Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Playoffs: District Finals in Review

December 16, 2011

Three weeks remain in this MHSAA football season, and just two for our 8-player teams. That means we’re down to 68 total still practicing and pursuing championships either in two weeks at the Superior Dome or three at Ford Field.

Here’s a look at some of the best from the playoffs' second weekend, plus links to coverage from the biggest games and my take on those to watch in every division this weekend. 

Again, if I missed a game or a highlight I should've mentioned, post below and let us know. And click here for results, schedules and more. (Rankings below by The Associated Press' panel of media voters.)

GREAT EIGHT

DIVISON 1: Detroit Catholic Central 21, Canton 14 – This has become something of an expected matchup, with these two facing off in the playoffs four times over the last 10 seasons, including two of the last three. DCC has won all four matchups, and this time the Shamrocks were ranked No. 2 and Canton No. 6.

DIVISION 2: Lowell 36, Muskegon 7 – The Red Arrows increased their playoff winning streak over Muskegon to three straight. Lowell came in No. 2 and Muskegon No. 3, and the Red Arrows now become the heavy state favorite with No. 1 Farmington Hills Harrison also losing (see below).  

DIVISION 3: East Grand Rapids 45, Grand Rapids Christian 27 – Their 50-49 game in Week 9 (which Grand Rapids Christian won) made statewide waves, but this one was not nearly as close. The Pioneers have three losses this season, but appear to be hitting the gear that has resulted in five straight MHSAA titles.

DIVISION 4: Battle Creek Pennfield 14, Lansing Sexton 6 – By rankings this wasn’t an upset. But considering Sexton shared a league title with three Class A schools – including one still alive in Division 3 – and that the Big Reds beat Pennfield 47-14 in last year’s District final, there’s a lot here with which to be impressed. 

DIVISION 5: Flint Powers 28, Millington 7 – This arguably was the stunner of the weekend – Millington was ranked No. 2, Powers unranked – but maybe shouldn’t be as big of a shock. The Cardinals indeed were undefeated, and Powers has three losses. But those came to No. 1 Lansing Catholic, Division 7 No. 1 Saginaw Nouvel, and Class A Davison.

DIVISION 6: Ithaca 28, Montrose Hill-McCloy 13 – Despite some close games elsewhere in this bracket, this one wins out because Ithaca is ranked No. 1 and Montrose came in No. 2. The Yellowjackets also knocked out the Rams last season on the way to winning the MHSAA title.

DIVISION 7: Hudson 22, Union City 14 – Both came in undefeated, with Hudson No. 3 and Union City tied for No. 7 in the final Associated Press poll. But Hudson ended Union City’s best season in a decade.

DIVISION 8: Mendon 28, Muskegon Catholic Central 21 – The conclusion of this incredibly competitive district pitted the teams that were tied for the top spot in the state poll heading into the playoffs. But the schedule won’t get too much easier for Mendon with five more of the top 10 still alive.

8-PLAYER: Carsonville-Port Sanilac 53, Bellaire 22 – The rematch of last season’s unofficial championship game went the Tigers’ way again. The teams also met in the regular-season finale last season after winning their respective leagues in something of an 8-player title game because the MHSAA didn’t begin sponsoring playoffs until this fall.

NUMBERS GAME

1 – Number of District championships won by Hemlock, thanks to Friday’s 27-20 win over Freeland in Division 5. The Huskies made the playoffs for the first time in 2005, and had fallen in first-round games three times before opening this postseason with a win over Carrollton two weeks ago.

519 – Carsonville-Port Sanilac’s points scored this season in 10 games (not counting the 1-0 result from another win by forfeit). That’s nearly 52 points per game, and has included outputs of 53, 57, 62, 70 and 91. 

5 – Overtimes combined needed to determine two Division 6 District finals. Iron Mountain outlasted McBain 36-35 in three extra periods, while Constantine downed Schoolcraft 37-30 in two.

27 – East Grand Rapids’ consecutive playoff wins. The run has included five straight MHSAA championships. The last postseason loss came in 2005 to Caledonia, which then went on to win the Division 3 title.

MORE FANTASTIC FINISHES

Port Huron 27, Rochester Adams 21 – A late 85-yard scoring run following a goal-line stand helped Port Huron advance in Division 3 and win its 10th game for the first time in program history. Click for more from the Port Huron Times-Herald.  

