Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Semifinals in Review
November 19, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Here's what we got from Saturday's MHSAA 11-player Semifinals:
Four reigning champions headed back to Ford Field. Two rematches of 2011 championship games. And three teams – welcome Grand Rapids Christian, Portland and Detroit Loyola – that earned the opportunity to play on Thanksgiving weekend for the first time.
There's plenty more to come on all of that later this week (tune in Thursday for some holiday reading). Below are links to coverage from all 16 Semifinals, plus ours from the second-ever 8-player Final, a Deckerville triumph over Bellaire.
Division 1
Detroit Cass Tech 34, Lake Orion 27
The Technicians (11-2) are headed back to Ford Field to defend their 2011 championship thanks in part to two touchdown passes by sophomore Jayru Campbell, the star of that Final, and a late go-ahead score by sophomore Mike Weber. Lake Orion, in its third Semifinal in five seasons, finished 11-2. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.
Detroit Catholic Central 35, Rockford 6
Despite expectations it might be, this didn't turn out to be as close as DCC’s three-point win over the Rams (10-3) that sent the Shamrocks to last season’s Final. This time, DCC (9-4) led by two scores going into halftime and didn't allow another point. Click to read more from MLive Detroit.
Division 2
Birmingham Brother Rice 31, Wyandotte Roosevelt 3
Not that the Warriors haven't been cruising all season, but Brother Rice (11-2) always seems to hit another gear in the playoffs and now will play for a second-straight MHSAA championship. Roosevelt (11-2) finished its first Semifinal run since 2001 with its best record ever. Click to read more from the Detroit News.
Muskegon 34, Caledonia 21
Believe it or not, the Big Reds (12-1) haven’t been to a championship game since 2008. But they’re headed back for the fourth time in nine seasons after a couple of late defensive stops doomed the Fighting Scots (9-4). Click to read more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Division 3
Grand Rapids Christian 52, DeWitt 28
Grand Rapids Christian (12-1) got off to an incredible start and never looked back, scoring on six of their first seven possessions to earn their first championship game berth. DeWitt, making its eighth Semifinal appearance in 12 seasons, finished 10-3. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 28, Battle Creek Harper Creek 7
St. Mary’s (11-2) is headed back to Ford Field for the fourth straight season and hopes to win its second straight MHSAA title after beating Harper Creek (10-3) in the Semifinals for the second straight season. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.
Division 4
Grand Rapids South Christian 21, Comstock Park 7
South Christian (10-3) is headed back to the Finals for the fifth time, but first since winning Division 4 in 2002, after keeping Comstock Park (11-2) scoreless until the final minute. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Detroit Country Day 38, Saginaw Swan Valley 0
Country Day (11-2) earned its third trip to the MHSAA Finals in six seasons in dominating fashion. Yellowjackets running back Richard Wilson scored four times while his teammates contained the strong running attack of the Vikings (10-3). Click to read more from the Oakland Press.
Division 5
Grand Rapids West Catholic 20, Menominee 17
The Falcons (10-3) can earn their second championship in three seasons after scoring a late touchdown to edge Menominee at the Superior Dome. The Maroons (11-2) led late in the third quarter and again in the fourth before falling. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Portland 28, Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard 23
The Raiders (12-1) waited a long time to return to the Semifinals – their only other appearance was in 1975, the first year of MHSAA playoffs. But now they’ll continue on to their first championship game after coming back from an 11-point deficit to Gabriel Richard (11-2). Click to read more from the Lansing State Journal.
Division 6
Constantine 36, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 14
Constantine is headed back to Ford Field after finishing runner-up last season, thanks to its best defensive performance of the playoffs. Constantine (11-2) limited St. Mary (10-3) to its fewest points of the season. Click to read more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Ithaca 31, Shelby 14
Ithaca quarterback Travis Smith may have thrown three interceptions, but he also was part of four touchdowns (one run, three pass) as the Yellowjackets (13-0) earned their third-straight Final berth. Shelby (10-3) finished with 10 wins for the first time and made its first Semifinal appearance. Click to read more from the Lansing State Journal.
Division 7
Ishpeming 8, Pewamo-Westphalia 7
A made two-point conversion plus a number of defensive stops including two deep in its own territory were the difference as Ishpeming (12-1) earned a trip to Ford Field for the second time in three seasons. P-W, last season’s Division 7 runner-up, finished 9-4. Click to read more from the Marquette Mining Journal.
Detroit Loyola 54, Flint Beecher 6
Loyola’s Keymonn’e Gabriel scored three more touchdowns plus four two-point conversions to carry the Bulldogs (13-0) to their first MHSAA Final and give him 314 points this season – the second most in MHSAA history for one fall. Beecher, which made its first Semifinal appearance, finished 8-5. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.
Division 8
Beal City 25, St. Ignace 7
Six days after its volleyball team played for an MHSAA championship, Beal City’s football team will do the same after moving to 13-0 to tie its record for wins in a season and get back to Ford Field for the first time since 2009. St. Ignace ended 12-1 for the second straight season. Click to read more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.
Harbor Beach 32, Muskegon Catholic Central 27
The Pirates (12-1) earned their first trip to an MHSAA football championship game since 1991 and tied a school record for wins. Perennial power Muskegon Catholic Central finished 9-4. Click to read more from the Blue Water Sports Network.
8-Player
Deckerville 14, Bellaire 12
The Eagles capped their first season in 8-Player football with their first MHSAA championship, thanks in part to a two-point conversion run stop with less than a minute to play. Click for our Second Half coverage.
PHOTO: Detroit Cass Tech running back Mike Weber stretches for the go-ahead touchdown in the Technicians' Semifinal win Saturday at Troy Athens. (Click to see more at Terry McNamara Photography.)