Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 4 in Review
September 24, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Just when we thought we'd figured out a few things about how this MHSAA football season might unfold ... we found out we don't know that much yet.
Upsets ruled Week 4. Of course, the teams that won probably don't see their victories that way. And in two months, some of what we consider surprises now might not be considered stunners any longer.
But check out how the unexpected played a major role as we began the second third of this fall's slate.
West Michigan
Lowell 31, Muskegon 20
Many were so caught up in Muskegon’s 45-0 win over Rockford two weeks ago that they likely didn’t give Lowell (4-0) a shot at catching the Big Reds (3-1). But Kyler Shurlow is fast becoming the next Red Arrows quarterback star, and he came up big in his team’s biggest game of the regular season. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Comstock Park 27, Allendale 25: The Falcons (3-1) have pushed Comstock Park to the brink the last two seasons, but the Panthers (4-0) survived again after a five-point win in their 2012 matchup.
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 14, East Kentwood 7: Reeths-Puffer (3-1) hasn’t made the playoffs since 2007, but is ascending after avenging last season’s 35-points loss to East Kentwood (2-2) to also equal its number of wins for the entire season.
Zeeland East 27, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 25: The undefeated Chix (4-0) had to survive a second straight game against Forest Hills Central (2-2) decided by four points or fewer.
Reed City 22, Newaygo 14: Make that 24 straight regular-season wins for the Coyotes (4-0), who by beating solid Newaygo (3-1) look even better to push it to 29.
Upper Peninsula
Escanaba 35, Marquette 14
This one was not just significant but probably shocking to fans who pay close attention to Upper Peninsula’s biggest schools. Escanaba entered 0-3 and Marquette 3-0, but the Eskymos made it three straight over the Redmen. Click to read more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
L'Anse 21, Hancock 20: The Purple Hornets (3-1) have one of the highest playoff point averages of any team expected to make the Division 8 playoffs, but Hancock (1-3) must win out to gain an automatic bid.
Negaunee 36, Iron Mountain 8: The Miners are 4-0 for the second straight season, but the Mountaineers (1-3) face their toughest start since 1990.
Norway 36, Manistique 34: Norway (2-2) is a win from equaling last season’s total after beating a 2012 playoff qualifier in Manistique (0-4).
Lake Linden-Hubbell 22, Bessemer 20: The Lakes (2-2) earned a shot at staying in the Great Western Conference title hunt, while dealing a blow to repeat hopes of Bessemer (3-1).
Mid-Michigan
Holt 31, Lansing Everett 21
Just when it looked like Holt (2-2) wouldn’t factor in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue race this season, the Rams beat the reigning champion and presumed favorite by scoring more points in one game than Everett (3-1) had given up in its other three games combined. Click to read more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Fowler 42, Bath 22: The Eagles (3-1) have outscored three opponents by a combined 106-50 since falling 40-0 to Mendon on opening night; Fowler also has beaten the Bees (2-2) in 24 straight.
Pinckney 20, Howell 10: Seeking their first winning record and playoff berth since 2001, the Pirates (3-1) are halfway there and off to their best start since that season; Howell remains in good shape at 3-1 as well.
Eaton Rapids 17, Jackson Northwest 7: The Greyhounds (3-1) have tied their most wins for a season since 1997, although Northwest (2-2) can’t be too frustrated with its most victories for a season since 2009.
Springport 18, Reading 13: The Spartans (3-1) lent Big 8 Conference leaders Jonesville and Homer a hand by downing last season’s champ, Reading (2-2).
Lower Up North
Standish-Sterling 27, Whittemore-Prescott 20
Standish-Sterling (4-0) continued its best start since 2008 with a late stand as Whittemore-Prescott (3-1) also played to remain perfect on the season. The Cardinals had won both games since the series was restarted after previously coming to close after the 1985 season. Click to read more from the Bay City Times.
Also noted:
Kinglsey 31, Frankfort 20: The Stags (3-1) set up next week’s rematch with reigning Northwest Conference champion Maple City Glen Lake by edging Frankfort (2-2) for the third time in four seasons.
Cheboygan 42, Ludington 14: The Chiefs moved to 3-1 for the second straight season by dealing a first loss this fall to Ludington (3-1), which remains off to its best start since 2004.
Mancelona 22, Central Lake 18: These teams combined to go 17-5 in 2012, and Mancelona (2-2) got back on the right foot by also pushing Central Lake to 2-2 and claiming the M-88 Trophy.
Traverse City St. Francis 34, Grayling 14: The Gladiators (3-1) ended Grayling’s 12-game regular-season winning streak and made it 10 of 11 over the Vikings (3-1).
