Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 8 in Review
October 23, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The last week of the MHSAA football regular season is upon us. But Week 8 featured some significant firsts.
At Ypsilanti, visiting Lincoln beat the home team 27-20 to win the Southeastern Conference White for the first time. The league formed in 2000 and the Railsplitters were 0-9 only three seasons ago – and hadn't won a league title in any conference since 1987.
Further east Detroit Allen clinched its first playoff berth with a win over Ecorse. To the south, Adrian Lenawee Christian beat North Adams-Jerome for its sixth win, its most ever.
And those are just the program milestones. For the many high school players who enjoy just two seasons on varsity, every championship or playoff-qualifying win could be a first.
Here’s a look at some that surely were as we wrap up league title races and prepare for Sunday’s playoff selection.
West Michigan
Lowell 35, Grand Rapids Christian 34 (2 OT)
This season’s O-K White championship likely came down to a pair of overtimes between two teams that played at Ford Field last season. Reigning Division 2 runner-up Lowell (8-0) stopped a two-point conversion try by reigning Division 3 champ Grand Rapids Christian (6-2) after the game’s final score. The Red Arrows had fallen in two straight to the Eagles. Click to read more by the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Hudsonville 20, East Kentwood 9: Not only did the Eagles (5-3) give themselves an outside chance at sharing the O-K Red title, but they took a major step toward securing a first playoff berth since 2008. East Kentwood (5-3) can earn a league share too and also qualify for the playoffs by beating first-place Rockford this week.
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 32, Muskegon Mona Shores 28: Reeths-Puffer (7-1) kept pace with Muskegon atop the O-K Black heading into their league-deciding matchup this week, while Mona Shore (6-2) fell out of contention but can prepare for its first playoff appearance.
Belding 35, Sparta 14: Belding (5-3) kept its playoff hopes alive as it works to secure its first birth since 2007, while Sparta (5-3) is left to beat O-K Blue frontrunner Comstock Park this weekend to qualify.
Byron Center 16, Holland Christian 9: Byron Center (6-2) earned its first playoff berth since 2010 and set itself up to face Zeeland West this week for the O-K Green title. Holland Christian (4-4) fell to third place and hopes to make the playoffs with an at-large bid.
Lower Up North
Traverse City St. Francis 28, Maple City Glen Lake 21
St. Francis (5-3) kept its playoff hopes alive by edging the Northwest Conference champion and avenged a heavy blow dealt last season by Glen Lake (7-1); the Lakers’ 26-20 win over St. Francis in 2012 was among the most painful reasons the Gladiators didn’t make the playoffs for the first time since 1989. Click to read more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Boyne City 28, Elk Rapids 12: Boyne City (7-1) needed this one to set up this week’s Lake Michigan Conference-deciding game against Grayling; Elk Rapids (5-3) is tied for third, this week’s game in a must-win to automatically make the playoffs.
Grayling 33, East Jordan 26: See above for the Lake Michigan Conference race explanation, with Grayling now also 7-1 and East Jordan (4-4) hoping for a strong finish and at-large postseason bid.
Lake City 41, Evart 21: Lake City (7-1) looks good to finish second in the Highland Conference and Evart has locked down at least third, with a chance they’ll see each other again in the playoffs for the second straight year.
Traverse City Central 28, Ogemaw Heights 20: Four Big North Conference teams are 5-3, and these are two of them. Central faces Cadillac and Ogemaw Heights faces Petoskey this week in hopes of earning automatic playoff berths.
Southwest and Border
Portage Central 49, St. Joseph 28
Portage Central took advantage of a bevy of turnovers and got rolling during the second half to win the biggest game of the regular season in the southwest corner of the state. The Mustangs (8-0) clinched a share of the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West title with the win and can finish their first perfect regular season since 1993 by beating winless Benton Harbor this weekend. St. Joseph (7-1) remains among the top teams by playoff point average of those projected to make the Division 3 playoffs. Click to read more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Also noted:
Cassopolis 35, Niles Brandywine 12: This turned the Lakeland Athletic Conference championship into a shared title between these two, with Cassopolis (5-3) dealing Brandywine (7-1) its first loss of the fall.
