Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: District Finals in Review
November 5, 2012
Two down. Two to go.
The postseason portion of this fall's Drive for Detroit is halfway complete. And while a number of contenders have traveled this far many times before, some of the most captivating moments are being created by teams make this leg of the journey for the first time.
For example, River Rouge. The Panthers have one of the strongest basketball traditions in MHSAA history. But before this fall, they'd never won nine football games, much less 11, in one season.
Yet, here they sit, 11-0, with their first District title thanks to a 44-22 win over Almont – an 11-game winner a season ago.
See below for a number of other notable results from this weekend's District Finals, plus a thought on all four 8-player Regional championship games. And click for the rest of last week's scores plus updated schedules as the drive gears up for the third round.
Division 1
Plymouth 20, Livonia Churchill 14
Churchill (10-1) entered the postseason with the highest playoff point average in Division 1, with Plymouth (9-2) tied for 15th. But the Wildcats locked down a Chargers offense that had averaged 44 points per game and extended their sixth-straight playoff run another week. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.
Also noted:
Rockford 35, Holland West Ottawa 28 – The Panthers (8-3) gave the Rams a close call for the second time this season, after Rockford (9-2) won by only 10 in their first meeting Sept. 28.
Lake Orion 10, Utica Eisenhower 7 – The Dragons (10-1) scored with just under two minutes to play after trailing Eisenhower (8-3) nearly the entire game.
Division 2
Muskegon 15, Lowell 13
This District Final between two of Michigan's most celebrated powers came down to redemption for what might be the happiest kicker in the state this week. Adrian Briseno missed an extra point and had another blocked, but hit a 27-yard field goal with under two minutes to play to push his Big Reds (10-1) past the Red Arrows (8-3). Click to read more from the Muskegon Chronicle.
Also noted:
Caledonia 23, East Lansing 22 (OT) – After seeing a potential game-winning field blocked late, the Fighting Scots (8-3) outlasted the Trojans (7-4) for their first District title since 2006.
Wyandotte Roosevelt 9, Taylor Truman 0 – The Bears (10-1) lost a three-way tie-breaker to both Brownstown-Woodhaven and Taylor Truman (9-2) for home-field advantage during this District, but beat both Downriver League foes en route to the title.
Division 3
Grand Rapids Christian 68, Zeeland West 44
The Eagles (10-1) have put up massive point totals all season – only once have they failed to score at least 34. But Grand Rapids Christian saved its season-high to offset Zeeland West, which scored at least 38 points in all but one game but couldn’t keep pace this time. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
DeWitt 45, Linden 44 (6 OT) – The Panthers (9-2) have now used a combined seven overtimes to defeat two of the top four from the Flint Metro Conference, the co-champ Eagles (9-2) and Lapeer West.
Tecumseh 26, Milan 6 – After four straight games decided by three points or fewer, the Indians (9-2) broke one open and ended a perfect season for Milan (10-1).
Division 4
Grosse Ile 70, Dearborn Heights Robichaud 51
One Twitter report had the third quarter of this game lasting nearly an hour. These teams combined for 121 points, good for eighth-most in MHSAA 11-player history for games during which the losing team scored at least 40 (although the record book has not been updated to include all games from this season). At the end, Grosse Ile (10-1) had 10 wins for the second straight season, and Robichaud (9-2) finished its best season since 2007. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.
Also noted:
Grand Rapids South Christian 42, Dowagiac 23 – The Sailors (8-3) won their first District title since 2005 by handing the Chieftains (10-1) their first and only loss of the season.
Comstock Park 16, Grand Rapids Catholic Central 7 – This was the third playoff meeting between these two over the last eight seasons, and first win of the three for the Panthers (10-1); the loss was the first and only this fall for GRCC (10-1).
