Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
A Game for Every Fan: Semifinals
November 16, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Starting with this Saturday's Semifinals, every team left in the MHSAA football playoffs hits the road.
Some face longer trips than others. But all 32 hope their final journeys last long enough to land them at Ford Field for an extended Thanksgiving celebration.
Every Semifinal is Saturday, and all but the two games at Northern Michigan University kick off at 1 p.m. Check out Score Center for all game times and scores as they come in. Four games again will be streamed live on FoxSportsDetroit.com's Prep Zone: Muskegon vs. Caledonia, Battle Creek Harper Creek vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary, Portland vs. Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard and Flint Beecher vs. Detroit Loyola.
Below are expanded previews of all 16 Semifinal matchups, complete with some of the players to watch and what they and their teammates have accomplished so far.
Division 1
Rockford (10-2) vs. Detroit Catholic Central (8-4) at Battle Creek Central
This is a rematch of arguably last season’s most competitive Semifinal, a 23-20 overtime DCC win. Rockford eliminated favorite Clarkston last week to reach the Semifinals for the 11th time since coach Ralph Munger took over the team in 1992. The Rams again do well what they've always done – run hard with a variety of backs and keep opponents off the scoreboard. Rockford has given up more than 20 points only twice, and no opponent has scored more than 28. Senior Sam Reinke has run for 846 of the team’s 2,604 rush yards behind a line averaging nearly 240 pounds per blocker. They’ll have to stop University of Michigan commit Wyatt Shallman at defensive tackle. Shamrocks senior running backs Anthony Darkangelo and David Houle both played big parts in last season’s Semifinal win and are relied on again. Darkangelo has run for 1,036 yards and 14 scores this fall, with Houle adding 12 touchdowns.
Detroit Cass Tech (10-2) vs. Lake Orion (11-1) at Troy Athens
Reigning Division 1 champion Cass Tech rebounded nicely after losing unexpectedly to Detroit Martin Luther King during the Public School League playoffs. The Technicians are again loaded with talent – defensive back Jourdan Lewis has committed to the University of Michigan and lineman Dennis Finley will sign with Michigan State – and sophomore quarterback Jayru Campbell tied an MHSAA Finals record with five touchdown passes in last season’s win over DCC. Lake Orion won the Division 1 title in 2011 and is playing for its third Ford Field appearance in five seasons. The Dragons only loss this fall was by seven to Clarkston, and they've beaten some heavy hitters the last two weeks in Utica Eisenhower and Macomb Dakota. The defense is giving up only 202 yards per game, while the offense relies on three senior playmakers. Quarterback Derek DeLaura has thrown for 1,058 yards and 12 touchdowns, and 6-foot-6 receiver Chaz Miller is averaging 20.3 yards per catch with eight TDs. Running back Jacob Miller has rushed for 1,277 yards and 19 scores.
Division 2
Muskegon (11-1) vs. Caledonia (9-3) at Hudsonville
Save for a one-point loss to Zeeland East in Week 9, Muskegon has been considered by many all season as the team to beat in this division. Senior running back John King and senior quarterback Jalen Smith have gained plenty of yards, King running for 1,565 and 20 touchdowns and Smith for 854 and 12 scores. Wins over Orchard Lake St. Mary, Rockford, Lowell (twice) and Midland have been most impressive, and teams rushing the ball have had a tremendously tough time gaining only 70 yards per game. This game could be strength on strength, as Caledonia’s rush game chews up yards in bunches – three Fighting Scots have gained at least 830, and four are averaging at least 4.5 yards per carry. Senior quarterback Ryan Zoet doesn't just direct traffic – he’s the team’s leading rusher with 917 yards plus 20 touchdowns on the ground, and he’s thrown for 1,248 yards and five more scores.
Birmingham Brother Rice (10-2) vs. Wyandotte Roosevelt (11-1) at Gibraltar Carlson
Brother Rice won last season’s Division 2 championship on the shoulders of running back Devin Church, and the back carrying the load this time is junior Brian Walker. He’s rushed for 1,352 yards and 20 touchdowns for an offense that’s gained 4,214 yards in total offense. As usual, that’s come against incredible competition, with Brother Rice’s best win likely a 20-14 victory over Detroit Catholic Central. Senior linebacker Jon Reschke, who has committed to Michigan State, leads a defense giving up only 234 yards per game. Aside from a midseason loss to Brownstown Woodhaven that Roosevelt avenged in the District opener, its slate of results includes plenty of single-digit scores for opponents. The Bears held teams to eight or fewer points eight times, and in its 11 wins gave up only seven points per game. Senior quarterback Kevin Matejko has been solid on the other side of the ball with 1,589 yards and 18 touchdowns passing.