Edwardsburg 36, Dowagiac 0: This deciding game in the Wolverine B West turned into a big win for undefeated Edwardsburg (8-0) over Dowagiac (6-2), last season’s champion.
Battle Creek Lakeview 33, Battle Creek Harper Creek 14: Lakeview (8-0), which began the season with five straight shutouts, has given up just a few points over the last three games on the way to earning a share of the SMAC East title; Harper Creek (6-2), with 14 points, tied for the most success against the Spartans’ defense.
Battle Creek St. Philip 68, Portland St. Patrick 14: St. Philip (8-0) handed St. Patrick (7-1) its first regular-season 8-player loss in winning the Southern Michigan League title outright.
Upper Peninsula
Lake Linden-Hubbell 16, Felch North Dickinson 8
Lake Linden-Hubbell’s quest to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2010 looked in doubt with the Lakes (5-3) needing two wins and North Dickinson and Crystal Falls Forest Park left on the schedule (they were a combined 13-1 entering last week). But the Lakes put the defensive clamps on North Dickinson (6-2), holding the Nordics to its fewest points since the 2010 playoffs. Click to read more from the Houghton Mining Gazette.
Also noted:
Crystal Falls Forest Park 38, Bessemer 20: The Eagles (8-0) avenged last season’s loss to the Miners (5-3) and in the process clinched a share of the Great Western Conference title.
Negaunee 38, Marquette 14: Negaunee (7-1) bounced back nicely after falling to Ishepming in Week 7, claiming the Diamond Jubilee Trophy, while Marquette (5-2) finishes with another tough one this week against Menominee.
Sault Ste. Marie 27, Kingsley 13: Sault Ste. Marie (5-3) has kept its playoff hopes alive over the last two weeks by beating teams with a combined record of 11-5. Kingsley (5-3) also needs a win this week to qualify.
Cedarville 21, Bellaire 16: Bellaire (5-3) looked like one of few that could beat Cedarville (7-1) this season, and the Eagles got close in a defensive battle.
Greater Detroit and Southeast
St. Clair 43, Marine City 33
St. Clair’s first win over Marine City since 2005 – and second in 22 seasons – earned a number of riches. The Saints (8-0) claimed the traveling Bell Trophy and also an outright Macomb Area Conference Gold championship, and guaranteed their best record since at least 1982. Marine City (7-1) still remains only a win away from its 16th straight season with at least eight. Click to read more from the Port Huron Times Herald.
Also noted:
Macomb Dakota 52, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 7: The battle for the MAC Red title – and traveling Superintendent’s Trophy – ended up more of the same for Dakota (8--0), which has given up only 42 points this fall. With one more win, Chippewa Valley (7-1) still can equal its most since 2006.
Birmingham Seaholm 28, Birmingham Groves 22: Seaholm (8-0) earned its second straight Oakland Activities Association Blue title by defeating second-place Groves (7-1) in the final league game of the season.
Northville 42, Canton 30: This was significant for a few reasons for Northville (7-1), which moved on to the Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship game be beating Canton (7-1) for the first time in its last eight tries.
Waterford Mott 26, Port Huron 20: The Marauders (8-0) flipped last season's finish, when Mott lost to Port Huron by three and finished second in the MAC White; this time Mott is first and the Big Reds (5-3) are runners-up.
Mid-Michigan
Lansing Sexton 27, Lansing Everett 14
Sexton (8-0) won the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue outright and the traveling Oak Chest trophy, and needs to beat its other city rival, Eastern High, to finish the regular season 9-0 for the first time since 1999. The Big Reds, a Class B schools with wins over seven Class A opponents, also has the highest playoff point average of teams projected to fall into Division 4 for the playoffs. Everett (5-3), last season’s CAAC Blue champion, must beat two-win Jackson this week to ensure a playoff spot. Click to read more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
DeWitt 13, Portland 7: DeWitt (8-0) no doubt was up for this one after losing two straight to the Raiders (7-1). Both are champions of their divisions of the CAAC, DeWitt in the Red and Portland in the White.