Southwest and Border
Parchment 44, Constantine 26
Parchment has had only one playoff season over the last decade and not a lot of wins to be this excited about. The Panthers (2-2) hadn’t beaten Constantine (2-2) since the latter joined the Kalamazoo Valley Association in 2008, but Clay Wilkey averaged more than 20 yards per carry in leading Parchment to the big upset. Read more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Also noted:
Portage Central 38, Stevensville Lakeshore 28: This makes Portage Central (4-0) one the favorites in the Southwestern Michigan Activities Conference West, while leaving Lakeshore (2-2) to battle back from its worst start since 2004.
St. Joseph 17, Portage Northern 10: St. Joseph (4-0) is that other favorite in the SMAC West, thanks to a defense that is giving up 12 points per game and held the Huskies (3-1) to a season low.
Niles Brandywine 26, Bridgman 18: The Bobcats (4-0) made the playoffs last season for the first time since 2002 and haven’t slowed down, although Bridgman (2-2) gave them their toughest game to date.
Plainwell 44, Otsego 17: The Trojans (4-0) just keep rolling despite playing three 2012 playoff teams over their first four games; Otsego has little room for error at 2-2 and with tough opponents waiting in Weeks 8 and 9.
Greater Detroit and Southeast
Southfield 20, Oak Park 12
The Bluejays have arrived among the elite in the Detroit area. That seemed a pretty good bet after a four-point loss to Detroit Cass Tech during Week 1, but Southfield (3-1) took another big step by handing Oak Park (3-1) its first loss and shutting down a Knights offense averaging nearly 32 points per game entering the weekend. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.
Also noted:
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek 36, Lake Orion 7: Last season was the only other time during its 12-year history that Stoney Creek (4-0) had played powerful Lake Orion (3-1), and this one looked a lot different than that 35-point loss.
Birmingham Brother Rice 26, Warren DeLaSalle 24: Of a number of key Catholic League games, this one is the most telling; Brother Rice (4-0) might be the favorite again, but DeLaSalle (2-2) should push the other contenders as well.
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 28, Flint Powers Catholic 2: Few statewide are surging early like the Fighting Irish (4-0), who have outscored opponents by a combined 172-10. Powers (2-2) hadn’t scored fewer than 14 points before this game.
Saline 35, Ann Arbor Pioneer 3: Saline tied for the Southeastern Conference Red title last season and missed winning outright by a one-point loss to Pioneer (2-2); this time, the Hornets (4-0) might not be slowed.
Bay and Thumb
Midland 51, Saginaw Arthur Hill 21
Much has been discussed, and rightly so, about Arthur Hill’s resurgence this season. But it appears the Saginaw Valley Association North still belongs to Midland (4-0), which showed it in a big way. The reigning league champ put up its season high points total against a Lumberjacks team that had started 3-0 and not given up more than 18 points in a game. Click to read more from the Saginaw News.
Also noted:
Mount Pleasant 35, Midland Dow 28: The Oilers’ two-win season of 2012 is fast becoming a distant memory, with this win over Dow (3-1) putting Mount Pleasant (3-1) in a tie for first in the SVA North.
Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port 27, Unionville-Sebewaing 0: Hard to believe the Lakers (4-0) haven’t made the playoffs since 2009, but they’ve now won as many games as in all of 2012. Beating USA (3-1) also sets Laker up for a Greater Thumb Conference West showdown with Reese that could decide the title.
Peck 61, Lawrence 38: These are two of the top 8-player teams in the state, with Peck (4-0) now owning the highest playoff point average and Lawrence (2-1) looking like a playoff lock as well in its first season after making the move.
Richmond 42, Almont 35 (2 OT): Make Richmond (3-1) the favorite now in the Blue Water Area Conference after beating both Almont (3-1) and Croswell-Lexington.
Trophy Games
Each week the MHSAA highlights trophy games around the state. Here are a few in addition to the one mentioned above:
Little Brown Jug: Union City vs. Athens. These two play for a trophy that originated in 1947. Final: Union City 33, Athens 14.
Little Brown Jug: Homer vs. Concord. Like their Big Eight Conference colleagues mentioned just above, these two play for a similar prize. Final: Homer 44, Concord 6.
The Axe: Munising vs. Newberry. This newer traveling award originated in 2004. Final: Munising 28, Newberry 27.
Rocket-Rebel Trophy: Wyoming Kelloggsville vs. Wyoming Lee. These crosstown rivals both also play in the O-K Silver. Final: Kelloggsville 47, Lee 6.
Battle for Butch: Beaverton vs. Gladwin. These Jack Pine Conference rivals play for a stuffed dog stitched together in 1937. Final: Gladwin 48, Beaverton 14.
Holton-Hesperia Trophy: Holton vs. Hesperia. These two have been foes in various leagues going back half a century. Final: Hesperia 40, Holton 19.
PHOTO: Lowell ran past Muskegon 31-20 in a face-off of two of the most highly-regarded teams in the state. (Click to see more from High School Sports Scene.)