Division 3
DeWitt (10-2) vs. Grand Rapids Christian (11-1) at East Kentwood
Grand Rapids Christian might be the scariest offensive team in Michigan, with 144 of its 498 points coming over the last three weeks against teams that were a combined 26-4. Junior receiver Drake Harris already has committed to Michigan State, and he’s averaging 20.4 yards per catch – which is an even bigger deal when he has 76 catches and 20 that have gone for touchdowns. Getting it there is senior Alex VanDeVusse, who has thrown for 3,226 yards and 35 touchdowns and run for 652 yards and 12 scores. DeWitt is known for all-state quarterbacks, and has a pair of standouts in junior Jacob Heath and sophomore Jacob Johnson. Heath filled in for six games while Johnson was injured during the regular season, throwing for 1,428 yards and 15 scores. Johnson returned in Week 9, and in just more than five games has thrown for 998 yards and 13 touchdowns and run for six more TDs. Senior Ryan Anderson has benefited from both, catching 68 passes for 1,092 yards and 14 scores.
Battle Creek Harper Creek (10-2) vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary's (10-2) at Chelsea
After just missing making Ford Field last season with a four-point Semifinal loss to eventual champion St. Mary's, Harper Creek gets another chance with a rematch. The Beavers aren't scoring as many points as last season, although still 32.5 a game, but they’re giving up only 13 – and getting nearly three turnovers a game, with 17 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries. Senior Kasey Carson carries much of the load on offense, with 1,799 yards and 25 touchdowns on the ground. St. Mary's won last season running over opponents too, and two of its top three rushers from last season’s Final have been eating up yards again – senior Grant Niemiec has run for 1,587 yards and 23 touchdowns and senior Parker McInnis has gained 1,236 yards with 18 scores. St. Mary's owns wins this season over Division 1 semifinalists Detroit Cass Tech and Detroit Catholic Central.
Division 4
Comstock Park (11-1) vs. Grand Rapids South Christian (9-3) at Grand Rapids Houseman Field
Comstock Park won its District in coach Mark Chapman’s first season of 2010, added a Regional title last fall, and this season won both plus its league championship – while knocking out favorite Grand Rapids Catholic Central two weeks ago. Senior quarterback Jake Brown is tough to stop, with 1,224 yards and 26 touchdowns rushing and 1,598 yards and 11 TDs passing. South Christian eliminated previously-undefeated Paw Paw and Dowagiac before beating Three Rivers last week, and also is keyed by a talented run/pass quarterback. Sophomore Jon Wassink has rushed for a team-high 713 yards and nine touchdowns and thrown for 2,564 yards and 23 scores.
Saginaw Swan Valley (10-2) vs. Detroit Country Day (10-2) at Ortonville Brandon
After dropping two games midway through the regular season, Swan Valley has dominated, scoring at least 35 points in all of the next six while giving up more than 14 only once. This is its third Semifinal berth in seven seasons, and it’s been made possible in part by the running of sophomore Alex Grace, who has rushed for 2,091 yards and 27 touchdowns. Country Day is looking to get back to the Finals after back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2007 and 2008. Junior quarterback Tyler Wiegers has been tremendously efficient and careful with the ball, completing 62 percent of his passes for 1,822 yards and 18 touchdowns with just one interception. Junior running back Richard Wilson has run for 1,074 yards and 24 scores.
Division 5
Menominee (11-1) vs. Grand Rapids West Catholic (9-3) at Northern Michigan’s Superior Dome
Former player and assistant coach Joe Noha has done retired longtime coach Ken Hofer proud in bringing Menominee back to the Semifinals in his first season after taking over the program. The Maroons are a one-point loss to Kingsford from being undefeated and are getting contributions from a variety of players led by leading rushers James Brown and Devon Harris, both juniors. West Catholic rebounded from a 1-3 start to reach its third straight Semifinal and beat playoff opponents that were a combined 28-2. The Falcons have a 1,000-yard running back in junior Andy Corey (1,435 yards, 11 TDs), a 2,000-yard quarterback in sophomore Travis Russell (2,143 yards and 20 TDs) and a 1,000-yard receiver in senior David Kuzma (1,084 yards and 11 TDs).
