Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 6 in Review

October 2, 2012

In coachspeak, it's referred to as "sense of urgency."

And the numbers back up why that phrase is thrown around frequently when the calendar turns to October.

After Week 6, there are 57 teams qualified for the MHSAA football playoffs – out of 73 total that had opportunities last weekend to earn automatic berths. And 101 can join that fortunate group with victories Friday or Saturday.

Those totals together would make up more than half of this season's playoff field, and with chances running out for teams sitting on the edge. Here's a look at how some of those teams kept their destinies in their own hands, with only three games to play before the postseason begins.

Greater Detroit

Orchard Lake St. Mary 24, Birmingham Brother Rice 14

Make that wins the last two weeks over the reigning Division 1 (Detroit Cass Tech) and Division 2 (Brother Rice) champions by the reigning MHSAA Division 3 champ Eaglets. Running back Grant Niemiec continues to build on that strong championship performance, and ran for three scores in this Detroit Catholic League Central clash. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.

Also noted:

Ann Arbor Pioneer 14, Temperance Bedford 13 – The Pioneers took a solid step toward repeating as Southeastern Conference Red champions with their second one-point win in league play.

Saline 20, Monroe 13 – Saline had lost all three games against Monroe since they both moved into the SEC Red, and looks good for its best season since 2008.

Brownstown Woodhaven 64, Wyandotte Roosevelt 36 – Although not massive, call this an upset nonetheless as the Warriors had lost six straight to their Downriver League foes, who were 5-0.

Romeo 21, Port Huron 20 – Romeo stayed alive for an automatic playoff berth at 3-3 by beating the Macomb Area Conference White co-leader.

Thumb and Bay

Flint Powers 42, Davison 28

The Chargers won a big one in the wake of retired coach Jack Pratt’s recent death; his funeral was Friday morning. These two and Carman-Ainsworth were all undefeated in the Saginaw Valley Association South heading into the night, and Powers’ win set up this week’s game against FCA as the league title decider. Click to read more from the Flint Journal.

Also noted:

Lake Fenton 34, Goodrich 7 – The Blue Devils continue to roll in the Genesee Area Conference Red, outscoring league opponents 190-21.

Bay City Western 28, Midland Dow 20 – The Warriors needed this one to keep pace with that other Midland team, the Chemics, with whom Western is tied atop the SVA North.

Lapeer West 27, Holly 21 (OT) – Lapeer West moved to 4-1, just barely, and remains a game behind Swartz Creek in the Flint Metro League standings.

Hemlock 19, Saginaw Swan Valley 7 – The Huskies have emerged as tops in the Tri-Valley Conference Central, just in time to play second-place Freeland this week to decide the title.

Mid-Michigan

Hartland 35, Brighton 14

The Eagles are quickly becoming one of the best stories in the state this fall, and are off to a 6-0 start for the first time since, well, potentially ever (at least since 1950, the start of the team’s records at Michigan-football.com). They are tied for first in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West, with co-leader Grand Blanc up next. Click to read more from the Livingston County Daily Press & Argus.

Also noted:

Ithaca 33, Carrollton 21 – Make it 34 straight wins for the Yellowjackets, tied for sixth in MHSAA football history, and with no one else likely to slow them during the regular season.

Lansing Everett 6, East Lansing 0 – The Vikings are one game through a tough three-game string that will determine if they go 9-0 and win the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue.

Lansing Sexton 21, Holt 7 – Sexton’s playoff hopes appeared done and Holt’s revived, but both are now 3-3 although still facing tough must-win games down the stretch.

Beal City 43, Lake City 8 – Both were undefeated coming into the weekend, but it appears the Aggies will cruise to the Highland Conference title.

West Michigan

Lowell 42, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 24

Forest Hills Central carried a lead into the fourth quarter, but Lowell intercepted four passes during the final period to remain tied for first atop the O-K White. Circle the Week 9 game against Grand Rapids Christian as the likely decider of this league’s title. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted:

Hopkins 34, Grandville Calvin Christian 21 – The Vikings are 6-0 and clinched a share of the O-K Silver by beating the second-place Squires.

Montague 22, Shelby 15 (OT) – Shelby had the highest playoff point average among likely Division 6 teams, and Montague was 13th; this should change that up dramatically.

Fruitport 21, Grant 14 – The Trojans also are 6-0 and now owners of a share of the Lakes Eight Conference title thanks to this win over second-place Grant.