East Lansing 3, Grand Ledge 0: The Comets (4-4) needed to win out to make the playoffs automatically after an 0-3 start, but instead East Lansing (4-4) kept its slim hope alive after three straight losses.
Olivet 28, Constantine 14: The Eagles (7-1) kept themselves in the three-team mix atop the Kalamazoo Valley Association, with reigning Division 6 runner-up Constantine (5-3) now needing a win this week to qualify automatically for the postseason.
Ovid-Elsie 21, Freeland 15: The Marauders (6-2) quietly have bounced back from a 3-6 finish in 2012 to finish second in the Tri-Valley Conference Central. Third-place Freeland (6-2) also has made the playoffs, and they could meet again.
Bay and Thumb
Harbor Beach 56, Marlette 7
The deciding game for the Greater Thumb Conference East title belonged to Harbor Beach (7-1) early, as it scored the first two touchdowns and after Marlette’s score ran off 44 unanswered points. The Pirates pushed their league winning streak to 16 straight, while Marlette (7-1) still can equal its best finish of at least the last half century, 8-1 in 1975. Click to read more from the Port Huron Times Herald.
Also noted:
Millington 15, North Branch 7: The Cardinals (6-2) were at risk of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2003 before edging already-qualified North Branch (6-2).
Richmond 42, Yale 28: The Blue Devils (7-1) finished a perfect run through the Blue Water Area Conference and forced Yale (5-3) into a must-win situation to qualify for the playoffs automatically.
Flint Powers Catholic 48, Climax-Scotts 13: The Chargers (4-4) are hanging on to a hope of making the playoffs with an at-large bid, and handing Climax-Scotts (7-1) its first loss should help.
Vassar 35, Cass City 8: The Vulcans (5-3) moved one win closer to a fifth straight playoff berth, while dropping Cass City (4-4) into a much less favorable position.
Trophy Games
Each week, the MHSAA highlights trophy games around the state. Here are a few more in addition to those mentioned above:
Little Brown Jug: Warren Lincoln vs. Center Line. Lincoln made it two in a row and five of six over its MAC Bronze rival. Final: Lincoln 26, Center Line 19.
Sugar Bowl: Unionville-Sebewaing vs. Reese. The Rockets have owned this series of late, winning every season dating to 2006. Final: Reese 47, USA 0.
Spirit Bell: St. Louis vs. Ithaca. This one changes hands every time these schools meet in any varsity sport – which means the Sharks’ highly-ranked volleyball team could win it back tonight. Final: Ithaca 76, St. Louis 0.
Battle of the Panthers: Detroit University Prep vs. Detroit Plymouth Educational Center. This one is relatively new, with Detroit PEC playing football only since 2010 and University Prep since 2006. Final: University Prep 37, PEC 6.
The Curb: Berkley vs. Royal Oak. A piece of pavement was first awarded to the winner of this matchup in 2012. Final: Berkley 20, Royal Oak 18.
Ted Heusel Bowl: Ann Arbor Huron vs. Ann Arbor Pioneer. This trophy is named for the late longtime area broadcaster who also served as the district's school board president. Final: Pioneer 9, Huron 6.
Kiwanis Trophy: Madison Heights Madison vs. Madison Heights Lamphere. A quick 2-mile drive down John R Road is nearly all that separates these MAC Silver rivals. Final: Madison 30, Lamphere 0.
Colvin Cup: Grosse Ile vs. Riverview. Not since 1998 and 1999 has either team won this game two seasons in a row. Final: Riverview 45, Grosse Ile 42.
PHOTO: Lowell (in gray) needed two overtimes to edge Grand Rapids Christian 35-34 in Week 8. (Click to see more from High School Sports Scene.)