Portland (11-1) vs. Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard (11-1) at Howell
Portland is back in the Semifinals for the first time since the first MHSAA playoffs in 1975, and after knocking off reigning champion Flint Powers last week looks like the team to stop. That lone loss came to reigning runner-up Lansing Catholic, by nine, and Portland also beat Division 3 Semifinalist DeWitt big while going 6-1 against playoff teams so far. Portland is known for tough runners, and junior Jacob Kimmell is the latest; he’s gained a team-high 1,278 yards and scored 17 touchdowns on the ground. But the Raiders can’t look past Gabriel Richard. The Fighting Irish handed Pontiac Notre Dame its first loss of the season in Week 9 and since has cruised by beating its three postseason opponents by a combined 89-6. Senior Ashton Hundley runs behind a sizable offensive line and has gained 1,178 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground.
Division 6
Shelby (10-2) vs. Ithaca (12-0) at Ferris State
Coming out of the West Michigan Conference, Shelby has seen as strong of competition as any team playing in the small-school divisions. And that makes the success of senior running back Nathan Lentz all the more impressive – he’s run for 1,155 yards and 17 touchdowns, caught 20 passes and scored on four of those, and also has a touchdown apiece off kickoff, punt and interception returns. But the Tigers' defense must be up to the challenge of stopping two-time reigning champion Ithaca, which has won 40 straight games and scores nearly 51 points per. Junior quarterback Travis Smith is one of the best in the state and has thrown for 2,264 yards and 36 touchdowns while running for another 732 yards and 13 scores.
Constantine (10-2) vs. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (10-2) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
The route taken by reigning runner-up Constantine is comparable to that of any team still alive. It has beaten three playoff opponents that were a combined 29-1 coming into those games. Constantine doesn't trick anyone with its strategy – the team has run for 5,096 yards and thrown for 405, with senior Ben Mallo gaining 1,627 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground and senior Payton White adding 1,324 yards and 27 scores. St. Mary is looking to return to the Finals for its third time in eight seasons and has won at least 10 games for the fourth time in five years. Its imbalance on offensive is similar – 4,133 rushing yards and 174 through the air. But there are a few more people carrying the load with five players running for between 580 and 725 yards, in part because teammates have picked up the slack after the season-ending injury to leading rusher and scorer Josh Czarniowski.
Division 7
Ishpeming (11-1) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (9-3) at Northern Michigan’s Superior Dome
Ishpeming, looking to get back to Ford Field for the second time in three seasons, has given up more than 14 points only once – in its lone loss, to Negaunee – and has yielded only 24 total in three playoff games. Senior Eric Kostreva is a starting linebacker and the team’s leading rusher with 1,153 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. After making the Finals last fall for the first time, P-W recovered from two late losses to get in position to return. The names to know are different this fall, but they’re equally talented. Junior quarterback Kyle Nurenberg has run for 563 yards and 15 scores and thrown for 762 and 10 TDs, and senior tailback Jered Myszak has rushed for 1,179 yards and nine touchdowns.
Detroit Loyola (12-0) vs. Flint Beecher (8-4) at Fenton
Loyola is back in the Semifinals for the second straight season and follows the lead of one of the top scorers in MHSAA football history. Senior Keymonn’e Gabriel has run for 2,195 yards and 32 touchdowns, and with his 48 two-point conversions has 288 points total – tied for third-most in MHSAA history for a single season. Beecher got into the playoffs as a 5-4 additional qualifier, but limited Hamady and Saginaw Nouvel to a combined 22 points over the last two weeks. The winner will celebrate a historic first. Neither has played in an MHSAA championship game.
Division 8
St. Ignace (12-0) vs. Beal City (12-0) at Traverse City’s Thirlby Field
The Saints are playing to reach the Finals for the first time since 1985 and got past a major obstacle in formerly undefeated Felch North Dickinson last week. St. Ignace presents opponents a number of weapons to stop – three backs have run for at least 630 yards and 10 touchdowns, and junior quarterback Travis Snyder has thrown for 1,443 yards and 25 scores. Beal City is a two-time MHSAA champion and is scoring 40 points per game while giving up only 11. Senior Sam Schafer plays a large part in both as a starting linebacker and quarterback who has thrown for 1,546 yards and 19 TDs.
Muskegon Catholic Central (9-3) vs. Harbor Beach (11-1) at Alma College
Harbor Beach has beaten two excellent teams the last two weeks in New Lothrop and Waterford Our Lady, and is led by dangerous junior quarterback Eli Kraft (740 yards and 14 TDs rushing, 1,129 yards and 11 TDs passing). But the Pirates will have their toughest challenge yet in MCC, which defeated reigning champion Mendon last week and reigning runner-up Fowler the week before. The Crusaders have run for 3,447 yards, led by junior Alex Lewandoski’s 1,121.
PHOTO: Portland players celebrate their Regional title after beating reigning MHSAA Division 5 champion Flint Powers Catholic on Friday. (Click to see more at HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)