Division 5
Newaygo 30, Reed City 29
What a fall it’s been for the Lions. At 9-2, they’ve tied the school record for wins set in 1994. And they handed Reed City (10-1) its first and only loss to claim their first District title since that season. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Grand Rapids West Catholic 13, Muskegon Oakridge 6 – This is only a slightly-lesser upset than the above because although Oakridge entered 10-0, West Catholic (8-3) has made at least the Semifinals the last two seasons.
Flint Powers 34, Frankenmuth 0 – These two both entered 10-0, but reigning champion Powers (11-0) continues to look like a heavy favorite to finish 14-0.
Division 6
Constantine 40, Schoolcraft 27
The Eagles (10-1) had fended off their share of challengers on the way to a 10-0 start, with five wins by 12 points or fewer. The first team to get that close was Constantine all the way back in Week 2. Schoolcraft won that game 42-32, but the reigning runner-up Falcons (9-2) forced the Eagles to play catch-up most of Friday. Click to read more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Also noted:
Montrose 33, Millington 28 – The Rams (10-1) keep surviving, with this win over the Cardinals (9-2) their third straight by five points or fewer.
Shelby 26, Maple City Glen Lake 0 – Experience gained from a tough league slate continues to show through for the Tigers (9-2), who ended the best season since 2001 for Glen Lake (9-2).
Division 7
Ishpeming 32, Mancelona 0
Aside from a Week 7 loss to Negaunee, the Hematites (10-1) have thoroughly dominated the rest of their competition this fall. Mancelona, coming in 10-0, looked to be one of the toughest obstacles. But for the second time in three seasons, Ishpeming ended the Ironmen’s season – and in the process won its fourth straight District title. Click to read more from Marquette Mining Journal.
Also noted:
Decatur 34, Lawton 3 – The Raiders (9-2) previously lost to Lawton 38-7 on the first night of Southwestern Athletic Conference South play; Lawton (9-2) went on to split the league title, but Decatur owns the District championship.
Saginaw Nouvel 31, Reese 16 – The reigning champion Panthers (9-2) live on thanks to their best win of a difficult run; Nouvel handed the Rockets (10-1) their lone loss.
Division 8
Mendon 28, Climax-Scotts 6
These two have met in the playoffs four times over the last decade – which makes sense as they are two of the winningest small-school programs in the state during that time. But Mendon has won all four postseason meetings, and with this victory extended its winning streak to 25 including last season’s championship game. Click to read more from the Sturgis Journal.
Also noted:
Harbor Beach 56, New Lothrop 20 – The Pirates (10-1) moved to 21-2 over the last two seasons, while handing New Lothrop its first loss; the Hornets finished 10-1 and are 32-3 over the last three years.
Beal City 28, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 21 – They play in different leagues, but these rivals make a point of facing off each season; the Aggies (11-0) also beat the Irish (9-2) on opening night, 38-19, and own four straight over their familiar foes.
8-player (Regionals)
Rapid River 22, Cedarville 14
A lot can change in five weeks. See Rapid River football, 2012. On Sept. 28, Cedarville (10-1) beat the Rockets 72-12 in what eventually became a deciding game for the Bridge Alliance 8-Man Football League title. But the reigning MHSAA runner-up made up plenty of ground to win its second-straight Regional title and improve to 9-2. Click to read more from RRNSports.com.
Also noted:
Bellaire 48, Owendale-Gagetown 0 – After falling in last season’s Regional Final, the Eagles (8-3) left no doubt this time in ending the Bulldogs’ run at 8-3.
Deckerville 50, Kinde-North Huron 0 – The Eagles (10-1) have dominated in this first season in the 8-player division; this was their second win this fall over North Huron (6-5).
Portland St. Patrick 34, Battle Creek St. Philip 28 – The Shamrocks (11-0) beat the Tigers (7-4) for the third time and second straight by seven or fewer points.
PHOTO: Birmingham Brother Rice junior running back Brian Walker surges ahead during the Warriors' 38-6 win over Oxford in Division 2. (Click to see more, plus photos from Detroit Country Day/Pontiac Notre Dame Prep and Plymouth/Churchill at Terry McNamara Photography.)