Birmingham Brother Rice 30, Farmington Hills Harrison 7 – Not quite close, but significant. Reigning MHSAA champion Harrison was again the favorite, and did play without its starting quarterback. But No. 7 Brother Rice will be a popular choice now to reach its first final since 2005.Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Mount Pleasant 35, Petoskey 28 – The Oilers trailed by two touchdowns on three occasions before coming away with a season-extending – and upset-avoiding – victory. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

Grass Lake 23, Leslie 22 – One of our Prep Zone games on FoxSportsDetroit.com, this one went down to the final minute. At the end, undefeated Grass Lake prevailed – but not without a scare. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.

Fowler 24, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 21 – Fowler was certainly the favorite, and tied for the No. 9 spot in the state poll. But the Eagles did have to outlast a fast start and then late run by the Irish, last season’s MHSAA champion. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

UP NEXT – REGIONAL FINALS and 8-player SEMIS

DIVISION 1: Detroit Cass Tech (8-3) at Warren DeLaSalle (9-2) – 7 p.m. Friday at SCS Lake Shore – DeLaSalle can reach 10 wins for the third time in six seasons, and its list of fallen foes is, as usual, impressive. But Cass Tech ranks well with the best the Pilots have seen. The Technicians own a win over Detroit Martin Luther King (see below) with losses to Division 2 No. 1 Farmington Hills Harrison and twice to Detroit Crockett (also mentioned below).

DIVISION 2: Detroit Martin Luther King (8-3) at Wyandotte Roosevelt (10-1) – 7 p.m. Friday – Roosevelt is 10-1 for the second straight season, and tied for the No. 7 spot in the state poll. But unranked King might be the best three-loss team this side of East Grand Rapids. All three of King’s this fall were to teams still alive, and by a combined 11 points.  

DIVISION 3: East Grand Rapids (8-3) at Holland (9-2) – 1 p.m. Saturday – A tremor was felt all the way from the lake shore when Holland knocked off East Grand Rapids 30-22 in Week 2. And that was just the start, as Holland has gone on to earn its second playoff berth ever and first postseason win. Still, the Pioneers came into the postseason ranked No. 9, while Holland is unranked and at least some people’s underdog.

DIVISION 4: Detroit Crockett (10-1) at Marine City (11-0) – 7 p.m. Friday – Top-ranked Marine City has taken out Nos. 6 and 8 from the top 10 so far, and now will try to do the same with No. 5 Crockett. But Crockett’s only loss was to Division 2 District champ King, which Crockett then beat in a rematch. The Rockets and strong-armed quarterback Brian Blackburn made the Semifinals last season, and won’t go quietly.  

DIVISION 5: Menominee (9-2) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (9-2) – 3 p.m. Saturday – West Catholic is the reigning Division 5 champion, but had to escape Menominee 24-20 in a Semifinal along the way last fall. The Maroons always are a point of curiousity because of their thriving single wing offense, and come in ranked No. 5 to West Catholic’s No. 7.

DIVISION 6: Morley-Stanwood (10-1) at Iron Mountain (10-0) – 1 p.m. Saturday – Morley-Stanwood has double figures wins for the third straight season, and already has taken out No. 6 Shelby and No. 8 Clare. Now the Mohawks will attempt the same against No. 3 Iron Mountain, which survived a close one against McBain to reach 10 wins for the fourth time in five seasons. 

DIVISION 7: Hudson (11-0) at Detroit Loyola (11-0) – 1 p.m. Saturday at Madison Heights Bishop Foley – Reigning champion Hudson has won its last seven playoff games and 11 of its last 12, but comes into this as a rare underdog ranked No. 3 with Loyola No. 2. That said, the Tigers have scored at least 35 points in all but two games this season. But Loyola has posted shutouts in five of its last six.

DIVISION 8: Crystal Falls Forest Park (9-1) at St. Ignace La Salle (11-0) – 7 p.m. Friday – It’s a rare day when Forest Park isn’t the heavy favorite to get down state – the No. 6 Trojans have played in seven of the last 11 Division 8 Finals. But No. 3 St. Ignace is having its best season since 1988 and dropped a season-high 55 points on Rudyard in the District final win.

8-PLAYER: Engadine (7-4) at Rapid River (10-1) – 1 p.m. Saturday --- These two are in the same league and faced each other during the regular season; Rapid River won 50-32. With all of the points scored in 8-player games, that’s not as wide a margin as it might seem. But Engadine still must slow down a Rapid River offense averaging 52 points per game – just as the Eagles did in upsetting Cedarville 36-14 last week in another rematch.