 – and did so by handing the first loss this season to OOA Blue champion Seaholm (8-1).
Northville 38, Walled Lake Western 31 (OT): Northville (8-1) has won 21 of its last 22 Kensington Lakes Activities Association games, but this overall KLAA championship game win caps what could be the team’s most impressive recent run. Western (8-1) could see the Mustangs again if both win their playoff openers.
Thumb and Bay
Lapeer West 14, Fenton 13
The final Lapeer West (7-2) football team claimed a share of the Flint Metro League title thanks to this win that included a blocked extra point. West, which will combine with Lapeer East next summer, ended Fenton’s 19-game league winning streak, although the Tigers (8-1) did also earn a share of the league title. Click to read more from the Flint Journal.
Also noted:
Clare 24, Sanford Meridian 13: Clare (7-2) started slowly with two losses this fall, but that didn’t change much in the Jack Pine Conference as the Pioneers ran their league winning streak to 26 and league title streak to seven straight; Sanford Meridian (7-2) is another of three teams from the conference that made the playoffs.
Montrose 37, Lake Fenton 0: Make that 20 straight Genesee Area Conference Red wins for Montrose (9-0) which claimed the title again by beating second-place Lake Fenton (7-2).
New Lothrop 47, Pewamo-Westphalia 33: The GAC Blue switched up its scheduling format this fall specifically so teams could face some tough nonleague opponents – and New Lothrop (9-0) took advantage of the opportunity and dealt P-W (8-1) its first loss.
Flint Carman-Ainsworth 42, Davison 0: After finishing second in the Saginaw Valley Association South last season, Carman-Ainsworth (8-1) moved up to first this fall thanks to this win over second-place Davison (4-5).
West Michigan
Muskegon 20, Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 7
These teams were tied for first in the O-K Black entering this matchup, and this was the closest game between the two since 2005 – although Muskegon ran its winning streak over Reeths-Puffer to 10 straight and will see the Rockets (7-2) again in this weekend’s Division 2 District opener. The victory clinched for the Big Reds (8-1) their first league title since 2008. Click to read more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
Grand Rapids West Catholic 21, Ada Forest Hills Eastern 20: The reigning MHSAA Division 5 runner-up Falcons (5-4) were able to earn a share of the O-K Bronze title and a playoff berth with this one-point edging of Forest Hills Eastern (4-5).
Grand Rapids Catholic Central 36, Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills 6: Both entered 5-3, with GRCC getting the necessary sixth win to make the playoffs and Ottawa Hills finishing 5-4 and missing out on an at-large bid.
Saugatuck 58, Gobles 13: The Indians (8-1) claimed the Southwestern Athletic Conference North title outright and made the playoffs for the fifth time in six seasons; Gobles (5-4) fell just short of its third straight postseason appearance.
Spring Lake 27, Shelby 0: The Lakers (8-1) followed up winning the Lakes 8 Conference title by handing the lone loss this fall to West Michigan Conference champion Shelby (8-1).
Southwest and Border
Watervliet 54, Lawton 20
The tie-breaker goes to Watervliet after these teams split the SAC South title last season. This is the fifth straight year that one of these two won the league championship. The Panthers are a combined 25-2 over the last three regular seasons, with this their first perfect run since 1999. Click to read more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Also noted:
Edwardsburg 56, Paw Paw 48: In arguably the best matchup in the state this week that didn't decide a league champion, the Eddies (9-0), winners of the Wolverine B West, handed the first loss to Wolverine B East champ Paw Paw (8-1)
Battle Creek St. Philip 54, Lawrence 50: These might be two of the top four 8-player teams in the state, and St. Philip (9-0) would host Lawrence (6-2) next week if both win their playoff openers.
Coldwater 54, Marshall 27: Not only did Coldwater gain toward its first playoff berth ever, but the Cardinals (5-4) also guaranteed their first winning regular season since 1989.
Hillsdale 42, Dundee 7: Hillsdale, Hudson and Ida all split the title in the competitive Lenawee County Activities Association, but this win also earned the Hornets (6-3) a spot in the playoffs while likely keeping the Vikings (5-4) out.
