Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Playoffs: Pre-Districts in Review
December 13, 2011
A total of 272 MHSAA playoff football teams has been cut in half heading into this weekend's District finals. Here's one take on the highlights from the opening weekend of the postseason – and a look at some matchups to watch as we move on to the next round.
See a game or a highlight I should've mentioned? Post below and let us know. And click here for results, schedules and more.
GREAT EIGHT
DIVISON 1: Canton 24, Plymouth 21 – These schools are located about five football throws from each other, and were ranked adjacently in the final Associated Press state poll; Canton was No. 6 and Plymouth was No. 5. Three weeks earlier, Plymouth beat Canton 31-30. Plymouth also knocked Canton out last season.
DIVISION 2: Rochester Adams 26, Oxford 20 – Rochester Adams has more experience this time of year, with 15 straight playoff appearances, while Oxford was making its first since 2008. But thanks to a 22-16 win over Adams on Sept. 30, Oxford was ranked No. 6 (Adams was unranked) and home for this one, which qualifies this as an upset.
DIVISION 3: Adrian 28, Carleton Airport 21 – This gets the upset tag as well, with Carleton Airport entering No. 8 in Division 3 and Adrian unranked. The Maples had snuck into the playoffs at 5-4 and after losing their regular-season finale by 14 to Traverse City West.
DIVISION 4: Detroit Crockett 13, Detroit Country Day 12 – Country Day opened with a 12-0 lead, but Crockett – ranked No. 5 – emerged with a Pre-District win for the third straight season. Crockett also downed Country Day in last season’s District final.
DIVISION 5: Hemlock 21, Carrollton 14 (OT) – These former Tri-Valley Conference West league mates needed overtime to settle their Pre-District game. Hemlock finished the regular season among those getting votes in Division 6 before moving into 5 for the postseason.
DIVISION 6: Morley Stanwood 10, Shelby 7 – Maybe the finish of the night (see explanation and link below). Also a notable upset, as Shelby was ranked No. 6 heading in – although both were 8-1 during the regular season.
DIVISION 7: Iron River West Iron County 26, Ironwood 22 – These two actually aren’t that close to each other, in case you’re wondering from their communities' similar iron-themed names. But they are league rivals going back decades, and West Iron made up for last season’s loss to Ironwood with two wins this fall – by four points this time and five when they met in mid-September.
DIVISION 8: Muskegon Catholic 28, Saugatuck 0 – This game had statewide eyes watching, with Muskegon Catholic tied for the top spot in the final state poll and No. 5 Saugatuck the reigning state runner-up.
8-PLAYER: Bellaire 76, Akron-Fairgrove 58 – The number players on the field might be fewer, but the number of points frequently are more in the 8-player game.
NUMBERS GAMES
8: Number of overtimes, combined, needed to decide two Division I games. Romeo needed five to outlast Troy Athens 34-31, and Grand Blanc downed Holt 59-52 in three overtimes.
1: Total playoff victories for Holland High, thanks to a 27-16 win over Stevensville Lakeshore in Division 3. This was Holland's second playoff game ever.
111: Number of points combined scored by Grand Blanc and Holt, which ranks 14th in the MHSAA football record book for most points scored by two teams in a game in which the losing team finished with at least 40.
13: Number of straight seasons Marine City has led off the playoffs with a win, going back to 1999, and including this fall’s 45-21 victory against Croswell-Lexington. Marine City was ranked No. 1 in Division 4 and Croswell-Lexington was No. 8.
MORE FANTASTIC FINISHES
Walled Lake Central 20, Lake Orion 17 – A fake punt followed by a 15-yard penalty eventually turned into a 20-yard winning field goal by Bryan Maxwell – and the defeat of last season’s Division 1 state champion. (Read more in the Detroit Free Press).
Temperance Bedford 28, Brighton 20 – Brighton jumped to a 20-0 lead in this Division 1 game. But Temperance Bedford quarterback Aaron Czesak ran for 133 of his 164 yards during the second half including the 27-yarder midway through the fourth quarter to give his team its final advantage. (Find out more in the Livingston County Daily Press & Argus).
Morley Stanwood 10, Shelby 7 – This was named above, but worth mentioning a second time in more detail. After Morley-Stanwood took the lead with a field goal with 2 seconds to play, Shelby brought the kickoff back to inside the Mohawks’ 1-yard line – but didn’t cross it. (Read about it in Muskegon Chronicle).
Crystal Falls Forest Park 50, Stephenson 43 – The score itself means it was a wild night. (Find out the details in the Iron County Reporter.)
UP NEXT – DISTRICT FINALS
DIVISION 1: Canton (8-2) at Detroit Catholic Central (9-1) – By beating its closest rival, Canton earned a shot at No. 2 Detroit Catholic Central. DCC knocked Canton out in 2009.
DIVISION 2: Muskegon (8-2) at Lowell (9-1) – The Red Arrows are ranked No. 2 and Muskegon is No. 3. They’ve met in the playoffs the last three seasons, with the winner of this matchup twice eventually claiming a state title.
DIVISION 3: East Grand Rapids (7-3) at Grand Rapids Christian (10-0) – Their meeting two weeks ago – a 50-49 Eagles win – was arguably the most hyped regular-season game west of I-75. East Grand Rapids is No. 9 and Grand Rapids Christian is ranked No. 2.
DIVISION 4: Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (10-0) at Marine City (10-0) – These are two of four undefeated teams left among the top six in this state poll, with Marine City entering No. 1 and Notre Dame Prep No. 6 – and coming off a win over No. 7 Marysville last week.
DIVISION 5: Portland (9-1) at Lansing Catholic (10-0) – These two determined the CAAC White title Oct. 8, a game the top-ranked Cougars won 42-24. But if No. 3 Portland has figured out a way to at least slow Lansing Catholic quarterback Cooper Rush, the rematch could be much closer.
DIVISION 6: Ithaca (10-0) at Montrose (10-0) – Ithaca is No. 1 and Montrose is No. 2, and that right there is enough to make this arguably the biggest game of the weekend in any division. Throw in that the Yellowjackets are the reigning state champions and are riding a 24-game winning streak – and that Montrose’s last loss was to Ithaca in last season’s Regional final – and it gets that much more intriguing.
DIVISION 7: Royal Oak Shrine (9-1) at Detroit Loyola (10-0) – This might not look like as great a matchup given Loyola’s 40-0 Prep Bowl win over Shrine just two weeks ago. But Shrine still hung on to a No. 10 ranking to start the playoffs; Loyola came in No. 2.
DIVISION 8: Muskegon Catholic Central (9-1) at Mendon (10-0) – Arguably the state’s toughest District closes with a final matching the two teams that finished the regular season tied for the No. 1 spot in the state poll. The only things separating these two are a Muskegon Catholic loss (to a Class A school) and Mendon’s receiving one more top-spot vote from the Associated Press’ five-person panel.
8-PLAYER: Eben Junction Superior Central (8-2) at Rapid River (9-1) – Of the eight teams remaining in the 8-player tournament, these two had the fourth and third-highest playoff points, respectively, at the end of the regular season.