Rockford 24, Holland West Ottawa 14 – The Rams have seemingly laid low after a 1-2 start, but of course you shouldn't forget about them; Rockford is 4-2 and tied for first in the O-K Red.

Lower Up North

Traverse City Central 42, Traverse City West 28

Central took one more giant step toward winning its first league title since these schools were still one, in 1996. The Trojans now sit atop the Big North Conference, needing only a victory over winless Gaylord in Week 8 to clinch a share of the title. This win also earned Central the Nowak-Olson Memorial Trophy. Click to read more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Also noted:

Grayling 41, Elk Rapids 22 – This helped sort out the top of the Lake Michigan Conference, with Grayling moving to 6-0 to stay tied for first with Boyne City.

Mancelona 36, Pickford 8 – These teams were both 5-0 entering this nonconference matchup, but Mancelona’s defense kept to its eight-points-given-up per-game average.  

Maple City Glen Lake 29, Kingsley 7 – Glen Lake is in line for its first league title since 2001 after knocking off the proposed favorite in 4-2 Kingsley.

West Branch Ogemaw Heights 24, Cadillac 21 – Ogemaw Heights needed a win to get to 3-3 and stay alive for an automatic playoff bid, and for all intents and purposes knocked Cadillac (4-2) out of contention for a possible share of the Big North Conference title.  

Southwest and Border

Schoolcraft 19, Battle Creek Pennfield 16

Schoolcraft’s first win over Pennfield since 2009 possibly lines it up for a first 9-0 regular season since 2001, and nearly assures the Eagles will win the Kalamazoo Valley Association title as they’ve now beaten all three teams tied for second place. Schoolcraft didn’t take the lead in this one until 1:34 remained in the fourth quarter. Click to read more in the Kalamazoo Gazette.

Also noted:

Buchanan 28, Niles Brandywine 22 – The Bucks look good to finish first in the Lakeland Conference with one league game to play.

Hartford 27, Lawton 24 – Not much has cleared up in the Southwestern Athletic Conference South, where these two are among four tied for second in a league that has five teams 5-1 or better overall.

Climax-Scotts 7, Pittsford 6 – These two are the best in the Southern Central Athletic Association, with Climax-Scotts just one point better in this game that should eventually decide the champion.

Mattawan 49, St. Joseph 14 – The Wildcats moved to 6-0 and kept pace with Stevensville Lakeshore atop the Southwest Michigan Athletic Conference West; circle Oct. 12, the night they meet.

Upper Peninsula

Cedarville 72, Rapid River 12

For the second straight week, Cedarville downed in a big way another contender in the Bridge Alliance 8-Man Conference, this time reigning MHSAA 8-Player runner-up Rapid River. Todd Hecht scored on two runs, two catches and a fumble return. Click to read more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Also noted:

Iron Mountain North Dickinson 55, Crystal Falls Forest Park 27 – No league standing was at stake as they play in difference conferences, but North Dickinson did end an eight-game losing streak against the Trojans.

L’Anse 36, Ironwood 28 (OT) – Only 2-7 a year ago, the Purple Hornets are 6-0 and contending for the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference title with Eagle River Northland Pines (Wis.).

Iron Mountain 12, Manistique 7 – Both are still alive for the playoffs, but this was key; Iron Mountain moved to 4-2 while Manistique fell to 3-3.

Kingsford 21, Marquette 14 – The Flivvers have won both of their first two Great Northern Upper Peninsula Conference games by seven or fewer points, but look like the favorites with two to go.

Trophy Games

Every week, the MHSAA highlights Trophy Games from around the state. Here are a few more to join the Traverse City West/Central matchup above:

Friendship Trophy: This replaced the Oil Can, which originated in 1930, as the award played for annually by Sparta and Coopersville. Final: Coopersville 35, Sparta 14.

Bobcat-Bulldog Award: Petersburg-Summerfield had claimed this the last four seasons against rival Ottawa Lake Whiteford. Final: Whiteford 40, Petersburg-Summerfield 26.

Hinker Bell: Menominee has now held onto this trophy against Escanaba for 14 straight seasons. Final: Menominee 42, Escanaba 17.

PHOTO: Orchard Lake St. Mary running back Parker McInnis pulls away from Brother Rice defenders Jason Alessi (4) and Lucas Cherocci (46) during this weekend's 24-14 Eaglets win. (Click to see more at Terry McNamara Photography.)