Lower Up North
Grayling 51, Boyne City 13
For the second straight season these Lake Michigan Conference rivals came into their Week 9 matchup undefeated, and for the second straight season Grayling came away a big winner and league champ. In fact, the Vikings are 33-3 over their last four regular seasons. Click to read more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Lincoln Alcona 50, Mio 12: Alcona (9-0) won big in this matchup of champions from the North Star League, although Mio (7-2) also will continue on to the playoffs –
for the 13th straight season.
Cadillac 14, Traverse City Central 7: The Vikings (9-0) clinched the Big North Conference title outright and finished perfect for the regular season for the first time since 2000, while keeping Traverse City Central (5-4) from gaining a playoff berth.
Elk Rapids 13, Kalkaska 12: The Elks (6-3) squeezed back into the playoffs for the first time since 2010, and Kalkaska (6-3) will continue as well for the second straight season.
Ogemaw Heights 13, Petoskey 12: One point got Ogemaw Heights (6-3) into the playoffs and kept Petoskey (5-4) out.
Upper Peninsula
Menominee 51, Marquette 7
Menominee secured its fifth straight season with at least nine wins and first perfect regular season since its last MHSAA title-winning fall in 2007. The Maroons scored 51 straight points on Marquette, which also made the playoffs at 5-3 but had to settle for a tie for second place in the Greater Northern UP Conference behind the Maroons (9-0). Click to read more from the Marquette Mining Journal.
Also noted:
Houghton 26, Hancock 22: The Gremlins (6-3) pushed past their rivals from across the Portage River to earn a playoff bid and win the Copper Bowl; Hancock finished 3-6 for the third straight season.
Kingsford 28, Escanaba 21: Kingsford (7-2) beat its traditional Week 9 opponent Eskymos (3-6) for the 14th straight season.
Munising 17, L'Anse 10: Munising (6-3) got back into the playoffs after missing last season, and impressively with a win over a L’Anse (7-2) team that hadn’t lost since Week 2.
Powers North Central 27, Stephenson 22: The Jets (7-2) ended a four-year losing streak to Stephenson (4-5), and in doing so kept the Eagles out of the playoffs.
Mid-Michigan
Holt 45, Grand Ledge 30
Holt’s playoff hopes took a big hit with a 13-point loss to Jackson in Week 8, but the Rams (5-4) rebounded against the rival Comets (4-5) in a must-win game for both. Holt did get in – after Grand Ledge’s Week 9 win kept the Rams out in 2012 – and also ended up in second place in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue. Click to read more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Grass Lake 17, Homer 14: Grass Lake (8-1) looks playoff-ready emerging from a strong Cascades Conference and then beating Homer (8-1) in the showcase game of the crossover series with the Big 8.
Eaton Rapids 41, Owosso 21: The Greyhounds (5-3) finished with their first winning regular season since 1993 – and thanks in part to beating Owosso (1-8), earned their first playoff berth as well.
Jackson Lumen Christi 42, Howell 35: After a Week 9 loss to Howell kept Lumen Christi (9-0) from an undefeated regular season in 2012, the Titans held off the Highlanders (5-4) in a game Howell needed to win to make the playoffs.
Ionia 20, Lake Odessa Lakewood 13: The Bulldogs (7-2) are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2006 and finished off the regular season by edging the rival Vikings (0-9).
Trophy Games
Each week the MHSAA highlights trophy games from around the state. Here are two in addition to the Copper Bowl mentioned above:
Little Brown Jug: Newberry vs. Sault Ste. Marie. This is the longest-running of the Little Brown Jug games in Michigan. Final: Sault Ste. Marie 41, Newberry 6.
Firefighter's Trumpet: Bay City Western vs. Bay City Central. The trophy for this matchup was created in 1990 but disappeared after the 2003 game until this fall. Final: Central 43, Western 20.
PHOTO: Detroit Cass Tech quarterback Jayru Campbell eludes the Detroit Martin Luther King defense during the PSL championship game. (Photo courtesy of the Detroit Public School League.)